June 2025
Coming down in the Woodlands
Hopefully.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 04, 2025 8:31 pm Some interesting analogs about this summer ( july-september) being talked about on social media ( x) im hearing some folks talk about this summer looking similar to 2021 when we had a cooler and wetter summer here, some of the climate models, especially the NMME really keep july- september on the cooler and wetter side dowm here, maybe just maybe we wont have such a miserable summer overall
Looks like more rain could be coming. They could fizzle out.
We actually received 0.67 in at the house. TG. We might be able to avoid watering through next week if the NWS forecast is correct.
Guys and gals, it looks like this June will be a slosh-fest. I’m seeing steady rain chances almost daily for the next 14 days and beyond.
At least the mosquitos won’t be bad….right? Right???
At least the mosquitos won’t be bad….right? Right???
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
76
FXUS64 KHGX 051132
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Yesterday`s scattered storms did not go out quietly, producing
gusty winds and localized street flooding. But now we begin a
switch to heat having center stage, as near-record temperatures
are in the forecast this weekend. Some of the key things to take
from this forecast:
- Afternoon highs will be on a trend upwards starting in the low
90s today, just a bit above seasonal averages. By Sunday,
though, we`ll be looking for highs in the upper 90s and closer
to record values than is comfortable.
- Daytime heat will also be accompanied by warm nights held up by
humid onshore winds. Expect lows in the 70s area-wdie, and those
near the coast getting hung up around 80 degrees.
- And if that`s not enough, high humidity and plenty of sun will
add to the potential for heat stress. No matter how you slice
it, be it heat index values around/above 105, or seeing Wet Bulb
Globe Temperature and HeatRisk showing wide swaths of the area
at a High/Major threat level (4 of 5 for both tools), we`re
looking at heat that is outpacing what we`d expect for how early
in the summer we are. One factor that could help mitigate
concern is if we get enough haze from a Saharan dust outbreak to
hold temperatures down a few degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Afternoon storms became evening storms, as a fairly supportive
environment for convective activity yesterday definitely performed
up to expectations. However, the day`s storms have finally wrapped
up, and we`ll begin a transition to a less rainy (but not
necessarily dry, since onshore winds will keep up humidity) and
hotter stretch of days. This short term period doesn`t really get
into the big heat expected this weekend, but it`s going to do a
lot of the heavy lifting to get us there.
The big thing to look at forecast-wise in the short term is
actually probably not so much at the surface, as we`ll be looking
at the evolution of an upper ridge becoming centered right over
the Texas Gulf coast. With today still seeing the ridge building
in, I`ve got today as fairly seasonable. Highs in the lower 90s
(just a touch above average) with some slight chances of showers
and storms, starting with lighter showers near the coast and
gradually spreading inland through the afternoon. Any activity
today will be more isolated than yesterday, and should die off
more in line with sunset.
The upper ridge continues to grow in strength tomorrow, with at
least a 592 dm high at 500 mb indicating strong likelihood that
we`ll see even warmer temperatures tomorrow than today, more
pushing into the middle 90s and hitting that inflection point
where we`re about as close to record highs as we are to average
highs. Beyond tomorrow, and you can read more on this in the long
term, we venture closer to record highs.
Of course, anyone who gets even just a few seconds to experience
the sauna that is Southeast Texas in summer gets to viscerally
feel, our heat stress gets a contribution from the oppressive
humidity, as well as influence from sky cover and winds. Sometimes
that influence is for good, and sometimes for ill. Heat is
complex and nuanced, and thus so is determining its threat. So we
know temperatures are headed up, but what else can we look at to
consider the heat threat?
Most traditionally, and surely most familiar to most of us, is the
long-used heat index. This puts together temps and humidity to
estimate a dry temperature that it "feels like". For today and
tomorrow, we`re looking at peak heat index values above the
century mark, generally in the 100-103 range, but with speckles of
105+ emerging in hotspots tomorrow. Heat index though, has some
limitations - it considers a shaded location with little wind,
which isn`t always representative of the heat environment people
are in. At particular risk are people working and exerting
themselves outdoors, often more in direct sunlight.
