EPAC Hurricane Season 2011: Kenneth Quickly Weakening

[srainhoutx]

Watches/Warnings hoisted for the Mexican Coast...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 99.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 100.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

[srainhoutx]

RECON suggests we have Huricane Beatiz now...

URPN12 KNHC 201826
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP022011
A. 20/18:07:20Z
B. 16 deg 37 min N
102 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 70 kt
E. 144 deg 14 nm
F. 245 deg 74 kt
G. 143 deg 13 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 17 C / 1518 m
J. 22 C / 1520 m
K. 11 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2.5 nm
P. AF302 0102E BEATRIZ OB 09
MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:03:20Z
CURVED BAND S THRU NW

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011
200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 104.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BEATRIZ WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. BEATRIZ IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER
MANZANILLO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH... 150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BEATRIZ IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER WATER...WITH
WEAKENING FORECAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO...
JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

[srainhoutx]

The long range models are again developing a cyclone off the Gulf of Tehuantepec...

[srainhoutx]

The Euro, GFS and Canadian suggest a weak TC forming later in the week...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 3 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS BUT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 7 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS
A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932011_ep032011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107071252
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.2W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
101.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we may have Hurricane Calvin with the next advisory...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032011
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011

...CALVIN BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO JUST EAST OF PUERTO ANGEL IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BE DESIGNATED AS THE FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON.
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY
T1.5/25 KT...NHC ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDE5381 LOCATED ABOUT 70 NMI
NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 31 KT AT 06Z.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
ARE FORECASTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO ERODE AFTER 72
HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS BROAD HEAT-WAVE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH
OF THE GFDL/HWRF TRACKS AFTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR
TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION
THAT IS INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. MICROWAVE AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP
REPORT...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A FAIRLY TIGHT INNER
CORE WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AN INHIBITING
FACTOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 96 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATER TROPICAL CYCLONE GRAVEYARD SITUATED
WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 10.7N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 12.3N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM DORA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011

...DEPRESSION REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM DORA.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 92.3W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A RAGGED EYE BECAME APPARENT IN
INFRARED AND LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT
AMSR-E AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A BROKEN EYEWALL
THAT APPEARS TO BE CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 65 KT. THEREFORE...DORA
IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES WARM WATER AND REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS NHC DISCUSSION...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS
SHOWING ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN AT THE
UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72
HOURS...AS DORA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH SEVERAL
MODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MOST
RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED
EASTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE. IN RESPONSE...THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS
ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 13.4N 99.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

A beautiful picture of a cyclone offshore and not bothering anyone...

[srainhoutx]

96E continues to develop. Guidance suggests a NW track for the first few days paralleling the Coast. There have been some hints of a turn to the NE in a week or so toward the Baja. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILARY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY SOUTH OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 96.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

12Z...