January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[wxman57]

By the way, another radar-indicated tornado heading toward Alvin. It's currently just ESE of Needville. League City is also in its path down the road.

Oh, and approaching 6" at my house in Westbury now. (just south of Meyerland)

[Ptarmigan]

12Z GFS indicating cold rain next Saturday again. Light freeze Friday. Canadian & Euro (Euro in particular) have been considerably drier with the next event. Here's a meteogram based on the 12Z GFS.

Looks like another possible heavy rain this weekend. Hopefully, not like today's rain.

[tireman4]

Low 40s with moderate to heavy rain is perfect weather? I wouldn't even go outside in that weather much less run 26 miles in it.

Yes sir. You will see great running times.

[srainhoutx]

By the way, another radar-indicated tornado heading toward Alvin. It's currently just ESE of Needville. League City is also in its path down the road.

Oh, and approaching 6" at my house in Westbury now. (just south of Meyerland)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1111 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL NOON CST

* AT 1107 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ROSHARON...JULIFF...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...IOWA COLONY AND BONNEY.

[srainhoutx]

About 1.5 inches up here, but it is thundering again.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Harris, & Galveston Counties.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Brazoria, Ft Bend, Harris, & Galveston Counties.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CST MON JAN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST

* AT 1121 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
EAST OF BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANVEL...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO WEBSTER...SANTA FE...NASSAU BAY...LEAGUE CITY...HOLIDAY
LAKES...HITCHCOCK...FRIENDSWOOD...DICKINSON...DANBURY...CLEAR LAKE
SHORES AND ALVIN.

[svrwx0503]

Heavy rain threat shifting south into our coastal counties with isolated tornado threat continuing. The latest mesoanalysis indicates low level helicity really picking up over the last hour across southern parts of the region in response to some backing of the surface wind field at Angelton and Galveston. Latest regional observations indicate a surface low might be trying to form just south of Victoria which will be monitored closely as it could act to enhance the tornado threat over the next 2 hours or so across Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston counties.

As far as the flooding threat, the latest IR imagery indicates rapidly cooling cloud tops associated with the severe thunderstorm over northern Brazoria county. PW's are currently sitting around 2 standard deviations above normal so rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour with some locations seeing some short term rates approaching 4-5 inches per hour will continue to be possible across our coastal counties over the next few hours. Areas of light to moderate rain will continue behind the main line across the Houston metro area through the afternoon.

[Ounce]

Low 40s with moderate to heavy rain is perfect weather? I wouldn't even go outside in that weather much less run 26 miles in it.

Yes sir. You will see great running times.

I quite probably am mistaken, but was it Srain that noted the GFS' ability to predict rain 6 days out was highly suspect? And it looks like the rain on Saturday will mostly be in the afternoon, long after the Trials are over.

For Sunday, I'll be interested to know what the wind speed and direction would be, but I can wait until Friday or Saturday to determine how many layers I will wear.

[djmike]

Lightning and thundering big time here in Beaumont/Sabine Pass area! Rains just started! Hope we get as much as you guys did in Houston! I'm ready for the ride!

[srainhoutx]

A 'teaser' post regarding the weekend...I'll add that the HPC has little confidence due to run to run changes by the operational NAM, GFS, Canadian & UKMet...They are waiting to see what the 12Z Euro and ensembles offer...little confidence with the northern stream storm/trough as well...

[wxman57]

Brays Bayou is ALMOST out of its banks at the med center. Here's a shot from the webcam pointing toward the Ben Taub entrance. That's as high as I've seen it since Allison.

http://fas3.flood-alert.org/#Cameras:Large%20Scale

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Warning for Harris County until further notice

[sambucol]

Just heard on TV that the Med Center is implementing its flood plan.

[Ptarmigan]

This flood event kinda reminds me of the January 18, 1989 flood event. This rain event is probably the heaviest January rain event since 1989.

[niner21]

It's tapered off here in Montgomery. Was nuts last night and this morning. I drove to my jobs and saw FULL ponds that were damn near empty just 10 hours ago!! Also, I think Lake Conroe will benefit a bit from this but not as much as we'd like. Has to rain more north (like national forest area) for the lake to see a lot of filling.

Got some cell phone video of some pastures that looked like the colorado river!!

[niner21]

wow, what a drought buster.....

You should have driven down FM 2854 this morning. Looked like the Mighty Mississippi.

[srainhoutx]

It's tapered off here in Montgomery. Was nuts last night and this morning. I drove to my jobs and saw FULL ponds that were damn near empty just 10 hours ago!! Also, I think Lake Conroe will benefit a bit from this but not as much as we'd like. Has to rain more north (like national forest area) for the lake to see a lot of filling.

Got some cell phone video of some pastures that looked like the colorado river!!

Did you do the work that you were concerned about yesterday morning?

[ticka1]

Will the rain that is up north move south or will it miss us and head east?

What is the forecast for the rest of the evening as far as rain?

[niner21]

It's tapered off here in Montgomery. Was nuts last night and this morning. I drove to my jobs and saw FULL ponds that were damn near empty just 10 hours ago!! Also, I think Lake Conroe will benefit a bit from this but not as much as we'd like. Has to rain more north (like national forest area) for the lake to see a lot of filling.

Got some cell phone video of some pastures that looked like the colorado river!!

Did you do the work that you were concerned about yesterday morning?

Yeah, I forced myself to go to work on Sunday early and knock out the grading jobs (not perfect but good enough) on the 2 houses I had at that "stage." You guys called it, and it will save me about 4-5 days of waiting till the mud dries out. Sure I've got some small washout spots and channels in the new sand/ soil I put down but it's at least draining and should dry out 2-3 times faster than if I left ruts and clods of clay around like it was before.

Good call people!!