September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[don]

The Euro is also showing some impressive rainfall totals across southeast Texas as the tropical storm stalls and washes itself out over the area.

[sambucol]

Could this be an Allison event? Or worse?

[Stormlover2020]

This could be bad!!! Meso models could be 2-3 times this

[Stratton20]

12z Euro! I know its early but this is a pretty big red flag in my book

[don]

Could this be an Allison event? Or worse?

I wouldn't be concerned at this point,we'll just have to watch the models over the next few days to see if its a trend or not.

[davidiowx]

Sheesh that Euro rainfall map brings me bad memories of what the Euro was throwing out consistently for several days up to and through Harvey's landfall... Can't imagine that will happen here, but no thanks.

[sambucol]

Sheesh that Euro rainfall map brings me bad memories of what the Euro was throwing out consistently for several days up to and through Harvey's landfall... Can't imagine that will happen here, but no thanks.

Same here.

[weatherguy425]

12Z EPS is also a little more “excited” with tropical development.

[don]

That's a pretty good increase in support from the 0z and 6z ensembles.

[Cpv17]

The WPC is far from buying into the Euro. They’re very much siding with the GFS right now.

[Stratton20]

My early rainfall predictions, 4-6 inches widspread with 10-15+ inches in some spots

[weatherguy425]

The WPC is far from buying into the Euro. They’re very much siding with the GFS right now.

They are a forecast agency that uses blends of models, climo, synoptics, etc. There are never large swings and these forecast rain accumulations are often general and won’t visually show isolated, more extreme, totals.

Of course, ECMWF may not verify. But, there really isn’t any siding with model runs here.

[Cpv17]

The WPC is far from buying into the Euro. They’re very much siding with the GFS right now.

They are a forecast agency that uses blends of models, climo, synoptics, etc. There are never large swings and these forecast rain accumulations are often general and won’t visually show isolated, more extreme, totals.

Of course, ECMWF may not verify. But, there really isn’t any siding with model runs here.

Yeah, I’ve noticed that if the WPC makes changes they do it in small increments.

[Scott747]

18z GFS is coming in a little stronger with the northern 'lobe' though both areas north/south are disorganized.

[Stratton20]

GFS keeps the heaviest of the rains east of us while the Euro dumps it over most of SE Texas, gotta love the model disagreement here

[don]

HGX mentioning Flash Flood watches may be needed.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Showers and possible thunderstorms will be moving into our area from
the east beginning near the coast on Saturday morning and possibly in/around
the coastal counties and bays Saturday afternoon and evening as increasingly
deep tropical moisture partly associated with a Bay of Campeche area
tropical wave edges toward the Texas coast. A much deeper surge of moisture
with precipitable water values approaching a 2.00 to 2.50 inch range
works its way into our area beginning on Sunday and then persists through
at least the middle of the week. Dynamics look favorable for an increasing
risk of locally heavy rainfall (speed convergence near the surface and
diffluence aloft helping to eventually produce rainfall rates of at
least 2 to 3 inches per hour) somewhere in/around our area, but models
continue to show different locations (Matagorda Bay area to the Lake
Charles area) and amounts (highest bullseyes of 5 to 10 inches to much,
much, much higher) for this event. The potential does exist for these
high amounts to set up along/south of the I-10 corridor, but cannot
totally rule out the possibility that the highest amounts stay near
the coast or offshore. For this forecast package, expecting rainfall
totals of 3 to 8+ inches Sunday through midweek generally near/south
of that I-10 corridor (Flash Flood Watches might be needed) with totals
closer to 1 to 2 inches the farther north and inland you go (generally
north of a Brenham to Livingston line).

This forecast will likely change over the next couple of days, so make
sure you stay keep updated with the latest information.

[don]

NHC now has a medium chance of development.I suspect sometime tomorrow we will get an invest.

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Cpv17]

NHC now has a medium chance of development.I suspect sometime tomorrow we will get an invest.

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Interesting..they’re saying it’s just going to crash into Mexico.

[don]

The seem to be following the Euro which has the storm make landfall in north Mexico then riding the coastline just inland into the middle Texas coast.While the GFS has more energy further northeast and weaker than the EURO showing an open wave along the upper Texas coast instead.

[DoctorMu]

DON that is interesting as this scenario could allow for more rain further inland , i would take this here in CS, anything to break the heat here

With low dewpoints (low to mid 50s), 90°F is the new 70°F! Felt great out there today. Just stay hydrated.