NCEP Operational Status Message
Sun Dec 23 15:01:00 2012 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 231500
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1457Z SUN DEC 23 2012
THE 12Z NAM COMPLETED ON TIME. THE GFS STARTED ON TIME
WITH 31 CANADIAN...9 MEXICAN AND 10 CARIBBEAN STATIONS AVBL
FOR INGEST.
12Z GFS RAOB RECAP...
78486/SDQ - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATIC.
72240/LCH - DELETED TEMPS/HEIGHTS/MOISTURE 745-735 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD...NON-METEOROLOGICAL LAPSE
RATES...WET BULB EFFECT.
91376/MAJ - DELETED TEMPS/HEIGHTS/MOISTURE 815-705 MB...
TEMPS TOO COLD...NON-METEOROLOGICAL LAPSE
RATES...WET BULB EFFECT.
70261/FAI - 10142
72786/OTX - 10142
91413/YAP - 10142
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CWD BEGINNING 12Z TUE 12/25
THROUGH 12Z FRI 12/28 AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN REGIONS.
December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead
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srainhoutx
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Portastorm
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EWX in its morning forecast discussion referenced an early Christmas morning squall line with possible severe weather. It appears we may be dealing with "fun"derstorms prior to checking our stockings to see what Santa brought.
Here is a relevant snippet from that AFD:
THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE HWO.
Here is a relevant snippet from that AFD:
THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE NERN THIRD OF THE CWA. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND DESTABILIZING AIRMASS COULD RESULT IN A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE HWO.
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srainhoutx
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E-mail from Jeff:
Powerful upper level storm system will bring widespread impacts to TX Christmas Morning.
Next upper level storm system to affect the state is currently diving down into the western US this morning and will begin to move eastward into TX tomorrow. At the surface low level warm air and moisture advection is underway across the state while to our north a shallow cold front is moving southward. Expect this shallow boundary to reach the area tonight and then stall between I-10 and the coast on Monday. Much more powerful system to be approaching from the west Monday night/ Tuesday AM. Southerly winds will continue to pump moisture into the area today into Monday even as the weak boundary stalls. Not expecting much rainfall in the warm air advection pattern with moisture mainly below 800mb.
Surface boundary begins to lift northward as a warm from late Monday as strong upper level system moves into TX. Do not think the warm front will move rapidly northward with developing rainfall north of the boundary helping to roughly maintain its position in the I-10 to HWY 105 corridor into Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure developing over EC TX early Tuesday will bring a punch of dry air eastward out of central TX in the form of a dry line. Powerful mid level jet will rotate through the base of the trough over the state with shear values on the order of 60kts and building instability in the warm sector south of the warm front between midnight and 1000am Tuesday. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop after midnight to 300am Tuesday some of which will become severe.
A review of severe weather parameters for early Tuesday morning suggest a highly sheared low level environment with low level winds backed to the SE to ESE near the warm front veering to WSW in the mid levels. Both speed and directional shear will be in place over the area and expect storms that develop near and south of the warm front will have a tornado potential. There is some possibility that storms will go into a line along the advancing dry line during the morning hours with a damaging wind threat. We are still about 40-48 hours from the event and some fine tuning is likely on the warm frontal position and where the greatest severe threat will be found on Tuesday morning.
Note: Such strong storm systems in the winter time in the deep south and after dark can have some significant severe weather and tornadoes. Such tornadoes tend to occur in the early morning hours and result in higher fatalities than spring time tornadoes mainly because they occur when residents are asleep.
Dry line will punch rapidly through the area by noon on Tuesday with a quick drying of the air mass. Strong cold front will lag behind the dry line and cross the area in the late afternoon. Very strong winds will onset once again behind this boundary…although not likely as strong as last Thursday…still could see a few gust to 40mph. Temperatures will tumble from the 60’s/70’s prior to the front quickly into the 40’s behind the front. A band of snow will likely develop over N TX within the comma head portion of the upper level storm system. Some accumulation of snow will be possible from the DFW area NE into OK and AR on Christmas Evening and night. No snow is expected across SE TX as moisture will be scoured out of the area prior to the thermal column being cold enough for snow.
