Tracking the Tropics:

[tireman4]

From HGX AFD:

Going forward, the Gulf low should continue drifting westward, so
even if its circulation does continue to strengthen, we should
still see onshore flow, and an increase in moisture into the
weekend. Precipitable water looks to increase from around 1.75
inches to 2 inches or more, and so PoPs are increased along with
that. One concern might be that if this low were to actually
become a tropical cyclone, there could be enough outflow that we
could be trapped under a subsident ring, suppressing convection
despite the increased moisture. But since that appears to be a
very low probability outcome, the PoP grids do not reflect that
scenario. The increased potential for rain and cloudiness should
be sufficient to knock down high temps a few degrees, but don`t
look for much more than that - the scenario still appears to be
more an enhancement of the diurnal trend which would still allow
for plenty of heating.
Tropical...
The low pressure area in the Gulf has seen a bump up in its
development potential to 20 percent today, which is warranted
given its convective performance this morning, and its developing
circulation. It has not been able to advance or really even
sustain its convective appearance this afternoon, though for an
undeveloped system, it`s not really to be expected at this stage
of development. It is riding along a pretty sharp gradient in
shear, and its future track may provide the limiting factor on its
potential. Over SE Texas, shear is quite high, and any drift north
of west would be likely to keep this area undeveloped. Further
slow development may be possible on a due west track in moderate
to marginally favorable shear, while better development may be
possible if it drifts a bit south of west where shear is a little
more relaxed. Of course, with the gradient oriented in this
manner, any impacts for our area would likely to be more or less
the same regardless of what happens.

[srainhoutx]

Will need to monitor the area about 150 miles S of Lake Charles the next several hours to see if convection can maintain as well as continue to consolidate. It appears shear is decreasing offshore and some signs of banding are evident via zoomed visible satellite imagery. Pressures are beginning to fall.. gradually. Let's see if the convective activity continues into the overnight hours.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Area of low pressure over the NW Gulf of Mexico has become slightly better organized today.

Visible satellite images indicate that the low pressure area about 150-200 miles SE of Galveston had become slightly better organized with a more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near the center of the low pressure. A review of buoy and oil platform data indicate a very weak wind field over the NW Gulf with winds generally running less than 20kts and many sites less than 10kts. While a surface low can be clearly noted in the wind observations…it is fairly weak and while surface pressures are falling some…they still remain fairly high. This feature is along a fairly tight gradient of stronger upper level winds to the north and weaker upper level winds to the south or in other words conditions are more favorable for development if the system tracked just south of due west and unfavorable if is tracks north of due west. Currently the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 20% chance of development over the next 24-36 hours before it moves inland over TX.

At this time the surface low is drifting westward and will approach the middle/lower TX coast late Friday into Friday night. NE winds along the upper TX coast will gradually veer to the E and SE as the low passes just to the south and help to pump deep tropical moisture into the area associated with the system. This will start to result in an increase of showers and thunderstorms…in some bands…on Friday with the best chances Saturday and Sunday. If the system becomes better organized than currently expected this would likely keep more of the rainfall offshore and closer to any better defined center of circulation. While heavy rainfall will be likely given the incoming air mass…storm motions should be fast enough to keep any flooding concerns to the street variety.

Coastal winds continue to run 15-20kts along the upper TX coast due to lowering NW Gulf surface pressures and high pressure to the NNE. This continues to result in a favorable tidal pile up wind for this area and tides are running around 1.0-1.5 ft above predicted levels in Galveston Bay at Eagle Point and Morgan’s Point and around 1-2 feet above predicted levels on the Gulf facing beaches. Tides will continue to run above normal into Friday and likely Saturday although the wind veering more to the SE with time should help to stabilize the tidal rises to about where they are now. Would not expect any problems with these levels except for a few low lying locations near the coast that normal inundate with higher than normal tides.

[Rip76]

I know, I know..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html


But that last frame has a look about it.

Not much convection though.

[SKIDOG45]

when I see those cloud tops rising. shear is going away. Alicia part duex

[Rip76]

Also they've removed the "L" now from the link above.

[SKIDOG45]

I'm seeing cloud tops rising. shear is going away. Alicia part duex

[Skyguy]

Alicia part II? Are you sure?

[ticka1]

I remember we had a tropical storm about 12 years ago and I had to work. Not saying tis will be TS or even develop but just be weather aware. Might be a rainy weekend to stay in and watch sports and movies or read a good book.

[Rip76]

Agreed.
Just some nice winds and a few downpours would be awesome.

[worrybug]

Agreed.
Just some nice winds and a few downpours would be awesome.

But SKIDOG45 » says this is "Alicia part deux! Rip76, if there's anything to what he says, those wind's ain't gonna be nice. And there'll be more than a just a few downpours, my friend. Alicia was a surprise attack, if you remember.

[TexasBreeze]

The disturbance isn't the best looking or in the best of conditions to pull an Alicia redux. Just scattered to numerous showers/storms for the coastal areas.

[Skyguy]

The disturbance isn't the best looking or in the best of conditions to pull an Alicia redux. Just scattered to numerous showers/storms for the coastal areas.

Where will this disturbance make landfall, assuming it holds course? TexasPirate11 says it's eyeing SE Texas. Is that the general direction it's moving? Ours?

[srainhoutx]

No deep convective organization typically means little chance of development. Time is quickly running out for this pesky tropical wave.

[Skyguy]

No deep convective organization typically means little chance of development. Time is quickly running out for this pesky tropical wave.

As I asked before, where will landfall occur?

[Rip76]

How do people log in 2 computers at the same time?

Oh.
"Landfall?" This should just generally move westward, and bring some showers to the coastal areas.

[worrybug]

How do people log in 2 computers at the same time?

Oh.
"Landfall?" This should just generally move westward, and bring some showers to the coastal areas.

Test run on the generator in east central Houston. Preparing for the worse. Still have nightmares of refugees from Katrina.

[TexasBreeze]

How do people log in 2 computers at the same time?

Oh.
"Landfall?" This should just generally move westward, and bring some showers to the coastal areas.

It is quite annoying making posts in the evenings and nights now imo....

[worrybug]

How do people log in 2 computers at the same time?

Oh.
"Landfall?" This should just generally move westward, and bring some showers to the coastal areas.

It is quite annoying making posts in the evenings and nights now imo....

TexasBreeze, we all should be on lookout for heavy rain potential this weekend even if that GOM system doesn't develop. It's already starting to fire good convection...you can see some of rain on the Houston radar. It's sitting over very warm water so it does have potential if it sits and drifts very slowly west or wnw. I know in the Houston area we have very good rain chances all weekend. We gotta keep our eyes on it and want to see what it does tonight.

[ticka1]

yawn...going to sleep 92L is an invest and will move inland somewhere along the texas coast. It will bring mostly rain - some folks could see nothing. Tomorrow is friday and then the weekend. Everyone have a great night.