March Weather Disccusion: Severe Storms Possible Tues/Wed

[C2G]

There was lightning and thunder from about 3 AM until I left for home at 6 AM on Galveston island. Driving home at 6:05 AM all of us ran into a very intense cell just about at the top of the causeway. Intense lightning, extremely heavy rain, and winds I believed would push me into Galveston Bay.
The very heavy rain lasted all the way to I45 and 517, so it was a slow drive home.

[srainhoutx]

It's a bit cool here this morning. 35F for a low, but with plentiful sunshine, it should warm nicely today. The SPC currently has a Slight Risk for areas to our N and E. HGX mentions it is not buying all the moisture being shunted to our E. We will see...

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE LOWER MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
EMERGING INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
BEGIN TO TURN ENE INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS VARIED AT THE ORIENTATION/ SPEED OF THE
FEATURE.

...ERN PARTS OF SRN PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE LOWER MS VLY...
STRONG SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL
TRANSPORT MODIFIED POLAR AIR MASS NWD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTN
AND NIGHT. BY EVENING/NIGHT...MID-50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE COMMON
AS FAR N AS ERN OK/OZARKS AND THE MID-60S ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST
AND LWR MS VLY. MOISTURE WILL GLIDE BENEATH A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WITH A CAP PRESENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY YIELD AFTN CLOUDS AND DELAY SUBSTANTIAL
HEATING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.

STRONGEST INSOLATION WILL TAKE PLACE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE
POINT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT IN SE KS...ERN OK AND
NCNTRL/NERN TX. HERE...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CINH/ SFC-BASED
TSTM INITIATION LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND THE COOLING MID-TROPOSPHERE WILL FOSTER
LARGE HAIL IN ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORM. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN STORM LIFE-CYCLES.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME LINEAR RAPIDLY AS STRONG ASCENT BEGINS TO
SPREAD EWD DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING. NRN FRINGES OF THE EVOLVING
QLCS SHOULD RACE ENE INTO THE MO OZARKS/MID-MS VLY WHERE SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AT MORE NLY LATITUDES. A COUPLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER.

MEANWHILE...A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ACROSS WRN/SRN AR...ERN TX AND MUCH OF LA/WRN-SWRN MS TUESDAY
NIGHT AMIDST STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE ESEWD OVERNIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING STORMS ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALONG THE QLCS...WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASINGLY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
IN LA/SWRN MS.

..RACY.. 03/06/2011

[svrwx0503]

It looks like we are going to have to wait until early next week, around the 14th or so before we see some beneficial rains. Medium range progs have been hinting at some decent energy making its way a bit further south across the region next Monday. This morning's 12z GFS continues to show some type of convective complex developing across the hill country and south central Texas Monday morning then translating it eastward during the day. At this time instability looks rather marginal so severe weather doesn't look like much of a threat but decent moisture and upper level support would likely produce some much needed rain across the area.

[sleetstorm]

What weather do the models show for Spring Break next week?

[wxman57]

What weather do the models show for Spring Break next week?

What location? Downtown Houston? South Padre Island? Cancun?

For Houston, latest GFS forecasts a significant rain even next Mon/Tue followed by mild temps and dry weather the rest of the week. European sees no such rainfall event early next week. Just mild and dry. I'd tend to believe the Euro's forecast for now. Mostly cloudy with light to moderate onshore flow. Lows in the low-mid 60s, highs in the mid to upper 70s.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like showers under the cap for us today. Some storms may fire just ahead and along the dryline later this afternoon/evening, but probably N of Metro Houston. Our neighbors in Louisiana may well see a Moderate Risk before the day is out.

[srainhoutx]

For our NE TX and SE OK neighbors...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081911Z - 082115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING NOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE ESPECIALLY OVER N CNTRL TX WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
WELL INTO THE 70S F. MEANWHILE...CU HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER S CNTRL OK SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE 60S F.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE W
SIDE OF THE METROPLEX WWD...INDICATIVE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MIXING. HERE...HIGH BASED CU WERE DEVELOPING AS
WELL...BUT IN A REGION WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS.

CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT MIXES
EWD. CONTINUED HEATING AND ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

EWD PROGRESSION OF STORMS AND TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BY MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE E...WHILE CAPPING WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT
SWD.

..JEWELL.. 03/08/2011


ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch issued for NE TX/SE OK...

[srainhoutx]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TORNADO 2 N CLARKSVILLE 33.64N 95.06W
03/08/2011 RED RIVER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CHASERS AND SPOTTERS CONFIRM TORNADO ON THE GROUND...RAIN
WRAPPED. SEMI ON A CAR...TRAILERS FLIPPED...POWERLINES
DOWN...MANY ROOFS DAMAGED TO HOMES.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice a line of thunderstorms northeast of College Station. I think we could see some rain and thunder tonight while we sleep, probably around 3 AM.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains.php

[srainhoutx]

I had a little over tenth of an inch in the old rain bucket from yesterday and overnight. Sadly, rain chances are not looking that good for Sunday/Monday as well.

[wxman57]

I had a little over tenth of an inch in the old rain bucket from yesterday and overnight. Sadly, rain chances are not looking that good for Sunday/Monday as well.

Wow! That's some pretty heavy rain. I think I got about 1/4" of dust in mine.

[Ptarmigan]

I had a little over tenth of an inch in the old rain bucket from yesterday and overnight. Sadly, rain chances are not looking that good for Sunday/Monday as well.

This is not good. The cockroach ridge holds up again! Where's our RAID, I mean upper level low.

[Ptarmigan]

Here is what winter was like in the Upper Texas Coast from December to February.

Rainfall Total
7.56

This winter's rainfall total is 3.15 inches below normal of the average of 10.71 inches. This is based on 1895 to 2011 average.

Temperature
54.1

This winter's average temperature is 1 degree below normal of the average 55.1. This is based on 1895 to 2011 average.

Winter Rainfall
Mean
10.71

Median
10.19

Standard Deviation
3.46

Percentile
5th
5.98

25th
8.33

50th
10.19

75th
12.70

95th
16.66


Winter Temperature
Mean
55.1

Median
55.2

Standard Deviation
2.6

Percentile
5th
50.2

25th
53.6

50th
55.2

75th
56.5

95th
59.8

Data Source
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp

[redneckweather]

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[srainhoutx]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Yep. Upper Ridge=NO Rain...

[srainhoutx]

It appears there may be a chance of some rain, albeit light on Sunday into Monday. Capping will be the issue tomorrow, but a weaker cap and a bit stronger Upper Air disturbance and a touch stronger trough may do the trick for Monday. We will see. Also, don't forget to set those clocks forward tonight as we begin Daylight Saving Time.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers crossed...

[sleetstorm]

Are any of you ready for daylight savings time as far as the extra hour of sunlight to labor and play? I know that I am.

[wxman57]

I LOVE daylight savings time. Shifting the clocks ahead in March takes away a cold morning hour of sunshine and gives us an extra hour of heating during the afternoon, making the days warmer.

And, speaking of warmer, here's a meteogram from last night's GFS. Still no FORECAST of 80+ at IAH, but I think those upper 70s 2m temps will actually turn out to be 80+. Come on, 80s!! Time to put away the coat, gloves, hat and tights and break out the shorts and sleeveless jerseys for some long bike rides.