January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[MontgomeryCoWx]

On a light hearted note, this board would implode if this ensemble run verified. That’s some 1895 stuff right there. LOL

[harp]

On a light hearted note, this board would implode if this ensemble run verified. That’s some 1895 stuff right there. LOL

That's one ensemble run out of how many?

[jasons2k]

NWS now has me at 27F both Saturday and Sunday nights. I will definitely be prepping Saturday afternoon after the rain moves out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

26 I believe.

About 40% of the ensemble runs have some winter weather event between now and modeled end.

[Kingwood36]

our local met says nothing to fear with the front this weekend, and I trust him. just as I suspected...and have been saying....we aren't getting anything worth writing home about this year....barely below freezing for a few hours is nothing special. you keep model watching more than 4 days out, you will keep getting disappointed.

I can’t stand posts like this that have no factual backup. It also keeps people away that don’t know much about weather as they let their guard down again.

You will be wrong and I’m 100% positive on that. When I look at our long term winter weather signals, you don’t get a better mix than what is on the horizon. Hell, this weekend is the first front of many. This setup is primed for a huge late January and February.

It’s easy to be negative and go with the norm with no factual basis. I’ll side with 30 years of weather watching and pro Mets.

I work in the O&G industry and we are being prepped for a brutal end of Winter.

I work for baker hughes who do you work for?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

our local met says nothing to fear with the front this weekend, and I trust him. just as I suspected...and have been saying....we aren't getting anything worth writing home about this year....barely below freezing for a few hours is nothing special. you keep model watching more than 4 days out, you will keep getting disappointed.

I can’t stand posts like this that have no factual backup. It also keeps people away that don’t know much about weather as they let their guard down again.

You will be wrong and I’m 100% positive on that. When I look at our long term winter weather signals, you don’t get a better mix than what is on the horizon. Hell, this weekend is the first front of many. This setup is primed for a huge late January and February.

It’s easy to be negative and go with the norm with no factual basis. I’ll side with 30 years of weather watching and pro Mets.

I work in the O&G industry and we are being prepped for a brutal end of Winter.

I work for baker hughes who do you work for?

I’m the O&G vertical market Mgr for one of your suppliers.

[Kingwood36]

I can’t stand posts like this that have no factual backup. It also keeps people away that don’t know much about weather as they let their guard down again.

You will be wrong and I’m 100% positive on that. When I look at our long term winter weather signals, you don’t get a better mix than what is on the horizon. Hell, this weekend is the first front of many. This setup is primed for a huge late January and February.

It’s easy to be negative and go with the norm with no factual basis. I’ll side with 30 years of weather watching and pro Mets.

I work in the O&G industry and we are being prepped for a brutal end of Winter.

I work for baker hughes who do you work for?

I’m the O&G vertical market Mgr for one of your suppliers.

I'll be damn..lol small world!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I work for baker hughes who do you work for?

I’m the O&G vertical market Mgr for one of your suppliers.

I'll be damn..lol small world!

Definitely. I seem to be having more and more of those as I get older. I was sitting in a cafe in Bozeman, MT not long ago and ran into an old acquaintance from High School (I went to HS in East Texas).

[CRASHWX]

I’m the O&G vertical market Mgr for one of your suppliers.

I'll be damn..lol small world!

Definitely. I seem to be having more and more of those as I get older. I was sitting in a cafe in Bozeman, MT not long ago and ran into an old acquaintance from High School (I went to HS in East Texas).

What part of East Texas? My mom and dad live in Montgomery... they live in Walden on Lake Conroe

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'll be damn..lol small world!

Definitely. I seem to be having more and more of those as I get older. I was sitting in a cafe in Bozeman, MT not long ago and ran into an old acquaintance from High School (I went to HS in East Texas).

What part of East Texas? My mom and dad live in Montgomery... they live in Walden on Lake Conroe

I grew up in Longview. We live on the Montgomery/Magnolia line but feed into Magnolia ISD.

[Cromagnum]

The more these systems are talked about a week ahead of time, the more it seems that they don't pan out. Gonna take a surprise to get us some real cold down here.

[jasons2k]

Now the NWS has me at 29 Saturday night and 28 Sunday night. A tad warmer. Will be anxiously awaiting the PM package to see if this favorable trend (for me at least) continues.

I’ve been thinking about changing my screen name to Return Flow!

[tireman4]

This caught my eye..

Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.




