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Thanks wxman

Sounds good!!! A few AM scattered showers I can handle. Let us know if it looks like it may speed up.

And to all on the forum have a Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Dan

This kind of thing doesn't excite cloud2ground:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
902 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

SOME PRETTY DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE SHOWING UP IN THIS AFTERNOON`S
AND EVENING`S MOS GUIDANCE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.
23/18Z GFS EXAMPLES INCLUDE...

- IAH WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LOW OF 40 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
- HOU WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 82 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LOW OF 41 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
- LVJ WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 84 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LOW OF 42 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

EVEN MORE AMAZING AND NEWLY ARRIVED 24/00Z NAM EXAMPLES INCLUDE...

- CLL WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 87 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LOW OF 35 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.
- PSX WILL HAVE A HIGH OF 80 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND A
LOW OF 37 DEGREES ON FRIDAY MORNING.

TWO MORE "NICE" DAYS LEFT FOR THOSE THAT LIKE THE WARMTH! 42



The new 0z GFS has a high of 80 early thursday afternoon before fropa, a low of 39 friday morning, and a low of 31 saturday morning

Well, this interesting. It seems we may have been right all along about a potential SE TX freeze event after all...

Houston/Galveston...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST
THIS MORNING AND THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE N
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL LAG BACK FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE A VERY COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS COLD
AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE N PLAINS. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
REACHING THE RED RIVER. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ARE ALL ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH 18Z THUR HOWEVER THE GFS
SPEEDS UP THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHES IT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF LAG BEHIND
THE GFS BY A FEW HOURS. AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED TO STICK WITH
THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION AS FRONT USUALLY HAVE A HARD TIME
MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE MAX HEATING OF THE DAY. I
STILL THINK WE WILL SEE A THIN LINE OF STORMS FORM ALONG THE
FRONT SO WILL BUMP POPS UP A TAD MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WILL BE WHERE THE MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND THEN WELL INTO THE GULF BY FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER C TX.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE TX THAN BEFORE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE
AIRMASS BEING VERY DRY AS DEWPOINT TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. WINDS SHOULD BE CALM WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVEN THE
SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER SE TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DROP BELOW
FREEZING ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 HOURS.

HPC:

A POWERFUL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER AS ANOMALOUS COLD AND SNOWY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A VIGOROUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES...STRONG WINDS HOWLING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BLOW AROUND ANY OF THE SNOW THAT HAD FALLEN
EARLIER RESULTING IN POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TO MAKE MATTERS
MORE PROBLEMATIC...FRIGID AIR WILL INHABIT THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW THE ZERO DEGREE MARK. AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL
BE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN BY
THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL EFFECTS WILL
BE LASTING AS THIS SHOULD LIKELY CREATE HEADACHES FOR THOSE
TRAVELING DURING THIS THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

AS THIS STRONG DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARD THE EAST...PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BETTER
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST LIFT FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED. FLOODING
IS A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW A BIT WHICH WILL HELP
CONCENTRATE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
U.S. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...A WINTRY MIXTURE
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL SPAN FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOCALIZED HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN A COMMA-HEAD OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED NEAR THE
FRONTAL OCCLUSION. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...A SIGNIFICANT
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY USHER IN THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS. LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTER OF THE NATION WHICH WILL BE IN THE
50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY MAY BARELY SEE READINGS ABOVE FREEZING ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. ALL OF THIS WILD WEATHER WILL EVENTUALLY REACH
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY FRIDAY WHILE AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.

The Arctic Front is diving S this morning across NE, CO, WY, and SD...

Here's the latest meteogram for IAH. It has frontal passage just before 6pm tomorrow. That would mean a line of storms moving across the city between 3pm and 6pm. Not much rain before then.

Srain - can you please post the link to the above image? Like look at where the front is and how much its dropping temps.

ticka1 wrote:Srain - can you please post the link to the above image? Like look at where the front is and how much its dropping temps.

Here you go. Click on the area you want to 'watch'...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

Although no severe storms are currently forecast via the SPC for our area, we'll need to monitor this as we get closer to tomorrow across Eastern TX...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PREVALENT CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THE BRUNT OF THIS TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY EXTENSIVE EARLY DAY
CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS SHOULD
BE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SOME SEVERE
RISK MAY EXIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY.