To better look at this situation, we can use the Wet Bulb Globe
temperature. This brings in the influence of solar intensity and
wind along with temperature and humidity. It has a long history of
being used to determine danger from exertional heat stress in the
military and sports. So for the short term, WBGT is also making
its way upwards. For today, it largely shows peak values in the
moderate to high risk range (threat levels 3-4 of 5). Tomorrow,
high risk WBGT values become more widespread.
Finally, another nuance that heat index can miss is the historical
abnormality and persistence of high temperatures. The experimental
HeatRisk tool, though it only directly considers temperature, is
helpful to pinpoint how unusual the hot temperatures are, and also
is modulated by how persistent the high heat is. Since
unseasonably high temperatures are a driver of the building heat,
we`ll want to look at this as well. But, in the short term, it
does show that we are still in the building phase of this heat
stretch. Temps are above average, but not yet threatening records,
and we`ll only be 1 or 2 days into this hot stretch. As a result,
HeatRisk categories trail slightly behind WBGT, with the large
majority of the area in a moderate risk area today and only a
small amount of major risk mixing in tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Southeast Texas will be sizzling this weekend as mid/upper ridging
builds over the Lone Start State. However, the potential for some
added haze (thanks to Saharan Dust in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere) might keep temperatures a tad lower than what has been
indicated in some of our recent updates. That being said, the
model blend used in our temperature grids is still showing
widespread mid/upper 90s during the afternoon. And if the haze
doesn`t dim the sun too much, then midday Wet Bulb Globe Temps
could still approach 90, which means dangerous midday heat for
those doing any active or strenuous activity outside this weekend.
But if this heat does not please you, there is a pattern change
in the works for next week. Ridging is expected to breakdown,
with the flow pattern evolving into a NW-flow pattern. Embedded in
the flow will likely be shortave and vortmaxes, providing lift
over a very moist SE Texas atmosphere. Therefore, the forecast for
next week features rising rain/thunderstorm chances and less hot
temperatures. By Tuesday and Wednesday, much of the region could
struggle to reach 90. But the increasing rain chances will also be
accompanied by an increasing risk of heavier showers and
thunderstorms.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
While most of SETX is VFR, also have some spotty MVFR-LIFR
conditions. CLL looks to be only TAF site with potential impact,
and have a TEMPO for BKN009 CIG there for a few hours. Beyond
that, VFR conditions with lightish SE winds and isolated showers
and a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. Activity should focus
on seabreeze boundary, so highlight the three Houston terminals
with VCSH late afternoon. Tonight again should bring mix of VFR to
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Light moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail through early
/ mid next week. There will be an elevated rip current risk over
the weekend along with hotter than normal temperatures. By early
next week, the pattern turns increasingly unsettled, has rain and
thunderstorm chances increase. Though winds are expected to remain
light to moderate, there could be locally higher winds and seas in
the vicinity of thunderstorms. Seas are expected to generally be
in the 2-4 foot range. But seas over the open Gulf could approach
5-6 feet at times early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 93 77 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 77 93 77 / 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 82 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 051132
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Yesterday`s scattered storms did not go out quietly, producing
gusty winds and localized street flooding. But now we begin a
switch to heat having center stage, as near-record temperatures
are in the forecast this weekend. Some of the key things to take
from this forecast:
- Afternoon highs will be on a trend upwards starting in the low
90s today, just a bit above seasonal averages. By Sunday,
though, we`ll be looking for highs in the upper 90s and closer
to record values than is comfortable.
- Daytime heat will also be accompanied by warm nights held up by
humid onshore winds. Expect lows in the 70s area-wdie, and those
near the coast getting hung up around 80 degrees.
