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EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.

storms always seem to swing a bit north of what they say.
So even if its CC or Matagorda bay we will still see rain

mcheer23 wrote:EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.

That’s surprising.

Cpv17 wrote:

mcheer23 wrote:EURO ensembles are clustered between brownsville and corpus. Actually shifted south a little.

That’s surprising.

Once we have an actually center to track things will be more clear.

if u look at the ensembles alot of them are't by the center where the NHC has it or am i wrong.

still waiting on the days 1-5 & 1-7 static graphic to update, but looks like the rest of the individual are updated

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf

also the loop graphics are updated https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

edit to add: the 7-day graphic used in the just-ended FEMA/President's televised briefing is the one issued at 8:53Z today, so if you have peeps in the areas affected by any of the tropical systems that may not know where to look, give them a link to get updated graphics

days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

unome wrote:days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

What are the odds of this thing making landfall and stalling like Allison or Harvey? Doesnt seem like it would be moving very much.

Cpv17 wrote:

unome wrote:days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

i hope you're being sarcastic.

it will keep changing.

Texaspirate11 wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

unome wrote:days 1-7 updated - important to always check the time issued on graphics

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

i hope you're being sarcastic.

All that shows is about 2-4” of rain south of 10 and 1-2” north of there. That’s nothing to worry about for our area. If that verifies then we’ll be fine.

Texas city has already clocked 9 inches and galveston is flooding in some parts
Dayum we dont need ANY of this.....but it will just exacerbate the soggy situation

Texaspirate11 wrote:Texas city has already clocked 9 inches and galveston is flooding in some parts
Dayum we dont need ANY of this.....but it will just exacerbate the soggy situation

Yeah you guys down there have been getting pounded, but most of SETX hasn’t seen that much. It’s been along the coast and the east side of Houston and towards Beaumont and Louisiana that have been getting most of the rain.

Cpv17 wrote:

unome wrote:

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

Be very careful about not being too concerned. HGX just issued a Youtube briefing and specifically stated that there are far too many unknowns to dismiss anything from the disturbance just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, including it possibly becoming a Hurricane. Jeff is preaching to get your Hurricane Kits in order quickly and get your supplies replenished in every Update he issues. No one is alarmed at this time, but ANYTIME we have a tropical trouble maker in our backyard, it shouldn't be taken lightly or dismissed easily.

srainhoutx wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

unome wrote:

Judging by that, I wouldn’t be too concerned about anything. Doesn’t look like much will come from this.

Be very careful about not being too concerned. HGX just issued a Youtube briefing and specifically stated that there are far too many unknowns to dismiss anything from the disturbance just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, including it possibly becoming a Hurricane. Jeff is preaching to get your Hurricane Kits in order quickly and get your supplies replenished in every Update he issues. No one is alarmed at this time, but ANYTIME we have a tropical trouble maker in our backyard, it shouldn't be taken lightly or dismissed easily.

Yeah, I have to like this post 100 times. Steve knows what he is talking about. I would not be dismissive of Jeff or Steve in weather situations.

to keep things confusing... they appear to be using different colors for the various qpf amounts for the qpc graphic on NHC's website - not sure why they do that ?

NHC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics ... QPF_sm.gif

WPC
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

tireman4 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Be very careful about not being too concerned. HGX just issued a Youtube briefing and specifically stated that there are far too many unknowns to dismiss anything from the disturbance just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, including it possibly becoming a Hurricane. Jeff is preaching to get your Hurricane Kits in order quickly and get your supplies replenished in every Update he issues. No one is alarmed at this time, but ANYTIME we have a tropical trouble maker in our backyard, it shouldn't be taken lightly or dismissed easily.

Yeah, I have to like this post 100 times. Steve knows what he is talking about. I would not be dismissive of Jeff or Steve in weather situations.

well said, both

Unrelated, but the HPC map brought out the infamous ' pink ' color for Florence in the Carolinas. It is going to be a rough one over there!

Even if 95L goes to south TX, many times se TX sees northern feeder bands set up shop and they create funnels and training storms. Gotta be prepared for this system!

I noticed the infamous "pink" color was back on qpf. Isn't that the new color they had to create for Harvey because Harvey was "off the charts" on rainfall?