May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

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Rip76
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I'm going to go ahead and wash my car, being south of I-10.

Man, those radar trends don't look good for the areas that were hit yesterday.
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Seeing a good amount of breaks in the clouds and some towering cumulus already. Atmosphere is starting to recover.
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Looking at the latest HRRR and RAP guidance is a bit worrisome particularly along the boundary. Temps have warmed quickly to 79 here in NW Harris County and inflow off the Gulf is increasing. Need to monitor for the potential of heavy rainfall rates from La Grange on East...again today.
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Fingers crossed the 15Z HRRR is way over doing the rainfall amounts for the next 6-9 hours.
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05272016 15Z HRRR qpf_acc_us_sc.png
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houstonia
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I noticed that the southwest quadrant of Houston remained mostly rain-free until about 4 or 5 AM when it really poured. I am wondering if we will continue that trend? Also - I am wondering exactly why the line ends at I-10 - is that where the boundary to all of this mess is?

There WAS a lot of lightning last night while I was driving home though - I imagine this was the outflow?

Any thoughts?

thank you!
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houstonia wrote:I noticed that the southwest quadrant of Houston remained mostly rain-free until about 4 or 5 AM when it really poured. I am wondering if we will continue that trend? Also - I am wondering exactly why the line ends at I-10 - is that where the boundary to all of this mess is?

There WAS a lot of lightning last night while I was driving home though - I imagine this was the outflow?

Any thoughts?

thank you!

Good morning Houstonia. Here is where the boundary lies according to NWS Austin/San Antonio:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
A surface boundary from ongoing showers and thunderstorms has
pushed to the south across Central Texas, extending along a Llano
to Kyle to Brenham line.
Showers are increasing along this
boundary. The airmass has cooled slightly northeast of this
boundary with continued warming south of it. Moisture convergence
is strengthening and with solar heating, expect upscale growth in
thunderstorms with heavy rains. Have boosted POPs and QPF in this
area. The additional rain will aggravate ongoing flooding. Have
lowered high temperatures a little north of the boundary with no
change elsewhere. Remainder of South Central Texas forecast is on
track.
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05272016 16Z E TX VIS latest.jpg
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srainhoutx wrote:Looking at the latest HRRR and RAP guidance is a bit worrisome particularly along the boundary. Temps have warmed quickly to 79 here in NW Harris County and inflow off the Gulf is increasing. Need to monitor for the potential of heavy rainfall rates from La Grange on East...again today.

Yeah, NW Harris and even Houston are not out of the woods yet.
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Here we go again Neighbors. Stay safe out there...
05272016 mcd0249.gif
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0249
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED......EAST TEXAS...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 271629Z - 272029Z

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO AN AREA THAT HAD RECEIVED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS OVERNIGHT... SSW LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW BETWEEN 30-35 KTS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IN EAST
TEXAS. WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT IS NOW A
DISCRETE STATIONARY DRAPED WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THE 80S FARTHER
SOUTH. PER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY IS FEEDING
INTO THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG NOTED WITH AN INCREASE OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE
PAST 3 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE RICH WITH
MOISTURE...WITH THE PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES AROUND 2-2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE... IN PARTICULAR THE
HRRR...PARALLEL HRRR... EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...AND 12Z
NSSL-WRF...ALL SHOW THE STRONGER CORES PRODUCING 3 TO AS MUCH AS 8
INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY AS THE CONVECTION EXPANDS SOUTHWARD INTO AN
AREA WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOILS AND LOW FFG.

HURLEY

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...
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houstonia
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Thank you Srain - Stay dry!
srainhoutx wrote: Good morning Houstonia. Here is where the boundary lies according to NWS Austin/San Antonio:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
A surface boundary from ongoing showers and thunderstorms has
pushed to the south across Central Texas, extending along a Llano
to Kyle to Brenham line.
Showers are increasing along this
boundary. The airmass has cooled slightly northeast of this
boundary with continued warming south of it. Moisture convergence
is strengthening and with solar heating, expect upscale growth in
thunderstorms with heavy rains. Have boosted POPs and QPF in this
area. The additional rain will aggravate ongoing flooding. Have
lowered high temperatures a little north of the boundary with no
change elsewhere. Remainder of South Central Texas forecast is on
track.
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Radar trends not looking good for last night's hard hit areas. Strong gusting winds ongoing down here in Galveston County with rapidly moving scuds as the moisture continues to flow into SE TX. I hope everyone remains weather aware today and "turn around don't drown" should flooded roadways be encountered.
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Andrew
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Satellite shows some nice agitated cu to the south of I-10 and some towering cumulus with the storms currently north of I-10. Also seeing some colder cloud tops over the eastern section of the storms. Slowing down too.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1150 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT

* AT 1149 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR OVER PREVIOUSLY FLOODED AREAS. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NAVASOTA...BEDIAS...ANDERSON...CARLOS...ROANS PRAIRIE AND
RICHARDS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
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NWS Austin/San Antonio extends Flash Flood Warning for Bastrop, Caldwell, Fayette, Lee, Hays, & Travis Counties in Central Texas until at least 3:00 to 3:15 PM this afternoon.
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unome
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1206 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis late this morning had a stalled front draped E/W across SE Texas with weak surface low pressure over the Hill Country. Strong inflow was noted with 30-35kt southerly winds on the KHGX VAD wind profile. Elevated storms have formed behind the frontal boundary as deep moisture continues to stream northward riding over the boundary. Convective trends have been for more activity to develop and with daytime heating, there could be isolated strong/severe storm that produces heavy rainfall. It is challenging to pinpoint the evolution of this convection since it is not well organized. HRRR has had a tough time resolving convection and depicting its evolution as a result. Given the moist inflow normal to the boundary and favorable jet structure, there is no reason to think that more convection will not develop. Moderate ML CAPE exists south of the boundary so again more reason to support convection with severe/heavy rain threat. Tried to updated the forecast with these thoughts which was to increase thunderstorm chances again. The next 6-9 hours will need to be watch carefully for deep convection.

Overpeck


high res surface analysis, zoomable: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfc-zoom.php

from: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=brief_support , where you can see everything "at a glance"

Image
Last edited by unome on Fri May 27, 2016 12:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Beginning to see a distinctive 'V' shaped signature and back building thunderstorms toward Bastrop/La Grange via visible imagery. Inflow is steadily increasing and with some breaks in the clouds S of the boundary, the atmosphere is becoming increasingly very unstable. Look for another Mesoscale Convective System to organize and grow throughout the afternoon. Will need to closely monitor the severe threat as well. Any training thunderstorms will be capable of dropping 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates.
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05272016 TX VIS 17Z latest.jpg
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-
HOUSTON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANAHUAC...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...
BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...
COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...
DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EL CAMPO...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIBERTY...
LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...
NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PASADENA...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT ...
BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAVE TRAINED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SINCE THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR HAVE AVERAGED
FROM 10 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE. HARDEST HIT COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
WASHINGTON... BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES AND MONTGOMERY.

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND WILL
PRODUCE MORE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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mcheer23
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Will this action stay north of I-10
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Don't know if we'll get any rain, but we are getting some very strong wind around Sugar Land!
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mcheer23 wrote:Will this action stay north of I-10
I don't know, but I hope so - residents of Meyerland, Westbury, Sharpstown, etc., don't need a repeat of last year. :|
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mcheer23 wrote:Will this action stay north of I-10
Likely not. Does look like the highest totals may stay North of the 10, but severe weather is possible almost everywhere.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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