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wxman57 wrote:Tell you what, folks, what I'm seeing on the long-range models (ECMWF and GFS) indicates that we're nowhere near the end of winter in Houston. I see one storm after another with colder and colder air coming down. Our snow chances may be increasing the next few weeks. It just takes the right timing of a passing disturbance with cold air overhead. I don't see any events in the latest model runs, just very cold air. 10-day Euro has cross-Polar flow that dips all the way down to the Gulf! So don't put away those winter coats just yet...

txsnowmaker wrote:Congratulations to the folks further north toward the Dallas area. It looks like you are in store for some nice accumulations later today/tonight. They should be getting what was forecast for the Dec. 4 event in Houston: 3-5 inches widespread with some areas receiving more. The difference mainly being that most if not all of it will stick for them. Perhaps someday Houston will see a repeat of the '89 event when we had about a couple of inches on the ground for more than a few hours. Here's hoping for that!

wxman57 wrote:Tell you what, folks, what I'm seeing on the long-range models (ECMWF and GFS) indicates that we're nowhere near the end of winter in Houston. I see one storm after another with colder and colder air coming down. Our snow chances may be increasing the next few weeks. It just takes the right timing of a passing disturbance with cold air overhead. I don't see any events in the latest model runs, just very cold air. 10-day Euro has cross-Polar flow that dips all the way down to the Gulf! So don't put away those winter coats just yet...

Major Winter Storm affecting Texas.

Accumulating snow over N TX with winter mix likely over the northern 1/3rd of SE TX…some accumulation is possible.

Discussion:

Strong upper level low noted west of El Paso this morning spreading lift and moisture over the top of the cold air mass over TX. Band of moderate to heavy snow has developed from W TX to NW Louisiana including the DFW area where 1-2 inches is already on the ground. Locally, the low level air mass has warmed overnight ending the period of sleet many saw yesterday afternoon. The only exception is over our northern counties where profiles remain favorable for rain mixed with sleet along and north of a line from College Station to Corrigan. In fact the latest observations show snow being reported as far south as just north of Waco.

Main upper forcing and colder mid level temperatures will move across the state tonight with the core of the upper low. I am becoming a little more concerned than a changeover to all snow may occur over our northern counties given the cooling of the profiles and result in some accumulation. IN fact rain/sleet/snow mix may extend as far southward as a Hempstead to Conroe line early Friday morning. Will await the 12Z model guidance before going with a snow solution for the northern counties. Per NWS grids north of a line from College Station to Corrigan ½ -2 inches of slushy accumulation will be possible this afternoon into tonight with amounts of 2-6 inches over N TX and just east of our area over SW and WC LA where a few locations may see their greatest snowfall in over 3 decades.

Southward over the metro Houston area…the GFS and NAM forecast soundings remain warm enough to keep everything mostly liquid. The GFS does cool the profile toward 600am Friday toward freezing, but the layer of above freezing still looks deep enough to melt most of anything frozen (roughly 3,000-5,000 feet deep). Any slight deviation of the track of the upper low southward will bring more of the area under a winter mix of precip. and likely result in some greater amounts of accumulation.

Accumulations:

Surface temperatures will remain above freezing over all of the area today. Even in Dallas with snow falling and on the ground the air temp is only 32. The concern will be tonight (not that temps. will cool much), but that the P-type will change to more snow over our northern counties with snowfall rates increasing allowing accumulation even with temps above freezing. Feel at times moderate/heavy snow is possible over Madison, Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties resulting in some slushy accumulations of .5-2 inches. If temps. cool just 1-2 degrees even greater accumulations will be possible.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be likely over the rest of the area under generally light rains with at times moderate rains.

Close watch on the trends today for the northern parts of our area…as with any winter weather threat fine lines in the details can make large forecast adjustments.

Cloud2ground wrote:It has indeed been a cold and miserable winter with one event of snow at the onset. It certainly doesn't qualify in any way as a snowy winter.......or exciting.
Yes, the 08 event had more snow on the ground then 89, but 89 had all are most of the roads iced over, I know because I drove in it. Nasty stuff.
Can't believe you'd be satisfied with one dusting at the onset, with cloudy, cold, wet, ever since.
Hey, but I guess we all look at weather differently.
Maybe we'll get another snow event later this month.

Mr. T wrote:

txsnowmaker wrote:Congratulations to the folks further north toward the Dallas area. It looks like you are in store for some nice accumulations later today/tonight. They should be getting what was forecast for the Dec. 4 event in Houston: 3-5 inches widespread with some areas receiving more. The difference mainly being that most if not all of it will stick for them. Perhaps someday Houston will see a repeat of the '89 event when we had about a couple of inches on the ground for more than a few hours. Here's hoping for that!

Speak for yourself. The Dec 08 storm had more snow here in Kingwood than in 89. From talking with my parents to video shot during and after the snow in 89, it appears maybe an inch or a little less was on the ground during that time here in Kingwood. I do know IAH recieved slightly more snow. Also, the snow last December lasted on the ground for almost 24 hours (from about noon that friday afternoon to about 10 am the next morning. There were actually still a few patches of snow left the next night in covered areas and ditches around the area)

The snow we've recieved these past two seasons (first time in recorded history) has more than enough satisfied myself. You can't really ask for a better winter than what we've seen so far in SE TX if you like cold and snow. Earliest snowfall on record, top ten coldest December, record cold in January, and another likely top ten cold month for February.

Mr. T wrote:

Cloud2ground wrote:It has indeed been a cold and miserable winter with one event of snow at the onset. It certainly doesn't qualify in any way as a snowy winter.......or exciting.
Yes, the 08 event had more snow on the ground then 89, but 89 had all are most of the roads iced over, I know because I drove in it. Nasty stuff.
Can't believe you'd be satisfied with one dusting at the onset, with cloudy, cold, wet, ever since.
Hey, but I guess we all look at weather differently.
Maybe we'll get another snow event later this month.

wxman57 wrote:Speaking of cold, nasty winter weather to persist for weeks. My mind has drifted to a much better place than Houston to spend the winter - Tahiti! There's an extra chair on the beach if anyone wants to join me!

Cloud2ground wrote:To me it has been boring, except for the snow event on December 4th. Sorry, but cold, cloudy, and rainy weather doesn't really get me going.
Not really silly, just my opinion and yours differ on what we find exciting in weather.

Cloud2ground wrote:To me it has been boring, except for the snow event on December 4th. Sorry, but cold, cloudy, and rainy weather doesn't really get me going.
Not really silly, just my opinion and yours differ on what we find exciting in weather.