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00Z...the first since re-activation...

srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

ticka1 wrote:srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

Sorry ticka1. Power was out from 6:25 to 9:02. Cooked dinner outside like a bit of a 'tropical season warm up'...

srainhoutx wrote:

ticka1 wrote:srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

Sorry ticka1. Power was out from 6:25 to 9:02. Cooked dinner outside like a bit of a 'tropical season warm up'...

Oh wow sorry about the power being out but at least you ate and got a little practice in - how did you lose power - from storms?

Thanks for the model link srainhoutx - hope it stays on and the house cools down quickly.

Time for sleep - later this week we might be watching something....

Remember it well, katdaddy. This system could pull a Rita, depending on how the ridge sets up. Path wise, I mean, not nessasarily strength.

Interesting to note the upper level winds in forecasting the path of 90L. A stronger, vs. weaker system. So many variables. I'd hate to be on the side of the NHC.

I think 90L has a good chance at development. The question is will 90L be a tropical storm or hurricane. I think when 90L does develop, I think it will be a small storm.

Katdaddy wrote:Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

I remember Humberto forming suddenly from thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall exactly one year before Ike did. As for computer models for 90L, they tend go right of the path.

Things are getting more interesting as convection is blowing up around the MLC and could be forming a LLC. The track is interesting as more models are pointing towards a middle Texas hit with a stronger system. We need to watch how convection sustains and if so how fast development occurs.

some more intense convection firing over the "center" last couple of hours. interested to see it in the morning. I think 90L is starting to realize itself

Andrew wrote:Things are getting more interesting as convection is blowing up around the MLC and could be forming a LLC. The track is interesting as more models are pointing towards a middle Texas hit with a stronger system. We need to watch how convection sustains and if so how fast development occurs.

HA! Andrew, you beat me to it. certainly looks interesting!

nuby3 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Things are getting more interesting as convection is blowing up around the MLC and could be forming a LLC. The track is interesting as more models are pointing towards a middle Texas hit with a stronger system. We need to watch how convection sustains and if so how fast development occurs.

HA! Andrew, you beat me to it. certainly looks interesting!

Yea I haven't done that often with work and all, but things are defiantly looking more interesting. I feel a busy couple days ahead will stir up some old members.

I've got a feeling this storm will be speaking Spanish.

Latest model runs:



Question: If this storm were to strengthen to say tropical storm or hurricane, would that cause a more northerly track? And why does it seem that any storm that enters the gulf lately makes a bee line right into mexico/south texas?

Thanks, Ed

RECON is scheduled to fly down and take a peek...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 26 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR TIP OF YUCATAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 27/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 27/1530Z
D. 22.0N 87.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z NEAR 23.0N 91.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

12Z...

If this ridge does not break down, then weak or strong, 90L will simply follow a path right into Spanish lessons. South Texas to near Corpus maybe is an option. Pin it down on Wednesday.

Is the ridge forecasted to break down?

It looks as if it will, but maybe not until after, or just as 90L approaches landfall towered the end of the weak. Let's look at it tomorrow. If this systems gets it's act together, and our ridge moves off to the east, then lookout NW Gulf region.