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sleep on 1900

TROPICAL STORM #KARL FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 15
Location: 17.9°N 32.5°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

A handful of models has Julia crossing Florida into the Gulf. That would certainly be a highly unusual event in an unusual tropical season off the east coast.

DoctorMu wrote:A handful of models has Julia crossing Florida into the Gulf. That would certainly be a highly unusual event in an unusual tropical season off the east coast.

What a mess. I do hope it doesn't cross Florida into the Gulf. That'd be bad news for LA, I'm sure.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to
occur before it moves inland over Texas by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


Interesting. Might not get as much rain as we were hoping for, I'm afraid.

Convection firing up.

Looks like a rather vigorous shot of dry air is advancing SE across Texas behind a shortwave trough moving across the Southern Plains. My hunch is a majority of any weather will be across Southern Louisiana.

DoctorMu wrote:A handful of models has Julia crossing Florida into the Gulf. That would certainly be a highly unusual event in an unusual tropical season off the east coast.

Not unusual for a storm off the East Coast and hit Florida than enter the Gulf of Mexico. It is very rare.

Hurricane #2 1940
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Hurricane #3 1934
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Anyone notice that vort in the Northern Central Gulf?

GFS showing a classic early fall tropical set up with a low pressure system spinning up off the tail end of a front down in the BOC and pushing up the Texas coast next week. I can't post images from my pc so hopefully somewhat else will shortly.

The overnight global and ensemble guidance suggests a developing tropical disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean will move quickly West throughout the coming work week and enter the Caribbean Sea next weekend where conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable for Tropical development, particularly in in Central and Western Caribbean Sea.

Atmospheric conditions such as climatology, a very robust MJO pulse and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave are working in favor of this potential tropical troublemaker at the end of September/first of October. While it is certainly too soon to know exactly where the system may go, interests from Central America to Bermuda will need to monitor developments, particularly next weekend as the reliable computer models agree that there is a possibility of a powerful Hurricane lurking the Caribbean Sea moving generally W to WNW reminding us that Hurricane Season is not over for the Western Atlantic Basin.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression
Lisa, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is
located south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system approaches the
Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Brennan

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 1h1 hour ago
(*not* a forecast) There is historical precedent for TCs entering Caribbean at low latitude & becoming major hurricanes during 9/20-10/10:

This one is going to get LOTS of attention and rightfully so. Looks like all global models are bombing this out once in the central/western Caribbean. Where it goes after that is all guess work. Hopefully a front will guide this thing East of us. Climatology strongly suggest that but sometimes mother nature doesn't play by the rules.

Good chance it will develop, but steering currents once it gets to the central Caribbean are not well-defined. It would be VERY hard for a storm to reach Texas in October, though not impossible. If it does become a hurricane then I'd look for a Florida impact as a fair possibility. Of course, I have a Florida vacation scheduled for the 10th-14th (Disney). It better not go there!

Wxman, I can see why you would say Florida because of the calendar but I also see that the NWS seems to be calling for normal to above normal temps for us here along the Texas coast through at least mid October. That tells me that we really won't have any decent fronts during that time period. Anyways, just a little something to throw into the discussion.

GFS suggests the likely INVEST 97L will move quickly across the Atlantic at a low latitude and begin to slow down as it near the Lesser Antilles around Wednesday possibly attempting to organize as it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea about 150 miles N of Venezuela. The system via the GFS appears to be far enough N of the South American Caribbean Coast to continue organizing as the upper air pattern become very conducive for tropical development as a very robust anticyclone develops over the surface low allowing for excellent ventilation and a vertically stack tropical cyclone to wrap up. Wind shear decreases across the Central and Western Caribbean Sea further indicating that conditions may be conducive for tropical development and potentially rapidly.
It is worth noting that Reconnaissance Aircraft will begin positioning in St Croix either tomorrow or Monday in preparation to investigate this tropical disturbance. While it is way too soon to know with any certainty what the upper air pattern may be next weekend and beyond across North America, the GFS suggests a rather strong Central and SE Ridge may be in place, but that far into the future, we can take that with a grain of salt. This tropical disturbance in my opinion is worth monitoring, particularly in a strange year of transitioning from a strong El Nino and climatology that indicates some noteworthy Major Tropical Cyclones in past years have traveled rather far South across the Caribbean Sea at this time of year and impacted the Western Atlantic Basin anywhere from Belize to Bermuda. This one bears watching.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Huge signal out of our climate models for anomalous warmth across the eastern U.S. during the first week of October pic.twitter.com/LvxFs3wUSb

It showed Florida the previous 2 runs and now Mexico today. I liked the 6z run with 40's for lows here instead! (+300 hrs away).

wxman57 wrote:Good chance it will develop, but steering currents once it gets to the central Caribbean are not well-defined. It would be VERY hard for a storm to reach Texas in October, though not impossible. If it does become a hurricane then I'd look for a Florida impact as a fair possibility. Of course, I have a Florida vacation scheduled for the 10th-14th (Disney). It better not go there!

Ok make up your mind is it going to Florida or is it going somewhere else because you're going to Florida,and if not where will it end up.

Worrisome to see the Global models coming into agreement. The 12Z ECMWF suggests a strong tropical cyclone eerily similar to what the GFS solution suggested.

The Euro stays on board with a powerful cane in the Caribbean. After briefly looking over another weather board....bow howdy, them Floridians WANT a major cane in a BAD way! lol They can have this one.