- And if that`s not enough, high humidity and plenty of sun will
add to the potential for heat stress. No matter how you slice
it, be it heat index values around/above 105, or seeing Wet Bulb
Globe Temperature and HeatRisk showing wide swaths of the area
at a High/Major threat level (4 of 5 for both tools), we`re
looking at heat that is outpacing what we`d expect for how early
in the summer we are. One factor that could help mitigate
concern is if we get enough haze from a Saharan dust outbreak to
hold temperatures down a few degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Afternoon storms became evening storms, as a fairly supportive
environment for convective activity yesterday definitely performed
up to expectations. However, the day`s storms have finally wrapped
up, and we`ll begin a transition to a less rainy (but not
necessarily dry, since onshore winds will keep up humidity) and
hotter stretch of days. This short term period doesn`t really get
into the big heat expected this weekend, but it`s going to do a
lot of the heavy lifting to get us there.
The big thing to look at forecast-wise in the short term is
actually probably not so much at the surface, as we`ll be looking
at the evolution of an upper ridge becoming centered right over
the Texas Gulf coast. With today still seeing the ridge building
in, I`ve got today as fairly seasonable. Highs in the lower 90s
(just a touch above average) with some slight chances of showers
and storms, starting with lighter showers near the coast and
gradually spreading inland through the afternoon. Any activity
today will be more isolated than yesterday, and should die off
more in line with sunset.
The upper ridge continues to grow in strength tomorrow, with at
least a 592 dm high at 500 mb indicating strong likelihood that
we`ll see even warmer temperatures tomorrow than today, more
pushing into the middle 90s and hitting that inflection point
where we`re about as close to record highs as we are to average
highs. Beyond tomorrow, and you can read more on this in the long
term, we venture closer to record highs.
Of course, anyone who gets even just a few seconds to experience
the sauna that is Southeast Texas in summer gets to viscerally
feel, our heat stress gets a contribution from the oppressive
humidity, as well as influence from sky cover and winds. Sometimes
that influence is for good, and sometimes for ill. Heat is
complex and nuanced, and thus so is determining its threat. So we
know temperatures are headed up, but what else can we look at to
consider the heat threat?
Most traditionally, and surely most familiar to most of us, is the
long-used heat index. This puts together temps and humidity to
estimate a dry temperature that it "feels like". For today and
tomorrow, we`re looking at peak heat index values above the
century mark, generally in the 100-103 range, but with speckles of
105+ emerging in hotspots tomorrow. Heat index though, has some
limitations - it considers a shaded location with little wind,
which isn`t always representative of the heat environment people
are in. At particular risk are people working and exerting
themselves outdoors, often more in direct sunlight.
To better look at this situation, we can use the Wet Bulb Globe
temperature. This brings in the influence of solar intensity and
wind along with temperature and humidity. It has a long history of
being used to determine danger from exertional heat stress in the
military and sports. So for the short term, WBGT is also making
its way upwards. For today, it largely shows peak values in the
moderate to high risk range (threat levels 3-4 of 5). Tomorrow,
high risk WBGT values become more widespread.
Finally, another nuance that heat index can miss is the historical
abnormality and persistence of high temperatures. The experimental
HeatRisk tool, though it only directly considers temperature, is
helpful to pinpoint how unusual the hot temperatures are, and also
is modulated by how persistent the high heat is. Since
unseasonably high temperatures are a driver of the building heat,
we`ll want to look at this as well. But, in the short term, it
does show that we are still in the building phase of this heat
stretch. Temps are above average, but not yet threatening records,
and we`ll only be 1 or 2 days into this hot stretch. As a result,
HeatRisk categories trail slightly behind WBGT, with the large
majority of the area in a moderate risk area today and only a
small amount of major risk mixing in tomorrow.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Southeast Texas will be sizzling this weekend as mid/upper ridging
builds over the Lone Start State. However, the potential for some
added haze (thanks to Saharan Dust in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere) might keep temperatures a tad lower than what has been
indicated in some of our recent updates. That being said, the
model blend used in our temperature grids is still showing
widespread mid/upper 90s during the afternoon. And if the haze
doesn`t dim the sun too much, then midday Wet Bulb Globe Temps
could still approach 90, which means dangerous midday heat for
those doing any active or strenuous activity outside this weekend.
