Long range model discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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snowman65
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currently -73 in Russia... much like last year at this time, hang on...
Stratton20
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ill never understand how people over on that side of the world can live with that kind of cold, I love the cold but man -73 below is just beyond brutal 🥶🥶
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DoctorMu
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Dropping this here and ducking...

https://news.yahoo.com/el-nino-appears- ... 38738.html

Hey, there could be more polar vortex invasions into Texas...
Stratton20
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Interesting! A potential collapse of el nino in january? Not sure ive ever heard of that happening that fast before, I guess we will see if that happens, could have major implications on our winter
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:01 am Interesting! A potential collapse of el nino in january? Not sure ive ever heard of that happening that fast before, I guess we will see if that happens, could have major implications on our winter
It wouldn’t impact our winter this year due to the lag. Next winter has big potential along with this coming hurricane season.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I for one would rather not have another busy hurricane system, hopefully we can keep most systems away from the gulf
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 1:31 pm Cpv17 I for one would rather not have another busy hurricane system, hopefully we can keep most systems away from the gulf
The Caribbean and Gulf are expected to be hotspots this coming season.
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sambucol
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That’s not good.
Harp1
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I’m not even THINKING about hurricane season yet.
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sambucol
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I wasn’t either, until I saw Cpv’s post!
Cpv17
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sambucol wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 2:52 pm I wasn’t either, until I saw Cpv’s post!
Read the 2024 Hurricane Season thread.
Stratton20
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Long range but wow thats an incredibly deep trough on the 18z GFS, maybe a sitn of things to come in january, also seeing blocking over alaska becoming established
Cpv17
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I’m still not really seeing a favorable look in the long range on the ensembles for any decent cold shots. Sure it gets cold but nothing really out of the ordinary for the time of the year. Not enough blocking over Alaska showing up on the ensembles.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 and we dont need that, just marginal cold for a nice event
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:13 pm Cpv17 and we dont need that, just marginal cold for a nice event
Not where I live. Maybe central or north Texas, not my location.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 ah gotcha, I do think this upcoming pattern has potential with that block retrograding towards alaska,just how kuch or atrong that blocking is remains to be seen, at the worst though we should have more opportunities for rain, but hopefully we can get a couple of good snow events, not ice
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:41 pm Cpv17 ah gotcha, I do think this upcoming pattern has potential with that block retrograding towards alaska,just how kuch or atrong that blocking is remains to be seen, at the worst though we should have more opportunities for rain, but hopefully we can get a couple of good snow events, not ice
I’m thinking late January into February will be our best chance.
Stratton20
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Im hearing talk about a major SSWE in late december with down stream effects felt in the 2nd week of january, blake matthews posted about this on twitter, very interesting
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sambucol
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That sounds promising! We would feel the effects in SETX?
Stratton20
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Sambucol maybe, SSWE ‘s can be unpredictable though
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