Strong winds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning should keep lows mainly near freezing north of US 59. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 degrees under continued cold air advection. Surface high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. With very low dewpoints (in the 20’s) should see a widespread freeze for all areas except the immediate coast. Even the urban heat areas may see a light freeze this time around. Colder locations could see lows in the mid 20’s for Thursday morning.
Powerful upper level storm system will bring widespread impacts to TX Christmas Morning.
Next upper level storm system to affect the state is currently diving down into the western US this morning and will begin to move eastward into TX tomorrow. At the surface low level warm air and moisture advection is underway across the state while to our north a shallow cold front is moving southward. Expect this shallow boundary to reach the area tonight and then stall between I-10 and the coast on Monday. Much more powerful system to be approaching from the west Monday night/ Tuesday AM. Southerly winds will continue to pump moisture into the area today into Monday even as the weak boundary stalls. Not expecting much rainfall in the warm air advection pattern with moisture mainly below 800mb.
Surface boundary begins to lift northward as a warm from late Monday as strong upper level system moves into TX. Do not think the warm front will move rapidly northward with developing rainfall north of the boundary helping to roughly maintain its position in the I-10 to HWY 105 corridor into Tuesday morning. Surface low pressure developing over EC TX early Tuesday will bring a punch of dry air eastward out of central TX in the form of a dry line. Powerful mid level jet will rotate through the base of the trough over the state with shear values on the order of 60kts and building instability in the warm sector south of the warm front between midnight and 1000am Tuesday. Expect numerous thunderstorms to develop after midnight to 300am Tuesday some of which will become severe.
A review of severe weather parameters for early Tuesday morning suggest a highly sheared low level environment with low level winds backed to the SE to ESE near the warm front veering to WSW in the mid levels. Both speed and directional shear will be in place over the area and expect storms that develop near and south of the warm front will have a tornado potential. There is some possibility that storms will go into a line along the advancing dry line during the morning hours with a damaging wind threat. We are still about 40-48 hours from the event and some fine tuning is likely on the warm frontal position and where the greatest severe threat will be found on Tuesday morning.
Note: Such strong storm systems in the winter time in the deep south and after dark can have some significant severe weather and tornadoes. Such tornadoes tend to occur in the early morning hours and result in higher fatalities than spring time tornadoes mainly because they occur when residents are asleep.
Dry line will punch rapidly through the area by noon on Tuesday with a quick drying of the air mass. Strong cold front will lag behind the dry line and cross the area in the late afternoon. Very strong winds will onset once again behind this boundary…although not likely as strong as last Thursday…still could see a few gust to 40mph. Temperatures will tumble from the 60’s/70’s prior to the front quickly into the 40’s behind the front. A band of snow will likely develop over N TX within the comma head portion of the upper level storm system. Some accumulation of snow will be possible from the DFW area NE into OK and AR on Christmas Evening and night. No snow is expected across SE TX as moisture will be scoured out of the area prior to the thermal column being cold enough for snow.
Strong winds Tuesday night and Wednesday morning should keep lows mainly near freezing north of US 59. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 degrees under continued cold air advection. Surface high pressure will build over the area Wednesday night with mainly clear skies and light winds. With very low dewpoints (in the 20’s) should see a widespread freeze for all areas except the immediate coast. Even the urban heat areas may see a light freeze this time around. Colder locations could see lows in the mid 20’s for Thursday morning.
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srainhoutx
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE ERN ATLANTIC...A SECOND TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC
NW/GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EMERGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AS THIS FEATURE DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED --
INITIALLY OVER THE SERN CO VICINITY. THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD...REACHING N TX BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS COLD AIR DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CHRISTMAS DAY WINTRY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS -- AND
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT AREAS OF LA.
...E TX INTO LA...