But if this heat does not please you, there is a pattern change
in the works for next week. Ridging is expected to breakdown,
with the flow pattern evolving into a NW-flow pattern. Embedded in
the flow will likely be shortave and vortmaxes, providing lift
over a very moist SE Texas atmosphere. Therefore, the forecast for
next week features rising rain/thunderstorm chances and less hot
temperatures. By Tuesday and Wednesday, much of the region could
struggle to reach 90. But the increasing rain chances will also be
accompanied by an increasing risk of heavier showers and
thunderstorms.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
While most of SETX is VFR, also have some spotty MVFR-LIFR
conditions. CLL looks to be only TAF site with potential impact,
and have a TEMPO for BKN009 CIG there for a few hours. Beyond
that, VFR conditions with lightish SE winds and isolated showers
and a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon. Activity should focus
on seabreeze boundary, so highlight the three Houston terminals
with VCSH late afternoon. Tonight again should bring mix of VFR to
MVFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025
Light moderate onshore flow is expected to prevail through early
/ mid next week. There will be an elevated rip current risk over
the weekend along with hotter than normal temperatures. By early
next week, the pattern turns increasingly unsettled, has rain and
thunderstorm chances increase. Though winds are expected to remain
light to moderate, there could be locally higher winds and seas in
the vicinity of thunderstorms. Seas are expected to generally be
in the 2-4 foot range. But seas over the open Gulf could approach
5-6 feet at times early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 93 77 / 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 77 93 77 / 20 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 82 / 20 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
498
FXUS64 KHGX 051919
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Today has shaped up to be a very typical early summer day with
high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s,
southeasterly winds, and a splattering of isolated showers across
the area. Not anticipating any of the strong storms that we saw
yesterday afternoon, but could squeak out a rumble of thunder and
a brief downpour out of one or two isolated storms this afternoon.
Activity will wane after sunset with mild and muggy conditions
expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
inland, and low 80s along the coast.
Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to
drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures rising into the
mid-90s for most areas along and north of I-10 up through the
Piney Woods - and wouldn`t be shocked to see isolated areas within
the Houston Metro rising into the upper 90s. Heat indices will
rise into the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours. The
hot weather only gets hotter for the weekend, but read more about
that below.
The arrival of some hazy conditions is expected Friday
afternoon/evening as a layer of Saharan dust moves in from the
Gulf.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
A very strong ridge of high pressure aloft and moist southerly
flow at the surface will lead to hot and humid conditions over the
weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid to
upper 90s inland and then upper 80s to low 90s along the coast.
Temperatures are expected to rise an additional degree or two on
Sunday, and some isolated spots of high temperatures in the
triple digits possible. Heat indices both afternoons will rise to
around 102-107 degree range. The fact that is an early season and
prolonged period of heat has led to widespread High impacts using
HeatRisk, and Heat Advisories are possible over the weekend. A
slight cool down is possible on Monday as the upper level ridge
begins to break down, but temperatures will still be in the low to
mid 90s for much of the area.
There is one caveat to the heat this weekend: dust. If the Saharan
dust layer is thick enough, it could bounce enough solar radiation
away from the surface thus leading to slightly lower temperatures.
The model trends in the amount of Saharan Dust is lowering, which
means the hot temperatures are becoming more likely. But, this is
something that we`ll monitor as the dust gets closer.
Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level
shortwaves pass through the region. With multiple days of moist
southerly flow preceding these disturbances, there will be plenty
of lingering moisture around to help bring about scattered
showers and thunderstorms both days. The increased rain chances
and cloud cover will bring a return of high temperatures back into
the 80s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Expect isolated, slow moving showers to pop-up across the area
through sunset. Not expecting any strong winds and heavy rainfall
from these showers, but they are fairly stationary and could pop-
up anywhere. So, have VCSH in the TAFs across the area through
00z. An isolated, brief thunderstorm is also possible. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with SCT
to BKN clouds around 4000ft. Periods of MVFR conditions are
possible overnight tonight for the northern terminals with CIGs
around 2000ft, but these will scatter out through Friday morning.
SE winds around 6-9kt will persist through this evening, then
light/variable winds overnight with southerly winds on Friday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through
at least early next week with seas between 2-4ft. The persistent
onshore flow will lead to a high risk of strong rip currents
beginning as early as Saturday and continuing through early next
week.
