June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[tireman4]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211738
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...CINDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 92.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 92.9 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (14 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
then toward the north is expected tonight and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is expected before landfall, with weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and
northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area today through
Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight from
the western Florida Panhandle across southwest Alabama, southern
Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ccbluewater]

On a side note, it really feels nice outside today!

[Rip76]

Hilarious.
That last eastward jog just pulled all the storms away from the Houston area.

[Texaspirate11]

Very dark by the bay - and winds have picked up a bit.

[tireman4]

If Cindy does not start make its northward turn soon....( Brooks alluded to this in his Facebook Live)....

[brooksgarner]

Exactly. It's going WNW around 290° ... not NW @ 310°, as the 1pm CDT NHC advisory stated. ... If it does this for another few hours, it'd bring that rain closer to Houston with each passing moment. A stripe of 5"-8"+ could fall (currently) from the City-Region near Beaumont to Polk County... however, if it tracks just 60 miles farther west, that stripe could set up closer to the Houston metro, which would be a flood threat, since it would all fall in just a few hours' time.

[Rip76]

Brooks,
Do you think that the "center" could just outrun all of the convection and move west?

[CAK]

Is it me or does the center of this system appear to be regenerating west under a new plume of convection? Hmmmm

[srainhoutx]

Is it me or does the center of this system appear to be regenerating west under a new plume of convection? Hmmmm

Just back after being away all morning Looking at GOES 16 Rapid Scan, I count 3...possibly 4 meso vortices spinning within the broad circulation. Over all it appears to be S of Lake Charles. Better turn NNW soon...

[davidiowx]

Looks like it may have made that turn?

[Heat Miser]

Radar returns appear to bring the threat of rain closer to the Houston Metro area. Yes, I know you can't base all conclusions on radars, but to me it appears to be moving right at us. Could be an interesting night.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Tropical storm force winds nearing the upper TX and SW LA coasts.

Offshore oil rigs and buoys have been reporting frequent wind gust to 50-55mph this morning. Radar images from Houston and Lake Charles have shown the gradual development of showers and thunderstorms across the NW semi-circle of the circulation this morning as dry air has nearly wrapped around the southern and eastern half of the surface circulation. This development of more concentrated heavy rainfall over the north and western portions of the circulation does give some confidence that the western side of Cindy may be the more active portion of the storm up through landfall. Based on the current forecast track which maintains the landfall of Cindy into the Sabine Pass area, this mass of heavy rainfall on the northwest side of the circulation will affect Jefferson, Chambers, Liberty, and possibly eastern Harris Counties starting later this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

Will pull back some on the expected rainfall totals, but leave all other impacts the same.

Winds:
Chambers County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Wed night and Thursday morning
Galveston County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Bolivar and Galveston Island Wed night and Thursday morning
Harris County: sustained winds of 30-40mph possible late Wed night and Thursday morning may gust to 45 along the bay front.
Liberty County: sustained winds of 30-40mph Thursday morning.

All other counties: winds generally below 40mph.

Tides:
Tides continue to run above normal both in Galveston Bay and along the Gulf beaches as the morning low tide has become trapped along the coast due to increasing long period wave action. Seas have increased to near 7 feet across the nearshore waters and pushing 8-12 feet offshore.

Chambers County: 3.5-4.4 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Galveston County: 3.5-4.5 feet above MLLW
Harris County: 2-3 feet above MLLW
Brazoria: 1-2 feet above MLLW

Note: Given the current forecast track NNE and N winds on Thursday morning will help to pile water against the north facing shores of Galveston Island and Bolivar.

Rainfall:
Chambers County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Liberty County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Harris County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches mainly east of I-45
Galveston County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches
San Jacinto County: 2-3 inches isolated 5 inches
Polk County: 4 inches isolated 6 inches
Montgomery County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches
Walker County: 1-2 inches isolated 3 inches

[BlueJay]

Thanks srain and Jeff. That answers my rain question.

[javakah]

Jeff's update kind of reflects some of my thoughts here right now.

It seems like we are getting way too focused on where the 'center' is going to make landfall, which is a bit of a fool's errand right now since the 'center' is such a mess right now.

The bigger thing now is just for us to watch what the satellites and radar are showing, which is that there's much more development now on the north/northwest side, with that development looking like it wants to shift west towards Houston, although it also appears to be weakening at the same time. So it's possible that we may have to watch for rain a bit further west than expected yesterday. GOES16 infrared really shows the development well.

[Texaspirate11]

Living off Galveston Bay
I look to the clouds

Nice GOES 16 shot

[srainhoutx]

Looks like 4 vortices rotating within the broad low.

[StormOne]

Rookie question, but how often do we see a system with multiple vorticies?

[djmike]

Look at the squall form below LC. Looks to be a the first of the "rain" for us here in BMT. Might even give HOU a lashing later tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Rookie question, but how often do we see a system with multiple vorticies?

They are very common in even well developed Major Hurricanes. Irene had several that was documented by zoomed in visible Imagery. Hurricane Ike had 3 when it was making Landfall. True story..Forecaster Beven was at the desk as Ike came inland. RECON measured CAT 3 winds in one of the vortices. Jack almost pulled the trigger to Upgrade Ike, but HGX and RECON radar couldn't sustain the winds long enough to meet the criteria for a Major Hurricane...not that it really mattered. Surge values were clearly a Category 4 level due to the large size of the Hurricane

[tireman4]

Good tool to use tracking Cindy


http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/