WHILE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE
AFTER DARK...AND FARTHER TO THE W.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NWD
WILL RESULT IN A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. AS WARM ADVECTION/QG
ASCENT INCREASES...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS VEERING WINDS/SHEAR
INCREASES TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION. THE PRIMARY THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE. WHILE
SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE SABINE RIVER LATE...THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER E TX FROM MID EVENING ONWARD.
..GOSS.. 12/23/2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN U.S. AND EVENTUALLY
MOVES INTO THE ERN ATLANTIC...A SECOND TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC
NW/GREAT BASIN IS FORECAST TO DIG/AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND EMERGE INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AS THIS FEATURE DIGS SEWD...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED --
INITIALLY OVER THE SERN CO VICINITY. THROUGH LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD...REACHING N TX BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS COLD AIR DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CHRISTMAS DAY WINTRY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS -- AND
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF E TX AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT AREAS OF LA.
...E TX INTO LA...
WHILE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL EVOLVE
AFTER DARK...AND FARTHER TO THE W.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NWD
WILL RESULT IN A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. AS WARM ADVECTION/QG
ASCENT INCREASES...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE AS VEERING WINDS/SHEAR
INCREASES TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION. THE PRIMARY THREAT
APPEARS TO BE HAIL...THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW LATE. WHILE
SOME SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SPREAD E OF THE SABINE RIVER LATE...THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER E TX FROM MID EVENING ONWARD.
..GOSS.. 12/23/2012
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS Ensembles have trended a tad more in line with what the Euro/Ukmet solution has been suggesting. It appears cyclogenesis will begin as the 5H trough/upper low slows down over NE New Mexico and wraps up going neutral/negative tilted as the low crosses Texas into NW Louisiana/Southern Arkansas
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Ukmet holds the southern solution...
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srainhoutx
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HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion for the 12Z suite of guidance:
...SHRTWV ENERGY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
MON...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUE AND LIFTING TWD THE OH VLY
WED...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE NAM AND 09Z SREF ARE ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD TUE AND
WED REGARDING THE FCST CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW MOVING NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT ARE BY NO MEANS OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM /
SFC LOW. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS 2 RUNS...AND IS CLOSER TO ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN...HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE 12Z GEFS /
09Z SREF MEAN CLUSTER ON WED.
GIVEN OVERALL RECENT TRENDS...THE RECOMMENDATION WILL NOW INCLUDE
THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 12Z GFS...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z EC
MEAN. DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS FAR NW AS THE
NAM/SREF...BUT ONE MUST GIVE RESPECT TO THE NRN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
CONTRAST TO THE SRN UKMET/CMC SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN...BUT THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREFERENCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW.
...SHRTWV ENERGY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
MON...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUE AND LIFTING TWD THE OH VLY
WED...
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE NAM AND 09Z SREF ARE ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD TUE AND
WED REGARDING THE FCST CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW MOVING NEWD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT ARE BY NO MEANS OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM /
SFC LOW. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS 2 RUNS...AND IS CLOSER TO ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN...HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE 12Z GEFS /
09Z SREF MEAN CLUSTER ON WED.
GIVEN OVERALL RECENT TRENDS...THE RECOMMENDATION WILL NOW INCLUDE
THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 12Z GFS...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z EC
MEAN. DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS FAR NW AS THE
NAM/SREF...BUT ONE MUST GIVE RESPECT TO THE NRN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
CONTRAST TO THE SRN UKMET/CMC SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS COMPARED TO ITS 00Z
RUN...BUT THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREFERENCE
WITH THE UPPER LOW.
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srainhoutx
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
OKZ004>031-033>038-241100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0001.121225T0600Z-121226T0600Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON
233 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM CST ON
TUESDAY AND BE HEAVIEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
OCCUR AS WELL DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-065-066-068>076-241100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0001.121225T1800Z-121226T0600Z/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-
CHOCTAW-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
302 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH...CHOCTAW...CHEROKEE...
ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...OKMULGEE...