Hot and humid weather is expected through the weekend with rain
chances returning Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 93 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 82 89 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 051919
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Today has shaped up to be a very typical early summer day with
high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s,
southeasterly winds, and a splattering of isolated showers across
the area. Not anticipating any of the strong storms that we saw
yesterday afternoon, but could squeak out a rumble of thunder and
a brief downpour out of one or two isolated storms this afternoon.
Activity will wane after sunset with mild and muggy conditions
expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
inland, and low 80s along the coast.
Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to
drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures rising into the
mid-90s for most areas along and north of I-10 up through the
Piney Woods - and wouldn`t be shocked to see isolated areas within
the Houston Metro rising into the upper 90s. Heat indices will
rise into the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours. The
hot weather only gets hotter for the weekend, but read more about
that below.
The arrival of some hazy conditions is expected Friday
afternoon/evening as a layer of Saharan dust moves in from the
Gulf.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
A very strong ridge of high pressure aloft and moist southerly
flow at the surface will lead to hot and humid conditions over the
weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid to
upper 90s inland and then upper 80s to low 90s along the coast.
Temperatures are expected to rise an additional degree or two on
Sunday, and some isolated spots of high temperatures in the
triple digits possible. Heat indices both afternoons will rise to
around 102-107 degree range. The fact that is an early season and
prolonged period of heat has led to widespread High impacts using
HeatRisk, and Heat Advisories are possible over the weekend. A
slight cool down is possible on Monday as the upper level ridge
begins to break down, but temperatures will still be in the low to
mid 90s for much of the area.
There is one caveat to the heat this weekend: dust. If the Saharan
dust layer is thick enough, it could bounce enough solar radiation
away from the surface thus leading to slightly lower temperatures.
The model trends in the amount of Saharan Dust is lowering, which
means the hot temperatures are becoming more likely. But, this is
something that we`ll monitor as the dust gets closer.
Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level
shortwaves pass through the region. With multiple days of moist
southerly flow preceding these disturbances, there will be plenty
of lingering moisture around to help bring about scattered
showers and thunderstorms both days. The increased rain chances
and cloud cover will bring a return of high temperatures back into
the 80s.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Expect isolated, slow moving showers to pop-up across the area
through sunset. Not expecting any strong winds and heavy rainfall
from these showers, but they are fairly stationary and could pop-
up anywhere. So, have VCSH in the TAFs across the area through
00z. An isolated, brief thunderstorm is also possible. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with SCT
to BKN clouds around 4000ft. Periods of MVFR conditions are
possible overnight tonight for the northern terminals with CIGs
around 2000ft, but these will scatter out through Friday morning.
SE winds around 6-9kt will persist through this evening, then
light/variable winds overnight with southerly winds on Friday.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through
at least early next week with seas between 2-4ft. The persistent
onshore flow will lead to a high risk of strong rip currents
beginning as early as Saturday and continuing through early next
week.
Hot and humid weather is expected through the weekend with rain
chances returning Tuesday into Wednesday next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 93 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 78 96 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 82 89 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5419
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Summer keeps getting pushed back ( except for these next dew days of suckage ) wet pattern continues into july, maybe some tropical mischief as well, im starting to buy into a more 2021 type summer, big heat stays focused over the western and northern US, while we get closer to average temperatures and more rain chances daily
- Attachments
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- IMG_3688.png (396.13 KiB) Viewed 430 times
Looking great next week if you like Florida weather in Texas.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
858
FXUS64 KHGX 061912
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
212 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Mid-level ridge will continue to be the most dominant feature for
the rest of today into Saturday. Although the ridge will limit our
rain activity for much of Southeast TX, we could still see some
isolated showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon, mainly along the coastal areas and for locations near the
Galveston Bay region as we continue to heat up. Persistent onshore
flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and lead to Heat
indices in the lower 100s this afternoon. Although these values are
not yet within the Heat Advisory criteria, these temperatures can
still lead to heat-related illnesses or injuries. Thus, continue to
practice heat safety. If outdoors, stay hydrated, take plenty of
breaks, limit the time spent outdoors, limit sun exposure, and wear
appropriate clothing. Never leave children and pets unattended in
vehicles.
