July 2025

[srainhoutx]

It looks like this will rival the 1987 flood event near Hunt and Kerrville. So sad particularly on a Holiday Weekend.

[Cpv17]

If it’s a warm core low, I’d expect it to blow up again overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. San Antonio area could be next in line.

[tireman4]

Kerr County Sherriff's Office

[tireman4]

Update

[869MB]

Alluding to what Jasin stated

Those poor people. None of this was forecasted, correct?

It just hit me now that the CMC had a few runs late last week depicting a warm core cut off low pressure swirling over South Central TX for several days before ultimately dissipating. I thought those CMC’s model runs were interesting but I disregarded them because no other long range global model was depicting this scenario. The only aspect of this low pressure it forecasted incorrectly was maybe the actual timing of the heaviest rains.

Here is a snapshot of the Friday, June 27th 12Z CMC run forecasting heavy rains over SC TX for Monday, July 7th…

IMG_0172.png

(384.39 KiB) Downloaded 1268 times

[tireman4]

Update

[Pas_Bon]

This is surreal. There will be multiple, multiple fatalities from those completely caught off guard camping for the long weekend. My heart is shattered.
The meteorology profession and weather community will be catching a ton of heat the next weeks. Buckle down.

[Cromagnum]

Gonna be bad. Lots of RV parks and campgrounds completely wiped out, let alone homes near some of the rivers. Seems like big droughts always eventually get busted by ridiculous floods.

[tireman4]

Update

[tireman4]

26 feet in 45 minutes

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt mind a heat ridge sittiny over the state for the next 1-2 weeks, central texas definitely needs an extended periof of dry weather , hope we can get that soon

[tireman4]

Update

[tireman4]

Update

[DoctorMu]

Is that the remnants of Barry possibly? If so that is why the system looks warm core this morning.

I was thinking the same thing. Looks like Barry got Harvey’d over central TX. They needed rain, but obviously not this much. Heartbreaking.

Unexpected, as Jason was saying. But it's a warm core low...so the notion of blowing up again tonight is possible. Kerrville is a great town. It's tragic to hear people getting rescued on rooftops.

[DoctorMu]

That low is heading toward Navasota and College Station. It could fill in tonight.

[tireman4]

That low is heading toward Navasota and College Station. It could fill in tonight.

We could have interesting night.

[Rip76]

Oof.

[Ptarmigan]

‘A horrifying scene’: How flooding affected Hill Country residents’ homes, businesses and neighbors
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2025/07 ... neighbors/

Harrowing.

[Ptarmigan]

Core rains tend to happen at night.

[Ptarmigan]

Is that the remnants of Barry possibly? If so that is why the system looks warm core this morning.

It is remnant of Tropical Storm Barry and moisture from Hurricane Flossie.