PUSHMATAHA...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...
WASHINGTON...SEBASTIAN...CARROLL...MADISON... FRANKLIN AND
CRAWFORD.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST OK ON INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
* UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-145-146-241100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-HILL-NAVARRO-
301 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 25TH...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT...PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...TO EMORY LINE. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE PARIS AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...COLD ARCTIC AIR AND VERY STRONG WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THAT MAY RESULT IN DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
ALSO...THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY THE EVENING
HOURS...AND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
REFREEZING OF ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS...POWER LINES...AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES.
EXPECT IMPACTS AND TRAVEL TO BE DISRUPTED DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. THE
STRONG WINDS...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION...AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD BRING DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE RED RIVER WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER. TRAVEL NEAR
THE RED RIVER MAY ALSO BE DIFFICULT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM BLOWING SNOW AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ANY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WOULD INCREASE AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WOULD ALSO
SHIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
BOTTOM LINE...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...TO EMORY LINE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE FORECAST MAY
CHANGE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
233 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
OKZ004>031-033>038-241100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.A.0001.121225T0600Z-121226T0600Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...
CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...
HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...FREDERICK...LAWTON
233 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
* TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM CST ON
TUESDAY AND BE HEAVIEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TO FLURRIES TUESDAY EVENING. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
OCCUR AS WELL DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
STRONG NORTH WINDS.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACTS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
2 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
ARZ002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053-065-066-068>076-241100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0001.121225T1800Z-121226T0600Z/
CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-PUSHMATAHA-
CHOCTAW-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-
PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-LE FLORE-
302 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...MUSKOGEE...MCINTOSH...CHOCTAW...CHEROKEE...
ADAIR...OKFUSKEE...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...OKMULGEE...
PUSHMATAHA...LE FLORE...LATIMER AND HASKELL. IN ARKANSAS...
WASHINGTON...SEBASTIAN...CARROLL...MADISON... FRANKLIN AND
CRAWFORD.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP FROM SOUTHEAST OK ON INTO WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
* UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-145-146-241100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-HILL-NAVARRO-
301 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 25TH...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEGINNING
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR...THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW
WILL BE LIGHT...PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...TO EMORY LINE. NORTH OF THIS
LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AROUND THE PARIS AREA.
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...COLD ARCTIC AIR AND VERY STRONG WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION THAT MAY RESULT IN DECREASED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
ALSO...THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BY THE EVENING
HOURS...AND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE
REFREEZING OF ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS...POWER LINES...AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES.
EXPECT IMPACTS AND TRAVEL TO BE DISRUPTED DUE TO THIS SYSTEM. THE
STRONG WINDS...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION...AND COLD TEMPERATURES
COULD BRING DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE BRANCHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE RED RIVER WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHER. TRAVEL NEAR
THE RED RIVER MAY ALSO BE DIFFICULT DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM BLOWING SNOW AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ANY SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WERE TO SHIFT
FARTHER SOUTH...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION WOULD INCREASE AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WOULD ALSO
SHIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
BOTTOM LINE...WINTER PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...TO EMORY LINE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE FORECAST MAY
CHANGE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
252 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-240800-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
252 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME ON MONDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN
AS A WARM FRONT. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY...BUT THIS COULD
BE UPGRADED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT IS LESS LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES OR WINDS GREATER
THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS THAT
ARE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE TAKE THIS TIME TO
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
AN INTENSIFYING AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CHRISTMAS DAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON CHRISTMAS.
THE LATEST FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOWERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOP OVER OUR DELTA REGION...BUT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF THEM STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
PEOPLE IN YAZOO...BOLIVAR...CARROLL...CHOCTAW...CLAIBORNE...CLARKE...
CLAY...COPIAH...COVINGTON...FORREST...FRANKLIN...GRENADA...HINDS...
HOLMES...HUMPHREYS...ISSAQUENA...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...JONES...KEMPER...LAMAR...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LEAKE...