For tonight, we will start off with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. As the night progresses, skies will become partly cloudy to
cloudy. We may see some streamer showers during the overnight to
early morning hours, mainly over the Gulf waters and the coastal
locations, but accumulations will be minimal. Unfortunately, we wont
have much relief from the warm and humid feels tonight, as low
temperatures only dip into the mid to upper 70s for much of the area
while dewpoints range a couple of degrees lower than the lows.
Conditions heat up a little more on Saturday, with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s for areas north of I-10, the lower to mid
90s for areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower
90s along the coast. Heat indices are expected to range between 102-
106 deg F and can once again pose a heath risk for vulnerable
populations as well as for those planning to spend long periods of
time outdoors. The one good thing about Saturday is that we can
anticipate somewhat breezy conditions as the pressure gradient
tightens and a 25-30KT low level jet develops overhead. This will
help a bit, however, make sure you are taking the necessary
precautions during your time outdoors.
Cotto
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
A robust subtropical ridge will have a strong influence over the
weather for the start of long-term period. What weather
conditions will this create, might you ask? If you guessed heat,
well...you guessed correctly. `Tis the season of walking outside
into a bowl of soup and sweating within a mere five seconds...and
this subtropical ridge will bring hotter than normal temperatures
for Sunday (Advisories are looking more likely for this day).
Inland temperatures for both Sunday and Monday will be in the 90s
to near 100F for portions of the Metro. Along the coast, highs
will be in the upper 80s.
The ridge will begin breaking down on Monday, which may bring
daytime temperatures down a degree or two compared to Sunday`s
highs. As the ridge breaks down, precipitation chances will
increase, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday afternoon appears to be more favorable for development with
peak heating. Highest PoPs lie east of the I-45 corridor.
The ridge will continue breaking down through the week with a
series of vort maxes (pockets of more enhanced upward movement of
air) and shortwaves pass through Southeast Texas. This will create
an unsettled weather pattern through the end of the long-term. The
positive side? Locations that receive rain should experience less
impacts from heat. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies should help
keep temperatures at bay as well.
As is the case with summertime storms in Southeast Texas, heavy
downpours and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday. This is later in the period, so
confidence on this occurrence is low, but as mentioned by the
previous forecaster, the signal is there.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
A few spotty streamer showers have popped up across the coast west
of Galveston Bay. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail region-
wide through the day today, with winds out of the S to SSE around
the 10 kt range. Winds become light and variable tonight and
overnight before picking back up out of the S around 10-12 kts by
mid to late Saturday morning. Another VFR day is on tap for
Saturday with mostly clear skies. Some Saharan dust moving in late
tonight may cause conditions to be a bit hazy Saturday, but the
dust should be high enough off the ground that visibility will not
be affected.
McNeel
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Light to moderate onshore flow and generally low seas are
expected through the middle of next week. Seas could be around 5
feet in the offshore Gulf waters at times. Beach conditions over
the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with
hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern becomes more
unsettled next week, with an increasing probability of rain and
thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher
winds and seas are possible, particularly Tuesday through the end
of next week.
Adams/Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 78 / 20 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Adams/Self
FXUS64 KHGX 061912
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
212 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Mid-level ridge will continue to be the most dominant feature for
the rest of today into Saturday. Although the ridge will limit our
rain activity for much of Southeast TX, we could still see some
isolated showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon, mainly along the coastal areas and for locations near the
Galveston Bay region as we continue to heat up. Persistent onshore
flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and lead to Heat
indices in the lower 100s this afternoon. Although these values are
not yet within the Heat Advisory criteria, these temperatures can
still lead to heat-related illnesses or injuries. Thus, continue to
practice heat safety. If outdoors, stay hydrated, take plenty of
breaks, limit the time spent outdoors, limit sun exposure, and wear
appropriate clothing. Never leave children and pets unattended in
vehicles.
