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HGX, CRP and EWX NWS are mentioning the Caribbean Disturbance in afternoon AFD's...

HGX...

AS FOR EXTENDED GUIDANCE...THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYS-
TEM/SOMETHING FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ITS TRACK AS IT NEARS THE YUCATAN...BUT THEN THINGS GET SHAKY FOR
ITS EVENTUAL MOTION WITHIN THE GULF. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE PROGS
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH THAT IS
SUPPOSED TO BE OVER THE SRN STATES. LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS CRP IN
ITS SIGHTS BUT THIS SHOULD/IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE DAYS GO ON.
41

CRP...

REGARDING AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
WHERE AND HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR BEYOND THE DAY 7 FORECAST...
AND THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE COMING DAYS.



EWX...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE PATHWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WILL BE OPEN OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF AND
GEM (CANADIAN MODEL) RUNS PLACING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS COULD MOVE INTO THE GULF.

Last VIS view before sunset in the Caribbean...

Boy have I been down for the count. Can someone update me on what happened to 92l?

Allen offers a great site for weather guidance (models).

Ed Mahmoud wrote:That raleighWx site so rocks!!!

It's pretty much the best on the web, imo

Some sites you have to pay to see this stuff...

Something tells me that 93L will develop into Alex soon.

Just look at the SST. The water is very warm. Warm enough to take a bath.

ABNT20 KNHC 212349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

#5
A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

000
AXNT20 KNHC 212357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE ERN CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 22N68W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO 10N69W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.
THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WAS MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 63W-69W...AND FROM 13N-19N
BETWEEN 69W-75W AFFECTIONS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SHIP suggests a landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. We shall see...

I really expected 92l to do what 93l is apparantly going to do. Next week promises to be very telling with this system. I really hope this stays away from the oil spill.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO FORM W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
14N72W SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY.
THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WAS MOVING AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS.

So 93L will develop on the remnant wave of 92L?

interesting....I did see some low level spin to the west before lights out.....I think the model runs are jacked right now though. Left this morning and right this evening. The GFS in about 2hrs will be telling as well as the EURO at 1:30am....someone needs to stay up for that....

Man, as soon as the media latches on to this its going to be doom and gloom all over the headlines...

Paul wrote:Man, as soon as the media latches on to this its going to be doom and gloom all over the headlines...

Yep. You're right.

obviously not a great tropical model, but the 0z NAM closes off a low by 30hr southwest of jamaica:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

i see where some are talking about a possible landfall in the wgom what kind of time frame would we be looking at if that situation happened???

Paul wrote:
interesting....I did see some low level spin to the west before lights out.....I think the model runs are jacked right now though. Left this morning and right this evening. The GFS in about 2hrs will be telling as well as the EURO at 1:30am....someone needs to stay up for that....

Man, as soon as the media latches on to this its going to be doom and gloom all over the headlines...

I don't like that. Media hype. Tonight at ten, Hurricane Alex barrel towards Houston as a Category 5.

redfish1 wrote:i see where some are talking about a possible landfall in the wgom what kind of time frame would we be looking at if that situation happened???

Middle of next week - If it were to be a threat.

Not as wild as the earlier run. Still takes it much further to the NW and across central Cuba.

0z HWRF -