Long range model discussion

[sambucol]

The EPS 12z has about 10-15 of the 50 members showing snow in houston around the 4th lol fwiw, dont know why i cant post a pic on here

Has this been a trend in the last few runs?

[Stratton20]

sambucol its been showing up for the past several days, especially on the EPS

[tireman4]

The EPS 12z has about 10-15 of the 50 members showing snow in houston around the 4th lol fwiw, dont know why i cant post a pic on here

I will send another email to Andrew

[Ptarmigan]

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... cillation/

Interesting read.

Judah Cohen has a Twitter account and has a forecast for polar vortex to be over the Lower 48 by early January 2024.
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1739755322594455991

Judah Cohen
@judah47
I go out on a long but thin limb trying to predict the many machinations of the #PolarVortex, SSW or not, split or displacement? Adding to the degree of difficulty I try to predict the impact on US, Europe & Asia weather. Blog now available for early look: https://atmospheric-and-environmental-r ... early-look

[sambucol]

sambucol its been showing up for the past several days, especially on the EPS

Sounds like a trend.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t get your hopes up yet. Seen this fail one too many times and plus srain usually warns us if he sees anything on the horizon for us.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 im not, but the pattern is pretty favorable for at least a chance at some wintry mischief, i dont see any too crazy, well until we see what happens with that SSWE which now looks to be a legit thing

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 im not, but the pattern is pretty favorable for at least a chance at some wintry mischief, i dont see any too crazy, well until we see what happens with that SSWE which now looks to be a legit thing

It would make me feel a lot better once srain chimes in. I trust him more than anyone.

[Stratton20]

POW has put out the polar vortex watch for january lol, we got a lot to watch

[Cpv17]

My goodness, the 18z GFS just took about 20 shots of whiskey.

[brazoriatx]

Doesn't t affect us tho it's all north texas

[sambucol]

My goodness, the 18z GFS just took about 20 shots of whiskey.

Please share what it’s showing. Thanks.

[Cpv17]

Doesn't t affect us tho it's all north texas

Yeah, but the further south the snowpack can get, it will allow for less modification of the air when fronts come through. So it can still possibly have some affect on us if you look at it that way.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 id rather have these next couple of systems just help to add to a record low snowpack, its crazy how snow starved most of the us is with snow, I want a couple of systems to help build that up again so any arctic air that comes down here wont moderate so quickly

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 id rather have these next couple of systems just help to add to a record low snowpack, its crazy how snow starved most of the us is with snow, I want a couple of systems to help build that up again so any arctic air that comes down here wont moderate so quickly

What’s hard for me to believe is what Pow Ponder said on his video today. I think he said NYC has gone almost two years without a one inch or more snow event. That’s nuts to me lol

[Harp1]

SSW is forecast to occur around January 6th. Affects will be felt two weeks later. Will it be Europe or N. America? Definitely something to keep tabs on. Thoughts?

[Cpv17]

SSW is forecast to occur around January 6th. Affects will be felt two weeks later. Will it be Europe or N. America? Definitely something to keep tabs on. Thoughts?

Could set up a cold late January into February period. I think I’d prefer a split of the PV rather than a stretching event but both could suffice.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just about all of the ensembles show it coming to North America and some with the PV entering the lower 48.

I’m pretty close to calling January a well below average month. Give me until the 1st and I’ll make my bet.

[Cpv17]

Finally it looks like the ensembles are seeing some cold build up in our source region.

[sambucol]

Source region being?