For tonight, we will start off with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. As the night progresses, skies will become partly cloudy to
cloudy. We may see some streamer showers during the overnight to
early morning hours, mainly over the Gulf waters and the coastal
locations, but accumulations will be minimal. Unfortunately, we wont
have much relief from the warm and humid feels tonight, as low
temperatures only dip into the mid to upper 70s for much of the area
while dewpoints range a couple of degrees lower than the lows.
Conditions heat up a little more on Saturday, with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 90s for areas north of I-10, the lower to mid
90s for areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower
90s along the coast. Heat indices are expected to range between 102-
106 deg F and can once again pose a heath risk for vulnerable
populations as well as for those planning to spend long periods of
time outdoors. The one good thing about Saturday is that we can
anticipate somewhat breezy conditions as the pressure gradient
tightens and a 25-30KT low level jet develops overhead. This will
help a bit, however, make sure you are taking the necessary
precautions during your time outdoors.
Cotto
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
A robust subtropical ridge will have a strong influence over the
weather for the start of long-term period. What weather
conditions will this create, might you ask? If you guessed heat,
well...you guessed correctly. `Tis the season of walking outside
into a bowl of soup and sweating within a mere five seconds...and
this subtropical ridge will bring hotter than normal temperatures
for Sunday (Advisories are looking more likely for this day).
Inland temperatures for both Sunday and Monday will be in the 90s
to near 100F for portions of the Metro. Along the coast, highs
will be in the upper 80s.
The ridge will begin breaking down on Monday, which may bring
daytime temperatures down a degree or two compared to Sunday`s
highs. As the ridge breaks down, precipitation chances will
increase, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday afternoon appears to be more favorable for development with
peak heating. Highest PoPs lie east of the I-45 corridor.
The ridge will continue breaking down through the week with a
series of vort maxes (pockets of more enhanced upward movement of
air) and shortwaves pass through Southeast Texas. This will create
an unsettled weather pattern through the end of the long-term. The
positive side? Locations that receive rain should experience less
impacts from heat. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies should help
keep temperatures at bay as well.
As is the case with summertime storms in Southeast Texas, heavy
downpours and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday. This is later in the period, so
confidence on this occurrence is low, but as mentioned by the
previous forecaster, the signal is there.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
A few spotty streamer showers have popped up across the coast west
of Galveston Bay. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail region-
wide through the day today, with winds out of the S to SSE around
the 10 kt range. Winds become light and variable tonight and
overnight before picking back up out of the S around 10-12 kts by
mid to late Saturday morning. Another VFR day is on tap for
Saturday with mostly clear skies. Some Saharan dust moving in late
tonight may cause conditions to be a bit hazy Saturday, but the
dust should be high enough off the ground that visibility will not
be affected.
McNeel
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025
Light to moderate onshore flow and generally low seas are
expected through the middle of next week. Seas could be around 5
feet in the offshore Gulf waters at times. Beach conditions over
the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current risk along with
hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern becomes more
unsettled next week, with an increasing probability of rain and
thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher
winds and seas are possible, particularly Tuesday through the end
of next week.
Adams/Self
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 93 78 95 78 / 20 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 82 89 82 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto /24/
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Adams/Self
Summer over the weekend and wetter/cooler next week.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Today's Outlook
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The severe weather train continues here. There's been so many watches and warnings since April (44 severe thunderstorm warnings so far this year in the county). Had hurricane force winds a couple of days ago from a supercell. And there may be a Derecho tomorrow up here. SPC mentions winds could gust to 100 mph with the MCS tomorrow.
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Wow! They issued a Moderate Risk here tomorrow! 
A Derecho is looking likely with 80-100 mph winds possible per SPC. Time to get the batteries charged up. LOL
A Derecho is looking likely with 80-100 mph winds possible per SPC. Time to get the batteries charged up. LOL- Attachments
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Models and the WPC have significantly cut back on rainfall totals for this coming week. I would expect to start seeing rainfall chances come down.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5419
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Lets relax yall, most folks in se texas are gonna get rainfall, in my opinion , im expecting widespread 1-3 inches in se texas with 4-6 inches possible in some places, lets wait until the short range models are in range of any disturbances next week,