Wx Infinity Forums

I noticed that too. Interesting....to say the least...

GFS18z

Scott747 wrote:Seeing some changes with the 18z GFS.

Not much different then the 12z but didn't think it would change much. If things are to change I would expect the 00z to be the big change with a shift east. That is if it follows the Ensemble members.

GFS 84hrs

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Seeing some changes with the 18z GFS.

Not much different then the 12z but didn't think it would change much. If things are to change I would expect the 00z to be the big change with a shift east. That is if it follows the Ensemble members.

Comes in around Houma at hr 51 but the ridge isn't as strong and doesn't have the pronounced westward movement as with the 12z .

Agree that it will be the 0z run where a shift to the E would possibly occur.

Seemed like the 18z was a little bit faster with storm motion as well as being a bit east of the 12z run.

What were the coordinates from 11:00 am? I don't think this thing is moving nw...

sambucol wrote:

Andrew wrote:This constant wnw movement is pretty concerning. Already a good bit farther south then the models projected

How will the more southern location affect the track of Isaac?

Well if we just have a temporary southern track it won't do much, but if this wnw movement continues for an extended period of time the trough will have less influence on Isaac since it is farther south. As a result an outcome like the gfs is advertising could occur versus the Euro which sends it North and eventually NE. It is a tricky situation because a little stronger or weaker ridging or trough could make a huge difference.

Scott747 wrote:

Andrew wrote:

Scott747 wrote:Seeing some changes with the 18z GFS.

Not much different then the 12z but didn't think it would change much. If things are to change I would expect the 00z to be the big change with a shift east. That is if it follows the Ensemble members.

Comes in around Houma at hr 51 but the ridge isn't as strong and doesn't have the pronounced westward movement as with the 12z .

Agree that it will be the 0z run where a shift to the E would possibly occur.

Yea I noticed the ridging wasn't as strong but still isn't enough to send it NE. We will see what the 00z models show. The concerning part is they can't even verify in the short range movement (unless this movement switches) .

CaliforniaSux wrote:What were the coordinates from 11:00 am? I don't think this thing is moving nw...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W

EDIT TO ADD: Radar looks like it is moving almost due west.

what changes? looks like some late nights for me this upcoming week......

Andrew wrote:

CaliforniaSux wrote:What were the coordinates from 11:00 am? I don't think this thing is moving nw...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W

EDIT TO ADD: Radar looks like it is moving almost due west.

So the newest 24.0 N is about 7 miles... This thing is moving west...

CaliforniaSux wrote:

Andrew wrote:

CaliforniaSux wrote:What were the coordinates from 11:00 am? I don't think this thing is moving nw...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 80.8W

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 81.5W

EDIT TO ADD: Radar looks like it is moving almost due west.

So the newest 24.0 N is about 7 miles... This thing is moving west...

Yea... Been moving pretty much west/ wnw since about 11am

Portastorm wrote:Seemed like the 18z was a little bit faster with storm motion as well as being a bit east of the 12z run.

Yeah it keeps getting a bit faster with each run. Approaching the coast early Tuesday evening.

Weather station MKRAU, a buoy I think, that is SW of Key West...is showing winds out of the ENE at 63 MPH! Dry Tortugas is showing 37 MPH with gusts to 51.

Worrisome to see a CDO (Central Dense Overcast) developing. Past experience suggest that storms W and NW of Key West can develop rapidly...

I read a discussion elsewhere that if it doesn't turn north by tomorrow afternoon, Houston and Beaumont will be on the table as possible landfall locations. Opinions anyone?

sambucol wrote:I read a discussion elsewhere that if it doesn't turn north by tomorrow afternoon, Houston and Beaumont will be on the table as possible landfall locations. Opinions anyone?

Read the exact same thing!

Watched the NWS Houston/Galveston briefing just a second ago which offered their take on Isaac. Interesting to say the least.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

djmike wrote:

sambucol wrote:I read a discussion elsewhere that if it doesn't turn north by tomorrow afternoon, Houston and Beaumont will be on the table as possible landfall locations. Opinions anyone?

Read the exact same thing!

Way too early to talk about this yet. Right now LA/ Mississippi looks like the area of concern.