June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

TXZ213-214-235>238-191700-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EDNA...BAY CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
924 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS MORNINGS MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS AND OR
WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN COME ONSHORE AS WEAK TORNADOES.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THAT REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

[srainhoutx]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

GMZ335-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-191700-
GALVESTON BAY-LIBERTY-HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-
MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...
MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...
BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
950 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 1200 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF. RAINFALL RATES UP
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ALSO
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS AND OR WATERSPOUTS
IN THIS UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS. WATERSPOUTS CAN COME ONSHORE
AS WEAK TORNADOES.

[Rip76]

It's like a cruel joke.

Nothing on I-45

[srainhoutx]

Nice quick torrential tropical shower passing my areas in NW Harris County.

[jgreak]

Radar looks to really be ramping up. I have missed out on all the rain the past couple weeks here in Kingwood, hoping it doesn't dodge us again today!

[weatherguy425]

GFS doesn't isn't that crazy with the ridge, shows tropical wave undercutting the ridge by hour 264.



Edit to add the the GFS pulls the entire ridge back into the four corners in the longer range.

[jasons2k]

GFS doesn't isn't that crazy with the ridge, shows tropical wave undercutting the ridge by hour 264.
Edit to add the the GFS pulls the entire ridge back into the four corners in the longer range.

Timing will be everything on the long-range. We're already running a few days behind from when this was supposed to orginally form, so I just won't trust any modelling until we have something coalesce down there (if it ever happens).

[weatherguy425]

Definitely true. Will need to watch the strength as well as placement of this ridge closely, as even the slightest weakness can funnel in moisture, as well as cool heights to significantly cool allowing for a locally wet pattern to develop.

[srainhoutx]

The processes are already to become a bit more clear as to how things will develop over the next several days. The GFS ensembles as well as the Euro agree on a transfer, if you will of energy that is rather complex. At the surface, a 1009mb surface low is now moving onshore in Belize heading in a general NW fashion. In the upper levels, a TUTT low is moving WNW just S of Louisiana traveling along the trough axis that is giving us tropical showers/storms today into tomorrow. Further S near Monterrey, a left over mid/upper level vort that was the MCS that dropped SE to near Austin late Sunday has rotated around an upper ridge and is moving offshore into the Gulf near Tampico. Along the West Coast of Mexico, an area of disturbed weather is nearing the Isthmus of Tehuantepec interacting with the low crossing the Yucatan. While the models do agree that a bit of drying is in order for Thursday into Sunday, most reliable guidance suggest the heat ridge may be a tad weaker than earlier modeled. A weak 'cool front' has also slowed down its S progression across the Tennessee Valley keeping the board low in the Western Gulf somewhat stationary as the streering current collapse. What does it mean? It is still a very difficult and complex pattern and a lot depends on just how deep the Western Gulf low becomes over the next 72 hours. Whether anything of real interest develops fully remains to be seen. I will say that regardless of development, it is clear we are not in a pattern of last year where endless days of drought and excessive heat were the theme for months on end.

The attachment 06192012 18Z wv.jpg is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

Folks in Western Ft Bend, Harris, Montgomery & Waller Counties heads up. Torrential tropical rains are dropping near 1 inch per hour rates. Additional storm are develop further S in Ft Bend County heading N. Toiugh rush hour ahead out there with blinding heavy rainfall.

[weatherguy425]

CG lightning is pretty intense with these cells as well. Already hearing loud thunder here in kingwood...from the cell which is still near downtown.

[mckinne63]

Wow! I just made it home before the skies here in Stafford opened up. Wind was blowing so hard that it blew one of our cast iron aluminum chairs over.

[srainhoutx]

Nearing an inch and 3/4 in the old rain bucket today. Not too shabby from 3 waves of tropical downpours...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

TXZ178-199-213-192215-
SAN JANCINTO TX-HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
425 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN JANCINTO...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHENANDOAH...OR 2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE WOODLANDS...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SHENANDOAH...OAK RIDGE NORTH AND THE WOODLANDS AROUND 430 PM CDT.
CONROE AROUND 440 PM CDT.
CUT AND SHOOT AROUND 445 PM CDT.
PANORAMA VILLAGE AROUND 450 PM CDT.
WILLIS AROUND 455 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CHATEAU WOODS AND
WOODLOCH.

[niner21]

oh God, 10 year drought, oh lord.... Blah blah blah....

Humans are so egocentric.

