November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Arctic Boundary through Guyman, OK now...also San Antonio and Brownsville set new record highs today. College Station tied a 1910 record with 84...

Current Weather Conditions:
GUYMON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, OK, United States
(KGUY) 36-41N 101-30W 948M

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Conditions at Nov 24, 2010 - 07:02 PM ESTNov 24, 2010 - 06:02 PM CSTNov 24, 2010 - 05:02 PM MSTNov 24, 2010 - 04:02 PM PSTNov 24, 2010 - 03:02 PM ASTNov 24, 2010 - 02:02 PM HST
2010.11.25 0002 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 30 MPH (26 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions clear
Temperature 42 F (6 C)
Dew Point 24 F (-4 C)
Relative Humidity 48%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.67 in. Hg (1004 hPa)
ob KGUY 250002Z AUTO 04019G26KT 10SM CLR 06/M04 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/0002 WSHFT 2342

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Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
Maximum
Temperature
F (C) Minimum
Temperature
F (C)
69.1 (20.6) 43.0 (6.1) In the 6 hours preceding Nov 24, 2010 - 06:53 PM EST / 2010.11.24 2353 UTC
64.0 (17.8) 16.0 (-8.9) In the 24 hours preceding Nov 24, 2010 - 12:53 AM EST / 2010.11.24 0553 UTC

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Code: Select all

24 Hour Summary   
 Time
EST (UTC)  Temperature
F (C)  Dew Point
F (C)  Pressure
Inches (hPa)  Wind
MPH  Weather 
Latest 7 PM (0) Nov 24 42 (6) 24 (-4) 29.67 (1004) NE 22  
 6 PM (23) Nov 24 63.0 (17.2) 3.0 (-16.1) 29.59 (1002) WSW 16 

[helloitsb]

Could this thing get here earlier than we are expecting? Seems to be moving pretty fast.

[Kludge]

Extrapolating the current speed, I would expect it to pass CLL by 2:00 PM tomorrow. Unless it does a major slowdown.

What I'm also watching closely for is the orientation of the front as it approaches. If it's NE to SW, then a line of showers might pass quickly through with little accumulations.

But if it's more E to W, there's a chance for more training, and hopefully at least a half-inch plus.

Many parts of central Texas are still WAY behind in rainfall this year...and could use a few downpours.

[srainhoutx]

Models had 'hinted' at a spill into the Panhandle. The 00Z surface charts suggest the plunge will be a bit further E into N Central TX as well, for what it's worth.

[Mr. T]

Could this thing get here earlier than we are expecting? Seems to be moving pretty fast.

The Dallas office as well as Oklahoma City has noted the faster than predicted speed of the cold front than what models are currently showing. This was to be expected, of course...

[helloitsb]

Could this thing get here earlier than we are expecting? Seems to be moving pretty fast.

The Dallas office as well as Oklahoma City has noted the faster than predicted speed of the cold front than what models are currently showing. This was to be expected, of course...

Yes, it has been stated many times that these fronts were unpredictable, I hope it comes in earlier what kind of Thanksgiving is a warm one

[srainhoutx]

Radar data suggests the front is nearing Canadian and heading S at a decent clip now...

[Kludge]

Radar data suggests the front is nearing Canadian and heading S at a decent clip now...

...And the orientation seems decidedly ENE to WSW, and with it beginnig to bang into the current dewpoints, I'm hoping the predicted rainfall accumulations fall short of what actually occurs. A few unexpected 1"+ amounts would be nice.

[Andrew]

Its coming:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[srainhoutx]

IR Imagery suggests a robust storm developing in the Northern Rockies. Cyclogenesis well underway and a moisture feed from the Eastern Pacific as well...

[srainhoutx]

0130Z issue...

11252010 0130 Surface Analysis namussfcwbg.gif

[Kludge]

From what I've been seeing/hearing, this cyclogenis along the long wave was not expected. If it's happening, woulldn't it both slow our frontal passage but potentially make it more intense, storm-wise?

[srainhoutx]

From what I've been seeing/hearing, this cyclogenis along the long wave was not expected. If it's happening, woulldn't it both slow our frontal passage but potentially make it more intense, storm-wise?

There were hints of a 'double barrel' low setup a few days ago. I do see the front is through Pampa. Amarillo has gone calm. Some 'colder' air is lagging behind the main front, but is dropping S and gaining on the boundary. We'll see how it plays out. These blue northers can throw a wrinkle or two our way in TX.

02Z RUC...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

FROPA in Amarillo.

[wxman57]

I was just comparing 12Z GFS meteograms for northern OK cities and the front is a few hours faster than the GFS was forecasting this morning. It will probably arrive here tomorrow afternoon. Maybe closer to 2-3pm vs. 6pm, though. Will have a better feel for the timing in the morning.

[srainhoutx]

Robust Upper Air disturbance rotating beneath the trough to our W in AZ/NM...

[biggerbyte]

It is raining at my house here in Porter. Very light, but there none the less.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving! The front is through the Metroplex, Brownwood, to San Angelo and heading S at this time. The temp drops look to be in the 15 to 20 degree range behind the boundary. It appears we'll have some post frontal moisture as well with a robust shortwave currently over NM and still digging SE along the base of the trough. It will be interesting to see if the front remains on schedule for a late afternoon/early evening arrival across SE TX. Also, HGX is mentioning a wide spread freeze for Saturday morning and Freeze Warnings are being mentioned as a strong possibility. The rollercoaster ride will continue regarding temps as we warm up starting Sunday to only take a tumble again on Monday in the progressive flow pattern.

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
TODAY...WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING
FROM NM/TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTH TX INTO AR/MO/IL AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG.

...TX/LA/AR/MS...
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX/LA/AR/MS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS LIT.
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS AND YIELD MLCAPE VALUES 500-750 J/KG. ANA-FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LATER TODAY SUGGEST THAT
BULK OF STORMS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRIMARILY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN OCCUR...A FEW STORMS COULD FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL WARRANT A
SLIGHT RISK...SO HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS.

[Portastorm]

Winds have shifted to north here in Austin ... visibility down to near zero in heavy snow. (OK, just kidding! )

Seriously, looks like Wxman57's comment last night about the front looking a few hours ahead of schedule is playing out. Wouldn't be surprised to see fropa here in AUS by 12 noon. The NWS forecast is for fropa early afternoon.

Gonna be a chilly one tonight at DKR. Good football weather!