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Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:14 pm
by unome
srainhoutx wrote:Nice burst of convection near the center suggests 91L may well be on its way to becoming TS Bill.
look at that thing !

Loop: http://tinyurl.com/NASA-Custom-Sat-WV5

edit to add: http://tinyurl.com/30-image-high-quality-loop

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:15 pm
by tireman4
Wxman 57 is still delayed in Chicago.

We await his arrival just in time...:D

I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:16 pm
by Ounce
If the area around Kerrville is still able to produce rain, would this area also provide the west side of the soon-to-be TS Bill with some energy after landfall?

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:16 pm
by tireman4
Any guesses as to what the first write up MPH will be? 50 MPH? 45 MPH? Very interesting as it continues to get its act together. Humm......

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:20 pm
by JamieP
50+ My pure gut feeling (no scientific data supporting this, no hype, just my personal opinion)....I feel future Bill may have a few surprises in store for us.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:24 pm
by tireman4
Just a note to all the newbies and veterans on here. The posts will start to come in fast and furious as this situation changes, stays the same or both. Remember, with respect to the mets who generously make time to be on here ( Andrew, Wxman 57, Srain, Brooks, David, Jeff and Larry), be patient with them. They will answer your questions as succinct and with much information as possible. They do not have to be here. They are here to help. Please do not get frustrated with them. Be patient and know they will give you the latest information to guide you through this.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:26 pm
by Baseballdude2915
Center starting to take shape, but not clear enough to nail down a track. Extrapolation looks like Matagorda all the way.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:27 pm
by GBinGrimes
Amen tireman4. Amen.

Thank you so very much to the pros that keep us so very well informed.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:27 pm
by ticka1
And I am going to go ahead and say it - A BIG THANK YOU TO KHOU and all the PROFESSIONALS that Tireman4 listed! And the ADMIN and MODERATORS here - ya'll make this a great forum to get information from - THANK YOU AGAIN.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:28 pm
by kellybell4770
tireman4 wrote:Just a note to all the newbies and veterans on here. The posts will start to come in fast and furious as this situation changes, stays the same or both. Remember, with respect to the mets who generously make time to be on here ( Andrew, Wxman 57, Srain, Brooks, David, Jeff and Larry), be patient with them. They will answer your questions as succinct and with much information as possible. They do not have to be here. They are here to help. Please do not get frustrated with them. Be patient and know they will give you the latest information to guide you through this.


thank you so very much for your help and time - it is most appreciated :)

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:30 pm
by cperk
ticka1 wrote:And I am going to go ahead and say it - A BIG THANK YOU TO KHOU and all the PROFESSIONALS that Tireman4 listed! And the ADMIN and MODERATORS here - ya'll make this a great forum to get information from - THANK YOU AGAIN.
Ditto!

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:31 pm
by JamieP
Yes, thank you to all the pros! This is the first place I visit for the latest information. As always, keep up the great work.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:38 pm
by texasrattler
Nice blow-up of convection on the latest satellite. Does the clearing towards the center indicate a center of circulation is forming or is it just an anomaly?

Image

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:46 pm
by srainhoutx
Typically when we see a convective 'hot tower' near the center, the low level circulation contracts or support strengthening. Also we may be witnessing a cyclone becoming vertically stacked meaning the center is consolidating thus getting stronger.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:53 pm
by GBinGrimes
I work in the IT field and typically new and "instantaneously at your fingers" technology means all sorts of trouble for the systems and people that I manage. But, this instant information weather stuff is fascinating and so very helpful.

The storm that is soon to be named Bill could get very interesting very quickly.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:56 pm
by jasons2k
The biggest issue I have is the first advisory will come so late in the day, there is very little time for businesses to react and communicate tomorrow's plans to employees.

We were supposed to have a team outing to see the Astros play tomorrow. They are waiting on 'news' to make any decisions. In other words, a mad scramble to adjust plans at the last minute.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:58 pm
by tireman4
Agreed Jason. That is what Steve alluded too about the discussions and advisories.....Jeff was right, it should have been called at the 2, but..it is what it is...

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:06 pm
by brooksgarner
tireman4 wrote:Agreed Jason. That is what Steve alluded too about the discussions and advisories.....Jeff was right, it should have been called at the 2, but..it is what it is...
I also personally agree. If they "know" they'll declare it a T.S., they should. That'll allow employers to cancel work tomorrow, keeping those employees off the road.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:09 pm
by Portastorm
NHC just tweeted no advisories at 4 p.m. our time. Next aircraft in system at 8 p.m.

Re: JUNE 2015 -Heavy Rainfall/INVEST 91L & Watching The Gulf

Posted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:10 pm
by tireman4
And Brooks, the way it is ramping up, it will be a low level Tropical Storm ( or was/is) by the 2, that will make Jeff's job easier to put out forecasts. Now this just makes it a headache...