...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STEADILY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION...TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AND CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY OWING TO THE POTENTIAL EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...VIA THE EASTWARD RACING BASAL PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER/SUSTAINED STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
SOME SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

..GUYER.. 11/24/2010

12Z GFS still brings the front in between 5:30pm and 6pm tomorrow:

E-mail from Jeff...

Powerful cold front will arrive across SE TX on Thanksgiving Day.

Very cold NW Canadian air mass is moving southward down the central plains and will enter N TX late tonight and then sweep rapidly across the state on Thursday. Ahead of this front, strong low pressure is supporting the advection of a very warm and humid air mass over the region off the western Gulf of Mexico with near to record highs expected today across most of SE TX. Air mass is capped with only a few "streamer" showers moving quickly from south to north with amounts mainly under .10 of an inch.

Front will arrive into the northern sections of SE TX around early afternoon Thursday and reach the metro areas around sunset and be off the coast around 900pm. Highs will reach the lower 80's prior to the front and then fall quickly into the 50's and 40's behind the boundary with strong NW winds. Best moisture will reside E of I-45 and only a thin line of showers/thunderstorms is expected right along the boundary. Best rain chances will be E of I-45 with chances lowest around Matagorda Bay where moisture will be weakest and capping the strongest.

Clouds should clear the area early Friday morning, but cold air advection will continue resulting in highs only in the mid 50's on Friday.

Clear skies, light winds, and very dry air mass will allow for near excellent cooling conditions on Friday night. First widespread freeze of the season is likely for much of the area with lows ranging from the upper 20's north of HWY 105 to around freezing for most other areas, except the beach. Some locations will be at or below freezing for 3-5 hours Saturday morning and proper precuations should be taken to protect tender tropical vegetation and citrus crops. This should effectivly end the growing season for the area.

Core of the cold dome will push fairly quickly eastward allowing for a fast turn around in southerly winds by late Saturday and a warming trend back into the mid to upper 60's by Sunday. Next strong front is due in early next week.

Quick update on the Arctic Front. The boundary is currently in Western Kansas/Colorado heading S...

Some areas could be in a freeze this weekend.

The NWS has Porter, Montgomery County down for upper 20s Saturday morning.
Low 30s for sure, in Montgomery County. Conroe always checks in colder than some.
Freeze and Frost warnings for many in s.e. Texas are surely to be posted soon.

The next batch of cold air coming down in a few days looks even colder, as of this writing. I hope it lasts longer than the current one will.

Happy Thansgiving, everybody.

Dan, we miss you as the holidays near.
Sweet and sour is in order. Thank God for all
the blessings, otherwise.

Another quick update. Arctic Front passed Liberal, KS with a 22 degree temp fall. The front is now surging S rather quickly and may well be ahead of schedule. Also, Happy Thanksgiving Folks. BB, I was telling jcarr a couple of days ago just how much I miss Dan as well.

srainhoutx wrote:Another another quick update. Arctic Front passed Liberal, KS with a 22 degree temp fall. The front is now surging S rather quickly and may well be ahead of schedule. Also, Happy Thanksgiving Folks. BB, I was telling jcarr a couple of days ago just how much I miss Dan as well.

I know. I miss Dan sooo much right now. Sigh.

sorry if I sound arrogant but, who was Dan and where did he go? I've seen a lot of people talk about him.

helloitsb wrote:sorry if I sound arrogant but, who was Dan and where did he go? I've seen a lot of people talk about him.

Dan Meador...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=362

helloitsb wrote:sorry if I sound arrogant but, who was Dan and where did he go? I've seen a lot of people talk about him.

Dan Meador used to be the KHOU weatherman and ran this board. Sadly, he passed away in September.

Ptarmigan wrote:

helloitsb wrote:sorry if I sound arrogant but, who was Dan and where did he go? I've seen a lot of people talk about him.

Dan Meador used to be the KHOU weatherman and ran this board. Sadly, he passed away in September.

Oh ok thanks for telling me