LEFLORE...LINCOLN...LOWNDES...MADISON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...
NESHOBA...NEWTON...NOXUBEE...OKTIBBEHA...RANKIN...SCOTT...SHARKEY...
SIMPSON...SMITH...SUNFLOWER...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WINSTON...ADAMS...ATTALA...CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST
CARROLL...MADISON...CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...EAST CARROLL...
FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE...RICHLAND AND TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
252 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-240800-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...
BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...DONALDSONVILLE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...
PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...
THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...
KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...
HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...
CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...YSCLOSKEY...
AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...CENTREVILLE...
WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...
PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...
BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...
ST. MARTIN
252 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CHRISTMAS DAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME ON MONDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD AGAIN
AS A WARM FRONT. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY...BUT THIS COULD
BE UPGRADED IF CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT IS LESS LIKELY.
THERE IS ALSO AT LEAST SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION...DEFINED AS STRONG TORNADOES OR WINDS GREATER
THAN 75 MILES PER HOUR. THIS THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY AND MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS THAT
ARE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 AND 12 CORRIDOR.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE TAKE THIS TIME TO
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER PLAN AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
127 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS DAY...
AN INTENSIFYING AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH
OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI CHRISTMAS DAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING ON CHRISTMAS.
THE LATEST FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LOWERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOP OVER OUR DELTA REGION...BUT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF THEM STRONG...WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IN ADDITION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RESIDENTS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS REGION SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER
UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON CONCERNING THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.
PEOPLE IN YAZOO...BOLIVAR...CARROLL...CHOCTAW...CLAIBORNE...CLARKE...
CLAY...COPIAH...COVINGTON...FORREST...FRANKLIN...GRENADA...HINDS...
HOLMES...HUMPHREYS...ISSAQUENA...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...JONES...KEMPER...LAMAR...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LEAKE...
LEFLORE...LINCOLN...LOWNDES...MADISON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...
NESHOBA...NEWTON...NOXUBEE...OKTIBBEHA...RANKIN...SCOTT...SHARKEY...
SIMPSON...SMITH...SUNFLOWER...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WINSTON...ADAMS...ATTALA...CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND WEST
CARROLL...MADISON...CATAHOULA...CONCORDIA...EAST CARROLL...
FRANKLIN...MOREHOUSE...RICHLAND AND TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19623
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPS HAVE STILL WARMED INTO THE
70S WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER OKLA WITH WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE OZARKS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND HELP GIVE FRONT IN OKLA A PUSH INTO TX. FRONT EXPECTED
TO REACH SE TX DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT LIKELY STALL ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA DURING THE DAY. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST GIVEN INCREASED GULF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
AND THEN 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS NEAR
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S AGAIN WITH 60S NORTH OF THE
FRONT. POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER.
CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP BUT LIKELY
SEE IT POSITIONED NEAR OR NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN
LINE. WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS
IN W TX AS A STRONG JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO
TX. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE 12Z
RUN HAS SLOWED IT DOWN MUCH LIKE PRIOR/CURRENT ECMWF RUNS. THE
NAM/SREF ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TX LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF
IT OVER MUCH OF E TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SLIGHT CAPPING
BUT LIFT SHOULD ERODE THIS DURING THE MORNING. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH WILL BE WHERE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
OCCUR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH AT 50-60 KTS
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR NEAR 20-30KTS. SRH HELICITY WILL BE AROUND
300-400 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AROUND 150-250 IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GIVEN THIS SET UP FEEL THAT ORGANIZED STORMS LIKE
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BECAUSE OF THIS WITH WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEST TIMING FOR TORNADOES STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM 09Z THROUGH ABOUT
15-18Z TUESDAY OR 3AM TO NOON LOCAL TIME. THINK MAIN AREA WILL BE
HOUSTON AREA NORTHWARD TO WARM FRONT BUT HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ALONG THE COAST SO THOSE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INCREASED WITH ANY SFC BASED STORMS THAT
EITHER FORM ALONG WARM FRONT OR MOVE ACROSS IT IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE ENE AND
LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z/NOON CHRISTMAS DAY. ONLY OTHER
ISSUES WITH CONVECTION BESIDES CAPPING WILL BE A DRY SLOT THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOULD DRY SLOT MOVE OUT OF W TX FASTER THAN
PROGGED...COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER SHIFT MORE RAPIDLY TO LA/MS
LATER IN THE MORNING. DRIER AND THEN MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN
MOVE INTO SE TX CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
EXPECT TO HAVE ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES OVER THE AREA WED
MORNING THROUGH THUR. THUR MORNING MAY BE COLDER THAN WED MORNING
AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST WED NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE CALMER
WITH CLEAR SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP THUR NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 30/40 PERCENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE FRI
WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012
...MONITORING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY...
