August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[unome]

00Z update shows Harvey in the Southern Gulf. Early track and intensity guidance. Good night folks. Long days ahead it appears.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 8866804736

All G-IV dropsondes should be in the 00z models, along w/special soundings across the South- time to watch for any #Harvey model shifts

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast ... .php?large

GMZ001-231415-
Synopsis for the Gulf of Mexico
1001 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The remnant low of tropical cyclone Harvey has moved over water along the Yucatan coast near 21N91W at 1009 mb and will move NW across the SW Gulf through Wed, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone. The low will then continue NW across the west central and NW Gulf through Fri and is expected to strengthen.

[ticka1]

still no llc with ex harvey?

[stormlover]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=140


Nam

[Scott747]

Oz gfs is running. NCEP status message doesnt mention the dropsondes or special soundings. Have to believe they are in there regardless.

[Scott747]

So far through 30 hrs looks a touch slower and slightly e.

[Scott747]

Hr 48 it's still e and weaker. Looks like matagorda bay or n unless it slows and hooks back w.

[Ptarmigan]

The latest NAM forecast has Harvey as a Category 5 hurricane on Friday. That is unlikely.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_60.png

[Scott747]

Comes in around sargent as a cat 1 late friday/early saturday and then moving n towards houston

[jasons2k]

Yeah, and moving very slowly. Incredible rainfall and flooding over Houston Metro with this run.

[davidiowx]

That was certainly not pleasant to see.. did that have the GIV data in it? Very similar to last nights run.

It's moving so slowwww

[Rip76]

These are not good runs for Houston.

[jasons2k]

That was certainly not pleasant to see.. did that have the GIV data in it? Very similar to last nights run.

It's moving so slowwww

Yes, full dropsonde data set in the 00Z runs.

[DoctorMu]

Oy.

[DoctorMu]

Still ominous ensemble.

[sau27]

Looks like the 0z GFS gives us a bigger first punch than previous runs, but moved it out a little bit faster. Still 10-12+ inches of rain though.

[srainhoutx]

From James Spann via Twitter suggests much higher rainfall amounts across SE Texas from that GFS solution.

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/9 ... 9896138752

[unome]

Levi had a good update video tonight

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 3034145795

[Scott747]

Oz hwrf into port lavaca.