000
FXUS64 KHGX 121959
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BROUGHT SOME OF
OUR TEMPERATURES (2 PM READINGS) CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
THUNDER AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TOO. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK THIS EVENING...THEN A FAST EASTWARD MOVING
STORM COMPLEX (SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLY SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS TOO) IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO
MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. IF WE CAN HANDLE WHAT RAIN
FALLS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM AND ITS HEAVY RAINFALL
TOO DUE TO ITS EXPECTED FAST EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SPC HAS PARTS OF THE STATE UNDER THEIR DAY 1
SLIGHT RISK. BACK OVER HERE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND ON THROUGH
MONDAY...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 1 INCH WITH
ISOLATED 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. WILL
CARRY LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW
DUE TO EXPECTED TEMPORARY STABILIZATION...BUT THE SLOW MOVING WEST
TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD SUPPORT MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS
WE HEAD ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OUR AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE NOW EXTENDED RAIN CHANCES ON INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT LOOKS DELAYED ONCE AGAIN. 42
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... WITH LOCALLY ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORM. MESSY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH AN EFFECTIVE SHORTWAVE PARADE
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE STILL WAFFLING A BIT REGARDING THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY... WITH SOME INDICATION THAT IT MAY REACH PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING. ANY WIND
SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WOULD BE BRIEF... WITH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT
WEEKEND.
HUFFMAN
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TERMINALS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... WITH A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES HAVING ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT TEMPO MENTION OF
TSRA THROUGH 23Z. ADDITIONALLY... KHGX VAD WIND PROFILER IS SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW
ISOLATED... ELEVATED GUSTS NEAR TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HUFFMAN
&&
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
Looks like we could have rain and thunderstorms tonight to early tomorrow morning.