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BoC brew is starting. Just a disorganized pitcher of lemonade late week please.

12Z Euro ensembles.

JESUS!!!!!

Interesting, we shall see what happens, I got a gut feeling this systen might surprise us, not saying its definitely gonna happen, but we have seen this with gulf/ BOC systems before

This system will have to fight dry air later down the road

That is very true, but we have seen systems overcome dry air and shear before, just depends on if this system can sustain a healthy circulation

Informative video (as usual) on Invest92 by Levi Cowan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3el7qjBoOo

The Euro has a 40” bullseye over Lafayette. Definitely don’t need that to happen.

Cpv17 Holy crap, 40 inches?? Now obviously thats going to change, but thats something to watch very carefully

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:18 pm The Euro has a 40” bullseye over Lafayette. Definitely don’t need that to happen.

Thats what i was afraid of....

From HGX afternoon discussion.

.TROPICAL...

Significant uncertainty remains regarding the potential future
development of the disturbance near the Gulf of Campeche and it is
still far too early to consider a potential track of any system
that may form. However, slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days as it moves slowly and
erratically, and a tropical depression could form near the Bay of
Campeche by the middle of next week. Typically with these
disturbances, once they do get more organized and confidence
increases with its track, there will not be as much of an advanced
warning as we would typically like to see, so now is always a good
time to ensure your hurricane preparedness plans for the season
have been finalized. KBL

GFS trended west. The latest run shows dry air being less of an issue ! This trend is concerning

Shows a fairly large sized system hooking more east south of Louisiana close to the coast with landfall central La. Last run was it being sheared apart towards Florida panhandle.

The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

Yep definitely seems the GFS has a more healthy storm than one being sheared apart, that is pretty concerning, and its just meanders the system around in the Northwestern Gulf, definitely bot a good sign, like I said we could see surprises with this system, and this model run is definitely indicating that

Harveyvsallison wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:49 pm The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

18z GFS is just a rinse and repeat of last year's tropical season.

Still a long way out.

DoctorMu yes its 6 days out but it is coming into line with what the Euro is showing,

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:05 pm DoctorMu yes its 6 days out but it is coming into line with what the Euro is showing,

I would watch the euro Ensembles ! (EPS)

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 6:03 pm

Harveyvsallison wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:49 pm The latest GFS shifts towards the TX/LA border. The latest run also shows us getting 2-4 inches of rain out of this ! I think models will shift for a few more days. Today’s trend has been west. Something to watch

18z GFS is just a rinse and repeat of last year's tropical season.

Still a long way out.

We are slowly being able to possibly narrow down possibilities. I’d say if you’re living anywhere from Corpus Christi to Baton Rouge, you have a shot at something

Harveyvallison I have been! Seems like the Euro ensemble members are pretty adamant on a Texas landfall