We experienced 4 straight days of outflow boundaries and clouds. At least we got clouds out of the MCSs.
June 2023
Ensembles has potential rain through CLL over the next 2 days. The GFS and CMC are backing off.
We have a narrow window through Friday.
The Ensembles weaken the DR in early July.
The GFS even goes GoM trough building.
Anybody see the Euro >240 hours?
We have a narrow window through Friday.
The Ensembles weaken the DR in early July.
The GFS even goes GoM trough building.
Anybody see the Euro >240 hours?
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu yes the euro has a backdoor cold front pushing into the state
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4608
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 212047
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Despite this being the "short" term portion of the forecast, there`s
a lot of moving parts to this pattern through tomorrow night. As per
the ongoing showers/storms over N/C TX, disturbances embedded in the
flow aloft have been active, with this trend is expected to continue
into tonight. Near-term models remain rather bullish with the track/
passage of a strong short wave and its associated MCS from the NW to
SE across the CWA tonight. Current timing has this organized band of
showers and storms moving into our NW counties around midnight...and
then tracking to the coastline through sunrise. Did include mentions
of severe with these storms with gusty damaging winds as the primary
threat. Hail is also possible.
Otherwise, the other forecast issue of note is the ongoing hot weat-
her. Today`s combination of Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
will be changing over to just a Heat Advisory for tomorrow. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how worked over our airmass may
be (should we get the storms overnight) and if any additional devel-
opment will be possible with other short-waves. Of note, some models
are indicating another round of strong storms possible late tomorrow
afternoon/night with yet another short wave. Stay tuned.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Latest GEFS/ECMWF ensembles point at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms Friday morning into the early afternoon for areas east
and northeast of the Houston Metro. Maintained 20-30% PoP for Friday
morning as a ripple of energy aloft rotates around the main ridge.
The probabilities quickly plummet Friday afternoon as the ridge
strengthens across the area yet again...
Dangerous heat continues to be the main topic for the long-term
forecast, and that does not look likely to change. While it looks
like there will be a brief "cool off" in the short-term, with MaxT
just shy of triple digits, the ridge of high pressure will build
back into southeast TX this weekend and send daytime temperatures
rising to or above 100F. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues
to show a rebound with values around 0.9 for the weekend into next
week, indicating a stronger signal for higher end heat across the
area. Ensembles further reflect this potential with both GEFS/ECMWF
showing 80-90% chance of temperatures exceeding 100F for much of the
area.
With strong high pressure settled in, PoPs will remain less than 10%
through the middle of next week. CPC 6-10 day probabilities align
with this with a 50-60% of below normal precipitation predicted
during that time.
Little movement is expected with the ridge through the period.
Deterministic models show a tropical disturbance in the Pacific,
west of Mexico, that may nudge the ridge north and east around the
middle of next week ; however, not expecting that to provide much
relief to daytime temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Based on ongoing short-term model trends, have tweaked the TAFs to
include more of a mention of convection for tonight. Guidance con-
tinues to advertise the possibility of a large area of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the CWA from the NW to SE starting at/
near midnight...progressing to the coast after sunrise (and likely
weakening at this point). For the rest of this afternoon, look for
mostly VFR conditions with winds from the SW/S less than 10kts. By
tomorrow afternoon, there`s some uncertainty concerning how stable
(or unstable) the airmass here will be in the wake of the activity
overnight. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Generally southerly to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots
accompanied by seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the
weekend, and will likely continue into next week. Though primarily
focused over land, some low shower and thunderstorm chances will
re-enter the forecast late this afternoon and carry on through
Friday. Any rain chances on the waters will be to the east of
Freeport. Some thunderstorms tonight have the potential to become
strong to severe. Fair weather prevails by Friday night, and will
reign into the new week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 96 76 97 / 40 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 79 96 78 95 / 40 50 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 89 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-178-179-
200-214-235-236-300-335>337-439.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436-437.
High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 212047
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Despite this being the "short" term portion of the forecast, there`s
a lot of moving parts to this pattern through tomorrow night. As per
the ongoing showers/storms over N/C TX, disturbances embedded in the
flow aloft have been active, with this trend is expected to continue
into tonight. Near-term models remain rather bullish with the track/
passage of a strong short wave and its associated MCS from the NW to
SE across the CWA tonight. Current timing has this organized band of
showers and storms moving into our NW counties around midnight...and
then tracking to the coastline through sunrise. Did include mentions
of severe with these storms with gusty damaging winds as the primary
threat. Hail is also possible.
Otherwise, the other forecast issue of note is the ongoing hot weat-
her. Today`s combination of Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory
will be changing over to just a Heat Advisory for tomorrow. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding how worked over our airmass may
be (should we get the storms overnight) and if any additional devel-
opment will be possible with other short-waves. Of note, some models
are indicating another round of strong storms possible late tomorrow
afternoon/night with yet another short wave. Stay tuned.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Latest GEFS/ECMWF ensembles point at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms Friday morning into the early afternoon for areas east
and northeast of the Houston Metro. Maintained 20-30% PoP for Friday
morning as a ripple of energy aloft rotates around the main ridge.