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPS HAVE STILL WARMED INTO THE
70S WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER OKLA WITH WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE OZARKS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND HELP GIVE FRONT IN OKLA A PUSH INTO TX. FRONT EXPECTED
TO REACH SE TX DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT LIKELY STALL ACROSS
THE HOUSTON AREA DURING THE DAY. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST GIVEN INCREASED GULF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WINDS. WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
AND THEN 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS NEAR
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 70S AGAIN WITH 60S NORTH OF THE
FRONT. POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER.
CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE HOUSTON AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM FRONT WILL END UP BUT LIKELY
SEE IT POSITIONED NEAR OR NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO LUFKIN
LINE. WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS
IN W TX AS A STRONG JET STREAK AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INTO
TX. THE GFS HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH BUT THE 12Z
RUN HAS SLOWED IT DOWN MUCH LIKE PRIOR/CURRENT ECMWF RUNS. THE
NAM/SREF ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO TX LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF
IT OVER MUCH OF E TX. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME SLIGHT CAPPING
BUT LIFT SHOULD ERODE THIS DURING THE MORNING. NAM/GFS ALSO SHOW
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT SOME ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH WILL BE WHERE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
OCCUR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH AT 50-60 KTS
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR NEAR 20-30KTS. SRH HELICITY WILL BE AROUND
300-400 M2/S2 NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND AROUND 150-250 IN THE WARM
SECTOR. GIVEN THIS SET UP FEEL THAT ORGANIZED STORMS LIKE
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BECAUSE OF THIS WITH WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BEST TIMING FOR TORNADOES STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM 09Z THROUGH ABOUT
15-18Z TUESDAY OR 3AM TO NOON LOCAL TIME. THINK MAIN AREA WILL BE
HOUSTON AREA NORTHWARD TO WARM FRONT BUT HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST ALONG THE COAST SO THOSE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER.
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE INCREASED WITH ANY SFC BASED STORMS THAT
EITHER FORM ALONG WARM FRONT OR MOVE ACROSS IT IN THE MORNING
HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE ENE AND
LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z/NOON CHRISTMAS DAY. ONLY OTHER
ISSUES WITH CONVECTION BESIDES CAPPING WILL BE A DRY SLOT THAT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOULD DRY SLOT MOVE OUT OF W TX FASTER THAN
PROGGED...COULD SEE SEVERE WEATHER SHIFT MORE RAPIDLY TO LA/MS
LATER IN THE MORNING. DRIER AND THEN MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN
MOVE INTO SE TX CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
EXPECT TO HAVE ONE OF THE COLDEST AIRMASSES OVER THE AREA WED
MORNING THROUGH THUR. THUR MORNING MAY BE COLDER THAN WED MORNING
AS SFC RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST WED NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE CALMER
WITH CLEAR SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP THUR NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 30/40 PERCENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE FRI
WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
SSEO http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/
*This is experimental guidance, as not all members are 24/7 reliable.
The experimental SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) is produced by postprocessing seven (7) deterministic convection-allowing model runs. Special emphasis is placed on hourly maximum storm-attribute fields.