179
FXUS64 KHGX 161147
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
547 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings prevail this morning but a continued increase in low
level moisture beneath a capping inversion and the development of
a coastal trough will yield showers today with a transition to
IFR/LIFR cigs later today. LIFR/IFR cigs expected overnight with
areas of fog and drizzle accompanying the lower cigs. Some
improvement expected after 12z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Stratus cloud deck prevailed across the region with drizzle to
light rain over the southwestern counties of Jackson, Matagorda,
and Wharton overnight. Some very light passing showers moved
through portions of the coastal areas from time to time. No
significant accumulation was observed with this rainfall.

Warm air advection pattern and southerly winds will continue
into Friday which will rise temperatures during the next few days
and increase moisture transport over the local area. High
temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with low
temperatures staying in the mid to upper 50s. High temperatures
on Thursday and Friday will rise up to the 70s and lows will range
in the mid 50s to low 60 Thursday night and Friday night. A
surface low pressure will continue to move southeastward further
enhancing surface moisture and increasing shower activity today
through Thursday morning. Most of the rainfall amounts however
should remain below a quarter of an inch...the coastal regions
and Gulf waters could experience slightly higher amounts but
should be less than half an inch.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage and
intensity Friday into Saturday as warm air advection increases
Friday evening and strong upper level trough moves through SE TX
Friday night through Saturday morning. Some strong storms with
periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds is expected to develop
ahead and along the frontal boundary. PWAT values continue to
range between 1.00 to 1.60 inches during this period. Associated
cold front is expected to pass through Saturday brining in much
colder air over the area. Although the new temperature trend is
now slightly warmer than the ones from past few days, low
temperatures still dip down into the upper 20s North of I-10 and
into the low to mid 30s South of I-10 Saturday and Sunday night.
Winds are expected to increase in the wake of the cold front, thus
apparent temperatures north of I-10 still drop down at or below
20s and in the low to mid 20s south of I-10. High temperatures
should be between the mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.

A dry air mass will prevail across the local area Sunday and
Monday with southerly flow returning Monday and temperatures
gradually rising through Tuesday. The next cold front could move
across SE TX Tuesday and Wednesday.

MARINE...

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten today as low pressure
develops over the TX panhandle and SE winds will strengthen. The
moderate onshore flow will bring deeper moisture into the coastal
waters and there is some potential for sea fog Thursday night-Friday
night. The increasing onshore flow will also boost tide levels by
early Friday but water levels will remain critical thresholds.
SCEC/SCA flags may be needed Fri night in advance of a very strong
arctic cold front. Sustained NW winds will reach 30 knots in the
wake of the front. Wind gusts on Saturday night may exceed gale
force at times. An SCA or Gale Watch may be required Saturday night
into early Sunday. The strong offshore wind may push water away from
the coast and a Low Water Advisory may also be needed Sat night into
Sunday. Onshore winds will return late Sunday night as high
pressure pushes east of the region. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 55 72 55 73 / 30 30 10 10 40
Houston (IAH) 61 56 72 57 72 / 40 50 20 10 50
Galveston (GLS) 61 58 66 59 67 / 50 50 30 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...25
Aviation/Marine...43

[CRASHWX]

> 16 day mean snow coverage
> temps departure from averages up to March
> temps in 6-11 and 11-16

o

[srainhoutx]

Just a friendly reminder why we don't trust the verbatim computer schemes beyond the 3 to 5 day range...

18Z GFS Tuesday:

00Z GFS Wednesday:

[CRASHWX]

Srain if you were presenting pretty water color project that would be awesome! YOU ARE RIGHT SIR!

[jasons2k]

This caught my eye..

Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.

yeah, that was in yesterday's AFD too. I interpreted that to mean "we have low confidence in the forecast" especially since the models had just flipped on them. That said - it's Wednesday now - they should have a handle on it at this point, but everyone seems to be struggling with this one.

[CRASHWX]

I don’t think they are going to have a handle till the temps upstream begain to varify and they get a handle on how much modification occurs? That could be 24 to 48 hours out

[jasons2k]

DarkSky (which probably uses just raw model outputs) has me at 34 Sun AM and 33 Monday AM. I would love it if that’s right.

The run yesterday evening felt great after warming up, but geez my nose just won’t stop running in the cold. I prefer it to be in the 60’s at least....

[tireman4]

This caught my eye..

Be prepared for
the colder temperatures and windy conditions, but keep in mind,
this forecast could still have additional modifications.

yeah, that was in yesterday's AFD too. I interpreted that to mean "we have low confidence in the forecast" especially since the models had just flipped on them. That said - it's Wednesday now - they should have a handle on it at this point, but everyone seems to be struggling with this one.

I interpreted the same way Jason. I thought it to mean, " This is a very fluid situation and any and everything can change, stay tuned"