The probabilities quickly plummet Friday afternoon as the ridge
strengthens across the area yet again...
Dangerous heat continues to be the main topic for the long-term
forecast, and that does not look likely to change. While it looks
like there will be a brief "cool off" in the short-term, with MaxT
just shy of triple digits, the ridge of high pressure will build
back into southeast TX this weekend and send daytime temperatures
rising to or above 100F. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues
to show a rebound with values around 0.9 for the weekend into next
week, indicating a stronger signal for higher end heat across the
area. Ensembles further reflect this potential with both GEFS/ECMWF
showing 80-90% chance of temperatures exceeding 100F for much of the
area.
With strong high pressure settled in, PoPs will remain less than 10%
through the middle of next week. CPC 6-10 day probabilities align
with this with a 50-60% of below normal precipitation predicted
during that time.
Little movement is expected with the ridge through the period.
Deterministic models show a tropical disturbance in the Pacific,
west of Mexico, that may nudge the ridge north and east around the
middle of next week ; however, not expecting that to provide much
relief to daytime temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Based on ongoing short-term model trends, have tweaked the TAFs to
include more of a mention of convection for tonight. Guidance con-
tinues to advertise the possibility of a large area of showers and
thunderstorms moving across the CWA from the NW to SE starting at/
near midnight...progressing to the coast after sunrise (and likely
weakening at this point). For the rest of this afternoon, look for
mostly VFR conditions with winds from the SW/S less than 10kts. By
tomorrow afternoon, there`s some uncertainty concerning how stable
(or unstable) the airmass here will be in the wake of the activity
overnight. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Generally southerly to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots
accompanied by seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the
weekend, and will likely continue into next week. Though primarily
focused over land, some low shower and thunderstorm chances will
re-enter the forecast late this afternoon and carry on through
Friday. Any rain chances on the waters will be to the east of
Freeport. Some thunderstorms tonight have the potential to become
strong to severe. Fair weather prevails by Friday night, and will
reign into the new week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 96 76 97 / 40 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 79 96 78 95 / 40 50 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 89 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-178-179-
200-214-235-236-300-335>337-439.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-237-238-313-338-438.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436-437.
High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Adams
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
It looks like around the 1-2nd is when the death ridge finally goes audios amigos according to the GFS, i do see light at the end of the tunnel, the death ridge will meet its demise!
Now thats a beautiful GFS RUN!
Now thats a beautiful GFS RUN!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 353
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT WED JUN 21 2023
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON AUSTIN BRAZOS
BURLESON FALLS FREESTONE
GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON
LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE
MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY
POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO
TRINITY WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
It appears that Lucy in the Sky has CLL split between 2 footballs. The eastern cell is heading down I-45 towards the Woodlands.
Another late afternoon of clouds and an outflow boundary. Better than blazing sun...
Another late afternoon of clouds and an outflow boundary. Better than blazing sun...
- Attachments
-
Most of that will weaken significantly as it gets towards us. For the majority of us, don’t get your hopes up.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
My money is on this going ka poof before reaching me
40-50 mph outflow as suspected. Not a drop yet, though. I was outside finishing getting a pile of dirt situated and preparing to reclaim a rose bed. The water main busted Monday evening. Could use come rain to flatten everything out. Good times!
Grimes Co. did receive some wetness.
- Attachments
-
-
The cells will probably hit the wall near I-10...
Heavy rain in Montgomery county moving into Harris County.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4332
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Well what do you know, the cells actually held together, surprising
Pretty heavy business in the Woodlands.
Wind is crazy, lights flickering.
Wind is crazy, lights flickering.
- hgzzx.png (11.49 KiB) Viewed 701 times
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC015-157-201-339-473-220230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0139.230622T0135Z-230622T0230Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
835 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Eastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 930 PM CDT.
* At 834 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Splendora to San Felipe, moving southeast at
55 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Bellaire, Humble, Katy, Tomball, Jersey Village, Sealy, Hempstead,
Prairie View, Brookshire, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill
Village, Piney Point Village, Pinehurst, Downtown Houston, Greenway
/ Upper Kirby Area, Kingwood, Spring Branch North, The Woodlands,
Greater Greenspoint and Spring.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Well at least some of y’all are getting something.
Power out.
Green lightning.
Truly one of the worst storms I’ve experienced.
Green lightning.
Truly one of the worst storms I’ve experienced.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 946
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Worst windstorm I have seen since hurricane Ike for sure. No power 1960 45 area
Oh my gosh I think it’s going to rain here. Probably get a trace or quarter inch at best but I’ll take it!
Winds are intense right now,so far power is still on just some flickering.