September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu I havent been outside in a while, im stuck inside my apartment for the next few days because I got covid, but yeah even before I was sick I could barely be outside on campus for an hour before id absolutely be soaked head to toe in sweat, this heat aint no jokelooking forward to the day of attending a cold aggie football game

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the Euro done gone loco again.

GFS targets the coast and east, GEM rain dump focuses on San Antonio, UM is lighter and offshore. Bears watching during the weekend and early next week before there's confidence in the forecast.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu I havent been outside in a while, im stuck inside my apartment for the next few days because I got covid, but yeah even before I was sick I could barely be outside on campus for an hour before id absolutely be soaked head to toe in sweat, this heat aint no jokelooking forward to the day of attending a cold aggie football game

Yeah, throw 70K students in the soup without vaccine and mask mandates, pack 'em like sardines in the game...and stochastic viral doses win! Hope you feel better soon.

It was hot for a night game at the Kent State game, for sure! Think about a September game back in old Kyle Field during the daytime with astroturf. The local ERs would fill with heat stroke patients.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yikes haha! And thanks ! Hope the home game next week wont be put in jeopardy because of what kind of weather we may have next week, I already missed one home game, if weather cancels the next home game, i literally will be depressed

[Texaspirate11]

I just hope Louisiana doesnt get more rain. I dont know who put the JuJu on them. Wish the models could agree on something...i hate the wait. Hard to get the word out to the vulnerable

[Scott747]

0z GFS has trended towards the Euro. Strong reflection that rides up the coast just offshore from Tampico towards Matagorda. Surprised it doesn't show it a little stronger.

[don]

The 0z GFS has trended towards the Euro developing a weak tropical storm or depression along the Mexican coast and the storm riding the coast northward along the Texas coast as it weakens. The system doesn't produce a lot of rain though because it's weaker than what the Euro shows and therfore has a harder time pulling significant moisture inland.

[Stratton20]

Well thats a trend to watch, this system has a ton of moisture to work with, someones going to get some ugly totals next week, where that occurs is anyones guess

[Texaspirate11]

The 0z GFS has trended towards the Euro developing a weak tropical storm or depression along the Mexican coast and the storm riding the coast northward along the Texas coast as it weakens. The system doesn't produce a lot of rain though because it's weaker than what the Euro shows and therfore has a harder time pulling significant moisture inland.

Thank you

[Cpv17]

That run of the GFS doesn’t help clear things up at all really. It basically puts on its brakes right before Matagorda and just stalls out offshore and dissipates. Only rain is along the coastline and the heavy stuff remains offshore.

[Cpv17]

The CMC is now showing potential for heavy rainfall as well.

[Scott747]

The models aren't that supportive (ensembles mildly so) but the NHC sure is bullish. Now up to 60% and the highlighted area keeps moving up the coast with parts of the lower texas coast now in the TWO 'cone.'

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea,
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form Sunday or
Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[DoctorMu]

0z GFS has trended towards the Euro. Strong reflection that rides up the coast just offshore from Tampico towards Matagorda. Surprised it doesn't show it a little stronger.

And vice versa. Euro moved markedly towards GFS sol'n. Large gradient from Galveston to College Station.

[weatherguy425]

The models aren't that supportive (ensembles mildly so) but the NHC sure is bullish. Now up to 60% and the highlighted area keeps moving up the coast with parts of the lower texas coast now in the TWO 'cone.'

1. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea,
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form Sunday or
Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of
Mexico coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Though, their summary is a little more telling - "tropical depression". The chance would be based on any classification, even minimal. Environment doesn't look all that favorable as it nears the coast; potential to wrap in dry air and it may encounter more wind shear as it gains latitude. But, of course, that's not set in stone.

[weatherguy425]

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea,
and portions of the Yucatan peninsula. This system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface
trough located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support
gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western
Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance
is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Central
America through Saturday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Heavy rainfall increasingly likely along the TX coast early next week.

Tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the SW Gulf late this weekend or early next week.

Big shift in the weather pattern coming to SE TX with current cool mornings (59 at Crockett this morning) quickly being replaced with a tropical air mass late Saturday into Sunday. Plume of deep tropical moisture currently across the central and southern Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift west and approach the TX coast late on Saturday and then begin to surge inland on Sunday. Rain chances will be limited to the coast on Saturday and then spreading inland on Sunday. Trough axis will set up near the coast late Sunday while tropical entity in the SW or W Gulf moves NW. Low level speed convergence near the coast late Sunday night will likely lead to significant shower and thunderstorms develop near and offshore with some of this activity moving inland. Moisture profiles become saturated by Sunday afternoon and excessive rainfall amounts will be possible Sunday night-Tuesday with waves or bands of storms. Will have to closely watch for an organized banding of the rainfall and where this may occur.

Rainfall totals of 5-8 inches will be likely near the coast with 3-5 inches widespread south of I-10 and lower amounts north of I-10. This is subject to change and spread further inland based on any formation of a tropical system. Isolate totals, especially near the coast could be significant. Many times in these sort of set ups, heavy rains near the coast can “rob” inland areas of a deep moisture feed and reduce inland rainfall amounts.

SW Gulf:

NHC has raised the chances for tropical development in the SW/W Gulf to 70%. While the tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea is currently disorganized, it is forecasted to move into the Bay of Campeche and then SW Gulf this weekend where conditions appears more favorable for development. Global forecast models have been inconsistent in where any surface feature may develop and track, but ensemble support has been increasing. This will need to be monitored closely as the expected rainfall event along the TX coast could be impacted by the formation of a defined surface low which would help to band the rainfall on the eastern flank of the feature as well as concentrate some of the heaviest rains near the center.

Monitor forecasts closely over the weekend as changes are likely.

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro shifted way east and offshore with the higher totals and is much more progressive so the totals aren’t nearly as high as yesterday’s 12z but it remains on the eastern side of its own guidance. If you take a look at the EPS it has most of its ensemble members west of the op run. Still need more models runs to help clear things up but per the WPC, confidence is growing for a lot of rain across southeast TX.

[Stormlover2020]

06 euro pretty dirty

[don]

Starting to look more likely that a weak TC will develop in a few days and move towards the middle or upper Texas coast instead of into Mexico.Still too early to know exact impacts as that will depend on the organization and track.

[Texaspirate11]

looks like it will be a real frog strangler near me down by the coast.