September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[jasons2k]

Yep the sun isn’t as bright as it was. Has more of that orange tint to it instead of bright white. Part of it could be all the crap in the air right now too. But yeah the sun angle, longer shadows, less humidity, shorter days all make it seem fall like…at least for Texas anyway.

I haven’t invested much at all in the current model solutions. After all, look at what happened with 91L. It’s a mess right now. Perhaps by this weekend things will get fleshed out.

[DoctorMu]

Enjoying this week and drier air, if a bit hot during the day.

Looks like unsettled whether next week, although the amount of rain and where is far from an agreement. Expecting a high gradient from the coast - inland per the Ensembles.

[Scott747]

Yeah I'm not sure what that poster is talking about. The vorticity is plenty strong on this run. It's actually a little 'wetter' even though it's more coastal or just offshore. Could end up with one of these situations of a 25-50 mile difference having implications on any potential flooding issues.

Still probably a toss up with what the NHC will do. I could see a 10/20% area highlighted in the BoC sometime late tomorrow or Thursday,

Highlighted area now in the BoC for this weekend into early next week. Much like what the GFS has been hinting at the strongest vorticity/chance is around Veracruz/Tampico before it moves inland. The 6z GFS does continue to split off a piece of energy towards the upper texas coast but very unlikely anything would try and develop.

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave over the western Caribbean
Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to
support some gradual development of the system before it moves
into mainland Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Dry air mass over the region is firmly entrenched behind weak front earlier this week and last night. This will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall.

Pattern will undergo significant changes late Saturday into Sunday as a tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea (see NHC outlook below) combines with a westward moving inverted trough axis and pool of deep tropical moisture to bring an increase in rain chances along the TX coast. Surge of deep tropical moisture looks to begin to arrive along the TX coast as early as late Saturday evening, but more likely and much more substantial on Sunday as bone dry PWS increase from near or less than an inch early Saturday to well over 2.0 inches on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf of Mexico will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week and global models ae largely in agreement on this trough axis and surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday-Wednesday. Trough axis sort of lays along the TX coast early next week in the height weakness field over the area. Low level convergence will be maximized on the SE side of this feature or near the coast and offshore during this period where copious rainfall is likely.

Significant rainfall is certainly possible into mid next week with this type of pattern in place, but these patterns tend to favor the coastline and offshore waters for the largest totals while inland areas tend to see much lower amounts. Global models have been showing some QPF bullseyes over the area and offshore suggesting at times excessive rainfall will be possible.

This type of pattern could also result in close in weak tropical cyclone formation. Several models have been bouncing around with this idea over the last several days showing weak closed surface lows along the MX or TX coastline next week. While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming. This will be something that will have to be monitored closely next week especially if convection offshore becomes sustained.

Rainfall totals near the coast will likely add up to several inches with a fairly sharp cut off inland north of I-10 in both rain chances and amounts. Would not at all be surprised to see a location near the coast with 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:

[Cpv17]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Dry air mass over the region is firmly entrenched behind weak front earlier this week and last night. This will yield hot days and “coolish” nights into Saturday with no chance of rainfall.

Pattern will undergo significant changes late Saturday into Sunday as a tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea (see NHC outlook below) combines with a westward moving inverted trough axis and pool of deep tropical moisture to bring an increase in rain chances along the TX coast. Surge of deep tropical moisture looks to begin to arrive along the TX coast as early as late Saturday evening, but more likely and much more substantial on Sunday as bone dry PWS increase from near or less than an inch early Saturday to well over 2.0 inches on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Gulf of Mexico will become widespread during the weekend and into early next week and global models ae largely in agreement on this trough axis and surge of moisture along the TX coast from Sunday-Wednesday. Trough axis sort of lays along the TX coast early next week in the height weakness field over the area. Low level convergence will be maximized on the SE side of this feature or near the coast and offshore during this period where copious rainfall is likely.

Significant rainfall is certainly possible into mid next week with this type of pattern in place, but these patterns tend to favor the coastline and offshore waters for the largest totals while inland areas tend to see much lower amounts. Global models have been showing some QPF bullseyes over the area and offshore suggesting at times excessive rainfall will be possible.

This type of pattern could also result in close in weak tropical cyclone formation. Several models have been bouncing around with this idea over the last several days showing weak closed surface lows along the MX or TX coastline next week. While any sort of surface low that may form next week would help to focus rainfall in that particular area, it is unclear where any low may form if at all and generally does not change the overall wet pattern that is incoming. This will be something that will have to be monitored closely next week especially if convection offshore becomes sustained.

Rainfall totals near the coast will likely add up to several inches with a fairly sharp cut off inland north of I-10 in both rain chances and amounts. Would not at all be surprised to see a location near the coast with 10-12 inches by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecasted Rainfall Amounts:

Srain, what do you think about the heaviest totals shifting east of us into southwestern LA?

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 090919
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
419 AM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021

..SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
The next cold front appears to be moving into our far northern CWA
this morning (mainly based loosely on dewpoints). Further south at
and near the coast, the return of some low-level moisture/SE winds
will keep the possibility of patchy fog in place through mid morn-
ing or so. Otherwise, no other significant forecast issues expected
for the rest of short term as a drier and slightly cooler air mass
settles over the region today/tonight. Afternoon temperatures will
still be on the warm side today (mid/lower 90s)...but lows tonight
(mid 60s north to mid/upper 70s south/coast) should make up for it.

