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Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1148 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

TXC167-201-231745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0215.170823T1648Z-170823T1745Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Galveston TX-Harris TX-
1148 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1245 PM CDT.

* At 1146 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated training heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Rates around 3 inches per hour are being observed
near Clear Creek and Interstate 45. This will cause minor flooding
in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southeastern Pasadena, League City, eastern Friendswood, La Porte,
Seabrook, Webster, Kemah, southeastern Clear Lake, Nassau Bay,
Taylor Lake Village, El Lago, Clear Lake Shores, The Johnson Space
Center and Kemah Boardwalk.

More west shifts

Fwiw the 12z GFS shows some areas in southeast Texas getting 40+ inches of rain...., take that with a grain of salt of course

What a good site to see the latest models?

Forecasting the track of this system will be a headache. It could go west or go se or even northeast after landfall. Steering collapses and the system could meander anywhere unpredictably.

djmike wrote:What a good site to see the latest models?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

srainhoutx wrote:

djmike wrote:What a good site to see the latest models?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Thank you srain!

ukmet

Andrew, I know ur busy but quick question, what do u make of the CMC run?

stormlover wrote:Andrew, I know ur busy but quick question, what do u make of the CMC run?

Not a likely solution. Steering breaks down along the Texas coastline. The CMC has a strong ridging over the gulf that pushes west.

CMC which was consistently near Matagorda, shifted down south the past 2 runs..now the NAVY model who was consistently near Matagorda for the past several runs has shifted down south ...hm. Can't wait for EURO.

Was is the cmc showing? Unable to see any attachments at work. Thanks

Brownsville and then mexico bound

unome wrote:

unome wrote:might be seeing Mark in a few ?

https://youtu.be/1Dnl8pyfjN8

another update, about 15 minutes long - he's on his way to TX !

http://hurricanetrack.com/
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.facebook.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.youtube.com/hurricanetrack
https://www.instagram.com/hurricanetrack/

another update 11:45 AM Wed - at the links above

TXWeatherFan wrote:Was supposed to head to Bolivar this weekend (VRBO rental), anyone think it would still be ok to head down and ride out the storm?

Not a great idea.

There are two ways off the Bolivar peninsula: the ferry and highway 87. The high tides/storm surge will shut down the ferry and flood highway 87 long before the storm makes landfall. Let me emphasis this. I've driven the beach (4x4ing) from Surfside in Freeport to Sabine Pass on LA border. Bolivar is basically sea level and highway 87 floods at the drop of a hat... especially at the eastern end where it connects with mainland. The ferries are low free-board boats that operate only in good weather and good seas - they shut down as easily as highway 87 floods.

Which means you will be trapped on the peninsula. So if the storm intensifies (and it may, storm intensity is more uncertain than storm direction) and makes a bee line for SE East (which intensifying storms are want to due - shift right/east) and you decide you no longer want to ride it out... well, sorry, too late, your trapped. The only way off is being swept out in the the sea... the third way to get off the peninsula.

Honestly, a quasi barrier island like Bolivar is the last place you should think about heading in the face of a tropical cyclone approaching Texas. You do not want to be here during a storm:


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/us/16bolivar.html

NWS Southern Region Headquarters has their Tropical Webpage up with a plethora of good info on

Outlook
Active Storms
Threats and Impacts
Local Products
Satellite
Radar
Preparedness
Miscellaneous

highly recommend this: http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical

Euro with a pretty significant shift west as well. Man I would have to be the NHC trying to forecast this. Extremely complicated set up to pinpoint a location.

Something else to be thinking about if you live along the Tx/La border (like me). If we get all of this rain they are projecting, AND they get a significant rain up around Toledo Bend, the Sabine River Authority will be opening flood gates to release water from the lake. The lake is only 12" low right now. Alot of people have still not recovered from the flood back in March, 2016 when they had the big release. I can only imagine what would happen should they have to make another large, extended release to go along with all of the rain that is expected. It could be one of those "pack and never return" situations..

Anyone have the EURO?

As a complete novice, just looking at the visible imagery, this thing appears to be beginning to have influence over the entire southern Gulf. Cloud circulation is far, far outside the center of the low pressure.