*This is experimental guidance, as not all members are 24/7 reliable.
The experimental SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) is produced by postprocessing seven (7) deterministic convection-allowing model runs. Special emphasis is placed on hourly maximum storm-attribute fields.
Last edited by JackCruz on Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JackCruz wrote:I don't see any cold air really, just the normal 30-32 degrees and highs in the 50's I don't see any 20's or teens (that's what I call colder than average weather for Houston). And after our "Christmas COLD BLAST" (whatever it's called) we'll warm back up into the 70's way above average and 50's-60's for lows...wow that's pretty amazing. I'm waiting for this pattern change? We've been talking about this since October people. If anything, we'll just have some average winter weather...nothing but lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s..we'll be lucky to see highs in the upper 40s. And precip will be minimal and will be pre-frontal..nothing to produce snow/sleet...maybe a tiny bit of ice if we pray really hard. FLORIDA WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE US HERE IN SE TEXAS. I WANT SNOW AND COLD WEATHER NOW, WHY ARE YOU GUYS RUINING WINTER! GIVE ME 20 DEGREE WEATHER AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW NOW! *in my Arizona voice*
Well, the link you posted above says the exact opposite of what you just wrote, so I'm confused.
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srainhoutx
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It's been snowing all day in Lake Tahoe as the storm system moves inland. Snowfall measured in feet has occurred across the Sierra Nevada Range.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
JackCruz wrote:JackCruz wrote:I don't see any cold air really, just the normal 30-32 degrees and highs in the 50's I don't see any 20's or teens (that's what I call colder than average weather for Houston). And after our "Christmas COLD BLAST" (whatever it's called) we'll warm back up into the 70's way above average and 50's-60's for lows...wow that's pretty amazing. I'm waiting for this pattern change? We've been talking about this since October people. If anything, we'll just have some average winter weather...nothing but lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid to upper 50s..we'll be lucky to see highs in the upper 40s. And precip will be minimal and will be pre-frontal..nothing to produce snow/sleet...maybe a tiny bit of ice if we pray really hard. FLORIDA WILL SEE SNOW BEFORE US HERE IN SE TEXAS. I WANT SNOW AND COLD WEATHER NOW, WHY ARE YOU GUYS RUINING WINTER! GIVE ME 20 DEGREE WEATHER AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW NOW! *in my Arizona voice*
What is a "pattern change" to you? Is it extreme cold weather? While we may differ on pattern changes, we HAVE had one. September-November was pretty dry for us all here in the South, and while we may not have had the wettest December, some of us have had some good solid rainfall this month. The Pacific has gotten noisy and looks to continue that way. I will also add, we're no longer in a zonal flow, as we are getting some nice cold shots from Canada. To me, Wednesday is looking pretty chilly. I expect folks in the northern viewing area to spend most of the day in the upper 30s before getting to around 40-44 for a brief moment. As far as in and around the Houston area, we will spend much of our day in the lower 40s before we drop back down near freezing Wednesday night.
While every once in awhile we'll see a prolong cold spell, it doesn't happen yearly. Cold front blows through, high pressure builds in, moves to the East, Gulf opens back up, and we're back to seasonable/mild temperatures. Nothing new...
I say we have had a pattern change and this active weather pattern looks to continue into the New Year.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Boomer Sooner
I don't see a clear out. moisture out of Mexico where is all that going?
I am hearing that there could be a tornado outbreak on Christmas. The last Christmas tornado outbreak occurred in Christmas 1982. The 1982 outbreak occurred as heavy rain fell in East Texas and Louisiana. Up to 15 inches of rain fell. That was during strong El Nino of 1982-1983.
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day tornado history
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/12/23/c ... o-history/
ArkLaMiss Christmas Day Climatology
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=climate- ... -vicksburg
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day tornado history
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/12/23/c ... o-history/
ArkLaMiss Christmas Day Climatology
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=climate- ... -vicksburg
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sun Dec 23, 2012 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Let the adjustments begin