This quiet/dry pattern will persist into tomorrow/tomorrow night as
the surface high over the Southern Plains drifts into the middle MS
River Valley. This will allow for the N/NE low-level winds today to
shift more to the E tomorrow. Highs tomorrow could be a couple deg-
rees lower with lows ranging from the 60s inland to mid 70s coast.
41

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
On Saturday, a tropical wave (currently in the Caribbean) should
be positioned in the Bay of Campeche with the trof axis extending
into the nw Gulf. This axis, along with a weakness in the mid
levels stretching from the Bay of Campeche toward FL, will be
making some slow wnw progress toward the Mexico & Tx coast this
weekend. Expect a gradual increase in moisture and perhaps some
iso-sct precip offshore & near the coast Sat. A transition to a
much more tropical airmass and higher rain chances occur Sunday
into Monday as PW`s climb well above 2"...esp across the southern
2/3 of the CWA.

A well defined trof axis should be situated near the coast Sunday
night into Monday...with some considerable llvl speed convergence
in place along with a diffluent flow aloft. This should initiate
widespread shra/tstms overnight which more than likely will persist
thru the day Monday. There have been some signals in the models
the past few days indicating the potential for some heavy
rainfall - generally somewhere south of I-10. Bullseyes of 5+ inches
have noted (though inconsistent timing placement between
model-to-model and from run-to-run). Way too early for any
specifics this far out, but something we need to keep an eye on.
Should the precip end up setting up further offshore it could just
as easily limit inland amounts...

Looks like a fairly wet period into midweek with coastal
troffiness persisting. Will probably see a fairly typical precip
pattern with this type of set-up: shra/tstms developing near or
off the coast late at night...gradually expanding inland during
the day...followed by a brief lull in the evening. Rinse & repeat
daily.

Llvl focus should become less defined late Wed & Thurs, but
shortwave moving sewd from the Rockies should generally solidify
the weakness positioned aloft and maintain a continued chance of
sct precip into late week. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
The continuing low dewpoint spreads for inland coastal sites should
keep the mention of some brief patchy fog in through mid morning or
so. Otherwise, the next cold front looks to be moving into our nor-
thern CWA at this time. No precip expected with FROPA and this line
should move to the coast by late/mid morning. This dry and slightly
cooler air mass will allow for VFR conditions to persist these next
couple of days. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Benign wx should prevail the next couple days. Winds and seas
gradually increase this weekend and a combination of
caution/advisory flags may be needed Sun-Tue. With a longer fetch
of ese/se winds setting up, tide levels will be on the rise as
well. Unsettled weather is expected in the coastal waters Sunday
well into late next week with several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH`s will bottom out in the 20`s north of I-10 today. Though winds
will remain below red flag advisory criteria, fuels are dry. Use
caution if burning today. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 66 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 70 93 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 77 89 77 89 / 0 0 0 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

[srainhoutx]

We will have to monitor the progress of another upper trough mid to late next Cpv17. If the trough digs S like the current one that brought drier air into Texas, there is the possibility that heavier rains could shift E in time. Coastal Texas will still have to monitor this weekend into early next week. I'm always mindful of close in rapid development in this sort of early Fall pattern just like with TS Mindy yesterday afternoon.

[don]

0Z Euro redevelops the low as it moves to the coastal bend,after moving ashore Mexico and riding the coast line north. It also shows some impressive rainfall totals mainly along and south of I-10.Like Srain mentioned I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a quick spin up of a TC along the coast, like Imelda or TS Mindy yesterday.

[don]

Up to 30% now

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave over northeastern
Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea is forecast to emerge over
the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of
the system before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Cromagnum]

Is this winter supposed to be cold or colder than normal? I hope so.

I hope so to! I'd rather it be cold and be without power then be hotter than hell and without power..last years freeze wasn't that bad..just a bunch of spoiled texans lol jk

I agree! I hope we have a really cold winter.

Careful what you wish for. I like cold weather too, but don't need a lot more damage to fight with.

[Texaspirate11]

I do hope the heaviest rainfall stays off shore

[Scott747]

12z GFS is similar to the 6z. It tries to develop a weak reflection on the southern end a few times just offshore around Veracruz and then Tampico.

It also briefly tries to do so on the northern lobe of energy that's moving towards the upper texas coast and extreme se la.

Run ends up a little drier and clearing out quicker with the only focus for a small patch of heavy rain around the border with that northern area of energy.

[Stratton20]

I could use a good 1-3 inches of rain here, and I got a feeling that this wave might surprise us, seeing what 91L did yesterday, im skeptical of the models showing no development

[Scott747]

And I thought I'd wait and let this little disturbance to clear out but the GFS has been hinting at yet another disturbance getting into the BoC. Begins almost exactly like the current disturbance in the Gulf of Honduras before crossing over into the BoC and developing with a track (in the long range) towards n mex/lower texas coast.

[Cpv17]

I feel like this is a boom or bust event and it has a higher chance of busting right now. I also feel like most of the heavier rains will stay offshore and into Louisiana. Just the way I see things right now. I could easily be wrong. Still think we’ll know a lot more by tomorrow 12z.

[Cromagnum]

Need to spread some fall fertilizer and preemergent herbicide soon. Of course some rain helps, but I don't want it washed away in a gulley washer either.

[Stratton20]

Latest WPC outlook could be a mess next week,

[don]

12Z EURO showing a tropical storm making landfall in north Mexico and then moving north along the coast into Texas.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 091758
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1258 PM CDT Thu Sep 9 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. Scattered clouds around 6000 feet near LFK/CXO/IAH/SGR per
AMDAR with northeasterly winds 5-12 knots and could get a few
gusts near 15kts. This evening winds relax and skies clear out.
Friday NE winds becoming E 5-12 knots.

[Stratton20]

DON that is interesting as this scenario could allow for more rain further inland , i would take this here in CS, anything to break the heat here