[jasons2k]

From NWS HGX:

RAIN CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE TO NIL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. LATE WEEK UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EXPANDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 85H
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH 10-5H
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING BY ANOTHER 30 M OR SO...TRANSLATES TO
HOT AND DRY GOING THROUGH THIS FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER. NO MAJOR
CHANGE ON THE GFS/ECMWF 19/12Z RUNS CONCERNING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CIRCULATION...STILL LARGE AND BROAD AND POSES NO THREAT TO THE TEXAS
COASTLINE THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.

[Andrew]

From NWS HGX:

RAIN CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINE TO NIL FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. LATE WEEK UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EXPANDING
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 85H
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH 10-5H
THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING BY ANOTHER 30 M OR SO...TRANSLATES TO
HOT AND DRY GOING THROUGH THIS FIRST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER. NO MAJOR
CHANGE ON THE GFS/ECMWF 19/12Z RUNS CONCERNING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
CIRCULATION...STILL LARGE AND BROAD AND POSES NO THREAT TO THE TEXAS
COASTLINE THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD.

A little to much bold language in my opinion but I guess we will see.

[Rip76]

From my untrained eye, I think "Nil" is the perfect description.

[srainhoutx]

Scattered showers/storms are on tap for one more day across the areas before some drier air to our E just S of Louisiana shifts W and PW's drop to the 1.5 range.

Down in the Bay of Campeche, scattered showers/storms have developed overnight as a weak surface low has formed. It appears that the moisture associated with that feature will remain well to our S as the low meanders for several days and an elongated trough extends eastward toward the Florida West Coast. Hot and dry conditions look to return over the weekend as a strong heat ridge expands E from the Desert SW on toward the EC. Gulf moisture may return next week as a return flow off the Gulf increases as that ridge breaks down and heads E. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

One more day of rainfall potential before ridging begins to build over the region and hotter and drier weather returns.



Tropical wave axis is now well inland over SW TX along with a mid/upper level low over NE MX south of the southern TX border. Best moisture is gradually shifting westward with local radar showing much less activity this morning over the Gulf waters compared to yesterday at this time. Highest moisture axis currently extends along the lower into the middle TX coast where greater radar coverage is in progress. Best rain chances today will be along and west of I-45 and maybe even further west as drier air enters the area from the east during the day. Radar still shows a few showers off the SW LA coast indicating enough moisture lingers just to our east and may allow a few additional showers/storms over our eastern counties. Best coverage will be across our western counties into SC and S TX.



Upper level ridging will build out of MX over the next 24-48 hours into W TX ending rain chances and increasing temperatures as cloud cover decreases. Still feel there may be an isolated storm on the seabreeze on Thursday with the best chances from Matagorda Bay south and westward. Area will be on the southern side of the ridge into the weekend and early next week with a dry and hot forecast currently the most logical course.



Tropics:

Area of board low pressure development still appears at least possible in the Gulf of Mexico at some point, but model solutions are surprisingly varying with each run and from model to model on where any formation will happen and in what direction it may move. A couple areas of interest have shown up this morning. The first in the NW Caribbean Sea where deep convection has persisted overnight, although I have not been able to close off any low level circulation…mainly looks to be ESE or SE winds through most of the region. The second area I was watching yesterday afternoon over SE MX west of the country of Guatemala where visible images showed what appeared to be a well defined surface circulation. Overnight it appears this feature moved NNE toward the southern Yucatan with deep convection developing. I cannot find anything in the surface observations suggesting there is in fact a surface low in this region, but it sure did look likely on the visible images yesterday…awaiting the first few visible frames today to see what they show. Anyhow, any development from this region will be slow due to only marginally favorable upper air conditions and interactions with the land areas of central America. For now will keep the moisture contained to the central Gulf or southward, but cannot deny the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means showing the low pressure eventually making its way into the western Gulf at some point early next week. Models may finally get some kind of grasp on the situation once a defined circulation develops.



Yesterday afternoon the NHC upgraded an area of low pressure over the far north Atlantic to Tropical Storm Chris. Only twice before as the third tropical cyclone of the year formed before June 19…1887 and 1959. Chris evolved from a cold core frontal low pressure system and has gradually acquired warm core tropical features over the past 48 hours. Yesterday afternoon the system developed a compact circulation with deep convection and was declared a tropical cyclone. The system will remain over the open Atlantic and not affect any landmasses.