We may need to monitor the WSW progression of a meso low/vortex currently over Mississippi and the mid/upper low/trough in the Gulf heading generally W. Although we have dried out a bit, daytime heating and some destabilization is possible later this evening as that system moves across Southern Louisiana and enters SE Texas. We will see.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2013
....MS DELTA REGION AND CENTRAL-WRN GULF COAST...
INITIALLY NON-SVR MULTICELLULAR TSTM CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BEGIN TO POSE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS...WITH ACCOMPANYING DAMAGE POSSIBILITIES...AS
IT MOVES WSWWD INTO DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 FOR NEAR-TERM
DETAILS. IN ADDITION TO THIS ACTIVITY...TSTMS WITH SPORADIC
STG-DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG ITS
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AND OTHER AREA OUTFLOW/SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER GULF MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER LOFT AND/OR
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WWD TO SWWD/FORWARD-PROPORTIONAL
ACTIVITY OVER LA AND PERHAPS SE TX.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx wrote:We may need to monitor the WSW progression of a meso low/vortex currently over Mississippi and the mid/upper low/trough in the Gulf heading generally W. Although we have dried out a bit, daytime heating and some destabilization is possible later this evening as that system moves across Southern Louisiana and enters SE Texas. We will see.
Being on the west side of the meso low/vortex is why we are dry right now. The dry air has to go somewhere. It is like the west of a hurricane, dry, while east side is wet.
Betting we'll see more storm coverage tomorrow and over the weekend as the leftover boundaries and moisture increase overnight. Need all the rain we can get before next week's heat returns in earnest. Storms right now to our east are weakening and doubt they will make it much farther tonight.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Storm chances increase a little today and Saturday as a disturbance and upper level low drifts W into SE TX. Isolated strong microbursts will be possible on Saturday.
kayci wrote:Ok yall, I am no expert.. far from it. Is it me or do I see a tiny little circulation with that "blob" in the GOM?
Hey kayci. There is a trough axis from just SW of Panama City, FL to Tampico, MX across the Gulf. Most of the circulation is at the mid/upper levels. Surface Pressures across the Eastern half of the Gulf is rather high, but PW's or precipitable water values are running in the 2+ inch range meaning a tropical air mass is lurking. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has our part of the world in a 'text' area as the disturbance moves generally W. The main concern will be some heavy tropical rains with any storms that develop later today.
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Nice, so it goes something like 'Complex of storms, imbedded in a pocket of very moist air, headed towards Houston during peak heating, should mean watch out for flooding. Instead it defies all logic and weakens anyway.'
NHC has a 10% chance of developement on our "blob" in the Gulf:
GIS data: .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Skies are clouding up here in Stafford, getting quite breezy too. I have heard some thunder,but it's been in the distance. Keeping my fingers crossed that my lawn gets some water. Interesting to see clouds on one side of the house and semi clear skies on the other.
that wedge of dry air has moved west of us and the deeper moisture is headed right towards us.
Interesting to see clouds on one side of the house and semi clear skies on the other.
