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Kingwood36 thats what ive been telling them but they keep asking me “ how strong will this get”? Hope we can get some better clarification from the models in the next 3-4 days, Ill just stick with what you said though

hazards outlooks

days 3-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

days8-14 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php


6 hour QPF loop, days 1-7 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

We have a week to watch this at bare minimum. Models will change. We can expect that. Just watch the trends.

Models change every run! We honestly don’t need the rain around here.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:45 pm B69193F3-BFA2-4920-97DC-27E92B59943C.jpegThat is all.

Dead

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:48 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:45 pm B69193F3-BFA2-4920-97DC-27E92B59943C.jpegThat is all.

Dead

I don’t post and I feel this! Gonna be a long summer....

I just would hate to see Louisiana get hit ..again

Models will continue to change. Most Euro ensembles have this heading towards the general area of the central Texas coast. A few hit Louisiana. I think we have to wait a few more days to know what we are dealing with.

Lots of dust out there migrating to the west:

18z GFS has slightly trended back to the west. 12z GFS run had the system making landfall on the Florida border. 18z takes it more towards eastern Lousiana, have to watch and see if this west trend continues

Chances have increased to 30% in the latest TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure is expected to form by early next week over
the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Subsequent slow development is possible as this system drifts
slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 4:54 pm Lots of dust out there migrating to the west:

I do like that

not shocked they upped the formation chances, especially since models are agreeing something will develop

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... length=120

from the Discussion, Gulf of Mexico section https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... WDAT.shtml?

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low pressure is expected to form early next week over the SW Gulf. Subsequent slow development of this system is possible as it drifts northwestward to northward.

Im no weather expert but wouldnt high pressure over the gulf help to reduce wind shear?

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 11, 2021 7:19 pm Im no weather expert but wouldnt high pressure over the gulf help to reduce wind shear?

Yes, but the ridge is going to break-down next week.

A trough will likely pick this one up and send it to the east.

I think its better to say possible than likely, depends on the strength of the trough and where it is located as forecasting ridges and the placement of troughs over 7 days out is pretty unreliable ,it also depends on where that circulation develops, once that happens we should get a better idea of where this is going

The HOU-GAL NWS sum it up very well in this afternoons AFD:

TROPICAL...
There is precious little more to say here that I haven`t already
said in this space the past couple of days. However, we have now
drawn near enough that the Bay of Campeche is appearing as an area
with a low potential of development (as opposed to none) in the
next five days.

Details continue to vary wildly from model to model, and from run
to run. The outcome of any one deterministic model is still of
little value at this point. Rather, the broad consensus across
the guidance that the environment appears favorable enough for
tropical development of some sort is the main takeaway.

Please continue to keep up with the latest information for the
latest information on development potential. NHC Tropical Weather
Outlooks are issued four times daily at 1 am, 7 am, 1 pm, and 7
pm. Locally specific information will come out of our office as it
is developed, either through products such as this AFD, or through
social media.

00Z model suites are running. Let’s see if the models trend west!

I’m not sure what the CPC is seeing but after taking a look at the latest GFS and Euro, I don’t see much of a chance for rain at all through the entire period. Looks to me like summer has started here in southeast TX.