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The good news today is areas in the Hill Country are benefiting from the surge of deep tropical moisture associated with the trough and an upper level disturbance near Brownsville along with all the tropical moisture extending down into the Bay of Campeche.

I've seen a few rounds of good storms through here today.

Lake Conroe is currently getting some heavy rain.

I had .58" the other day down in League City. Not much but better than last year at this time.

I'm looking at the water vapor loops, and the western edge of the dry air got close, but it quickly got shoved east and moisture appears to be overtaking it from the south, as it wraps around the ULL to the SW. Am I crazy or am I missing something? I just don't see all the dry air that's supposed to be here tomorrow.

Another day ahead were at least isolated showers/storms appear likely across SE and Central Texas. Two features are evident this morning. A sprawling upper low near Pensacola and a weaker upper level low across S Texas. Subsidence is noted with some drier air to our E across the Northern Gulf while the weak upper air disturbance across S Texas provides a moisture plume across the Middle Texas Coastal Plain into Central Texas and on further E into SE Texas. While the Lake Charles sounding may have been less hopeful for rain chances, Corpus Christi upper air sampling suggests deep tropical moisture is still in place. The HPC does mention the 'higher' QPF available for areas just to our W continuing into tonight. Isolated showers are noted offshore moving NW and those showers should move inland later this morning, mainly across our Western areas. Guidance is rather clear that hot and steamy conditions will build in over the weekend. Then all eyes turn to the Gulf as a broad area of disturbed weather lifts NW into the Central Gulf. Be sure to follow our updates in our Hurricane Central section for further analysis and discussions regarding this potential Tropical Trouble.

It looks like we are right on the edge of the deeper PW values (still on the moist side) today, so maybe a chance of one last round of scattered storms today. After today, it looks like the ridge will win out for awhile regardless of the PW values.

Not seeing much out there at all. Maybe we will still see a cell or two, but not very optimistic.

As for temps next week, not sure why all the fear of forecasting temps over 100 or disbelieving the 105 Euro output. I don't think I posted it, but I already hit 103F when we had that really hot day a couple of weeks ago, and this ridge is stronger than that.

Yikes. Forecast highs for the next six days in Austin:

99 - Saturday
102 - Sunday
104 - Monday
106 - Tuesday
104 - Wednesday
102 - Thursday

Really hoping that tropical system makes its way to Texas.

A NICE tropical system...nothing crazy!

With the heat ridge/high (whichever it is) over us/by us, wouldn't it be impossible for 96L to hit anywhere near our area? Just trying to get some clarification and unclog my poor confused mind. Thank you.

texoz wrote:Yikes. Forecast highs for the next six days in Austin:

99 - Saturday
102 - Sunday
104 - Monday
106 - Tuesday
104 - Wednesday
102 - Thursday

Really hoping that tropical system makes its way to Texas.

As long as it doesn't bring long-term power outages with temps like those!!! Talk about miserable.

We (Austinites) are hoping that 96L/Debby will have something to say about that triple digit heat later next week.

I'm late in the game here, but can someone tell me what the current expectations are for a possible tropical storm? (when, where)

weathermom wrote:I'm late in the game here, but can someone tell me what the current expectations are for a possible tropical storm? (when, where)

Check our Hurricane Central area, singlemon. Gene has a topic covering all the Gulf concerns...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1265

IF current track holds up ...we will probably be in the Upper 90's low 100's....ew.

Possible cool down along with possible showers thursday

The GFS and Euro are suggesting some tropical moisture working its way N along the Teaxs,Coast later this week and moving inland. We will see.

srainhoutx wrote:The GFS and Euro are suggesting some tropical moisture working its way N along the Teaxs,Coast later this week and moving inland. We will see.

Oh Im not going to hold my breathe....Debby already ripped my heart out once AND the Euro cheated us!

The big weather story the next couple of days will be the Heat. Near heat Advisory conditions are expected with the heat index nearing 105 to 110. There is a wrinkle in the forecast for late Tuesday. A disturbance in the mid and upper levels develops just beneath the Central US Ridge and we may have enough instability to generate some strong storms with the potential of strong to severe pulse type convective cells with hail and damaging winds being the main threat. Rain chances may increase further later this week as the ridge flattens and increasing Gulf moisture finally begins to stream NW and inland across the Region.

This thunderstorm chance tomorrow, Tuesday, has my full attention. With triple digits in the afternoon, those storms that fire could be severe. I will be VERY interested in the Tuesday morning soundings out of LCH and will be talking about the set up for storms on the air tomorrow morning. Also like what I see coming for later in the week with less heat and a rain chance.