Re: July 2021
Posted: Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:00 pm
Mega chance of rain (60-70% in CLL) Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Death Ridge begins to lurk in the panhandle next weekend. Any rain we get during the week helps to keep it away.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon and Tonight]...
Drier and dusty/hazy air in place over SETX this morning will keep
it hazy this afternoon. Temperatures should climb into the 91-96
degree range a degree or 2 warmer than climo. Rain chances on the
spare side with slight chances for areas generally east of Wharton
to Sealy to Huntsville line as the seabreeze develops this
afternoon. Warm aloft with 700-500mb ridging centered atop
Freeport with subsidence evident on satellite on the northwest
flank of the ridge...i.e. much of SETX. This should hamper the
development of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. By 6
pm expect any storms that may form to rapidly dissipate. Overnight
light winds, mostly clear to clear skies and balmy conditions.
45
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR through 09z with scattered CU. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible
near the seabreeze in the vicinity of HOU/IAH/DWH/CXO. By 01z
expect these to have come to an end if not sooner. Patchy fog at
UTS/CXO/LBX toward morning and brief MVFR ceilings mainly north
near UTS/CXO. Guidance seems a little bullish with moisture return
Sunday and will introduce VCSH after 16-17z for IAH southward but
this may be overkill.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/...
.LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday]
On Monday, a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the
great basin will retreat N-NW and this will allow a strong short
wave rounding the top of the ridge to slide southward and aid in
carving out an upper level weakness in the base of an upper level
trough of low pressure that will extend from new England into the
Arklatex. Lowering 500 mb heights, PW values near 2.00 inches,
daytime heating and the sea breeze should set the stage for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase on
Tuesday as the weakness aloft evolves into a closed upper level
low, moisture levels stay high and a weak surface cold front will
move toward the northern edge of the CWA. The front looks like it
will stall near a KCLL to KDRK line but weak convergence along the
boundary will need to be watched for some potentially heavy rain.
More of the same on Wednesday as the upper low over East Texas
shifts very slowly west toward the central part of the state. The
front will become diffuse during the day and will be less of a
focus for heavy rain but the weakness aloft and PW values near
2.00 inches will continue to foster daytime showers and storms.
Upper level riding will develop over the eastern Gulf Wednesday
night and the ridge will expand into eastern Texas on Thursday.
The CWA will be caught between the expanding ridge and the
weakness over Central TX. 500 heights will build to between
592-594 DM. There will be some low/mid level moisture trapped
beneath the expanding ridge so can`t rule out additional shra/tsra
but the building heights portends slightly drier conditions. The
ridge expands further on Friday but a weak short wave on the
backside of a long wave trough that extends into Texas will give
the NE half of the region another chance for showers and storms.
The upper ridge over the Rockies then becomes the dominant weather
feature for next weekend. The ridge expands east and becomes
centered over the Texas panhandle by early next week. Warmer and
drier conditions expected next weekend into early next week. 43
The Death Ridge begins to lurk in the panhandle next weekend. Any rain we get during the week helps to keep it away.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
107 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021
.SHORT TERM [This Afternoon and Tonight]...
Drier and dusty/hazy air in place over SETX this morning will keep
it hazy this afternoon. Temperatures should climb into the 91-96
degree range a degree or 2 warmer than climo. Rain chances on the
spare side with slight chances for areas generally east of Wharton
to Sealy to Huntsville line as the seabreeze develops this
afternoon. Warm aloft with 700-500mb ridging centered atop
Freeport with subsidence evident on satellite on the northwest
flank of the ridge...i.e. much of SETX. This should hamper the
development of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. By 6
pm expect any storms that may form to rapidly dissipate. Overnight
light winds, mostly clear to clear skies and balmy conditions.
45
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR through 09z with scattered CU. Isolated SHRA/TSRA possible
near the seabreeze in the vicinity of HOU/IAH/DWH/CXO. By 01z
expect these to have come to an end if not sooner. Patchy fog at
UTS/CXO/LBX toward morning and brief MVFR ceilings mainly north
near UTS/CXO. Guidance seems a little bullish with moisture return
Sunday and will introduce VCSH after 16-17z for IAH southward but
this may be overkill.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021/...
.LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday]
On Monday, a strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the
great basin will retreat N-NW and this will allow a strong short
wave rounding the top of the ridge to slide southward and aid in
carving out an upper level weakness in the base of an upper level
trough of low pressure that will extend from new England into the
Arklatex. Lowering 500 mb heights, PW values near 2.00 inches,
daytime heating and the sea breeze should set the stage for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase on
Tuesday as the weakness aloft evolves into a closed upper level
low, moisture levels stay high and a weak surface cold front will
move toward the northern edge of the CWA. The front looks like it
will stall near a KCLL to KDRK line but weak convergence along the
boundary will need to be watched for some potentially heavy rain.
More of the same on Wednesday as the upper low over East Texas
shifts very slowly west toward the central part of the state. The
front will become diffuse during the day and will be less of a
focus for heavy rain but the weakness aloft and PW values near
2.00 inches will continue to foster daytime showers and storms.
Upper level riding will develop over the eastern Gulf Wednesday
night and the ridge will expand into eastern Texas on Thursday.
The CWA will be caught between the expanding ridge and the
weakness over Central TX. 500 heights will build to between
592-594 DM. There will be some low/mid level moisture trapped
beneath the expanding ridge so can`t rule out additional shra/tsra
but the building heights portends slightly drier conditions. The
ridge expands further on Friday but a weak short wave on the
backside of a long wave trough that extends into Texas will give
the NE half of the region another chance for showers and storms.
The upper ridge over the Rockies then becomes the dominant weather
feature for next weekend. The ridge expands east and becomes
centered over the Texas panhandle by early next week. Warmer and
drier conditions expected next weekend into early next week. 43