BlueJay wrote:Good luck to your son redneckweather!
Thanks for your post Ptarmigan. I will appreciate the warm weather even more knowing that it doesn't last as many months as the cold!
I can report 0.03 inches of rain action in my backyard today!
The "score" for June 2014 so far is:
WET and wild -2
HIGH AND DRY - 6
Think again, Blue Jay. Latest NWS AFD spells
trouble (captial T):
00
FXUS64 KHGX 082328
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HARD TO TIME
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND GENERATE PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS PORTION OF OUR AREA. HAVE VCSH UP NORTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS DUE TO CURRENT ACTIVITY. REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET
AFTER THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. GOING WITH VCSH TOMORROW MORNING...
THEN VCTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TIMING COULD END UP BEING
WAY OFF IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z 4KM NCEP WRF VERIFIED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE TX
NICELY TODAY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE HEADING NNE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE W/ LOSS OF HEATING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS INTO N TX & PANHANDLE AREA OVERNIGHT WHERE
MCS DEVELOPMENT IS A DECENT BET IN ASSOCIATION W/ DIGGING S/W,
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, JET. REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY APPROACH N
PARTS OF SE TX TOWARD MORNING. EXACTLY HOW THE WX PLAYS OUT
BETWEEN MON MORNING AND TUE AFTN CAN GO SEVERAL WAYS BUT HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT IT`LL EVENTUALLY BECOME MESOSCALE DRIVEN - IN WHICH
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SINGLE MODEL AT THIS POINT HAS THINGS PEGGED
IS QUITE LOW.
FOR EXAMPLE:
1. WILL THE REMNANTS OF TONIGHTS CONVECTION CRUISE THRU THE AREA
DURING THE DAY - THEREBY STABILIZING THE ATMOS AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF MON NIGHT?
2. OR WILL THE OUTFLOW(S) EVENTUALLY FIZZLE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR THE
CWA IN THE MORNING, SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THEN GET A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION MON NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF SLIDES INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTH?
3. SHOULD THE CONVECTION MOVE THRU IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS EARLY TUE
MORNING, WILL THAT BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT TSTM CHANCES IN ASSOCIATION
W/ FCST STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY & SEABREEZE TUE AFTN (I-10/HWY
59 CORRIDOR)?
CURRENT GUESS WOULD BE SOMETHING CLOSER TO #2, BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
JUST BROADBRUSHED 30-60% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL
HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO FURTHER TWEAK AS THINGS EVOLVE. DID MENTION
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE ACROSS N 2/3 TUE WITH FCST 1500-2500
J/KG CAPES, -6 TO -8 LI`S & LFQ OF JET & NOTABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
(PARTICULARLY NE PARTS).
UPPER TROF SHOULD PULL AWAY LATE TUE AND STALLED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD WASHOUT ON WED. H5 RIDGE OUT OF MEXICO & NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD THEN BE THE OVERALL WX PATTERN DURING THE 2ND HALF OF
THE WEEK. TODAY`S MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
ACTIVE NW FLOW COMPARED TO YDAYS RUNS SO THREW SOME 20%`ERS BACK
INTO THE FCST AS A PLACE HOLDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH POSSIBILITY OF
SOME PASSING UPPER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. 47
Hate to go into drama queen mode, but it sounds like we're going to take a real beating tomorrow and tuesday. Stay tuned, please.
