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It’s just very difficult for a storm to make it as far west to Texas without a trough picking it up. That’s why the other Gulf coast states see a decent amount more action than we do.

Snowman65 still subject to change big time, no circulation has formed, but right now it is looking that way unfortunately

All I know is that it's disgusting outside right now.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:00 pm All I know is that it's disgusting outside right now.

Is it bad that I’m already looking forward to the first cold front?

Cromagnum 100 % agree with you on that, just got back from a walk with my dog and it feels like an oven outside, hoping we get some showers to pop up

It would be no surprise if the solution is None of the Above.

Mexico...then eventually into the EPAC.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:02 pm Cromagnum 100 % agree with you on that, just got back from a walk with my dog and it feels like an oven outside, hoping we get some showers to pop up

As the spouse of a veterinarian, please do not take your dogs out in this. She unfortunately makes a lot of money trying to save heat stroke pets.

Mexico?

Lemonade?

LaTx?


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave might be added along 13W and inland over west
Africa on the 18Z surface analysis. Latest satellite imagery
reveals scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection near the west coast of Africa from 03N to 13N between
06W and 18W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W and from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
near the southern part of the wave within 70 miles of 07N25W.

The axis another tropical wave is near 39W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted near the southern end of the wave from 02N to
07N between 31W and 41W.

The axis of a third tropical wave is near 56W from 15N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of Guyana from 08N to 10N between 52W and 58W. This
tropical wave is forecasted to reach the Windward Islands this
evening, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
there.

The axis of a fourth tropical wave is along 80W from 18N
southward, moving W at near 5 kt. Isolated showers are noted
across the Colombian Basin along both sides of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near the
border of Guinea Bissau at 11N14W and continues through southwest
of the Cap Verde Islands near 10N28W to end north of Brazil at
06N44W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N44W westward to end near
north of French Guyana at 08N54W. Aside from the convection
described in the tropical waves section above, there is no other
major convection.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1010 mb is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 20N95W. A surface trough extends northwestward from
17N91W through the low to 23N96W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 18N to 23N between 90W and 97W.
The overall system has become somewhat better organized since
yesterday. Slow development is possible during the next few days
while the system meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical
depression could form late in the week while the system begins to
move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
during the next several days. Please consult products from your
local meteorological service for more information. Currently the
Tropical Weather Outlook gives this disturbance a medium chance of
tropical cyclone development through 5 days.

A 1015 mb high is centered near 28N94W with a ridge axis
extending westward to the central Texas coast and also eastward
through southern Florida. A surface trough curves northeastward
from the NE Gulf at 25N85W across central Florida to just east of
Georgia coast at 31N79W. Aided by divergent flow aloft, scattered
moderate convection is seen south of New Orleans within 50 miles
of 28N88W, and from west and central Cuba northeastward to the
Bahamas. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted over the NW
Gulf north of 27N, with gentle to moderate westerly winds across E
Gulf. Moderate E to SE winds are present south of 27N, including
the Gulf of Campeche. Seas are 1 to 3 ft are across the basin,
except higher in and near any convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through early week supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer data showed fresh to occasional strong winds
in the S central Caribbean and north of Colombia with seas at 4 to
7 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere with seas of 2
to 4 ft. Convergent southeasterly winds are coupling with upper-
level diffluence to trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras extending northward to
the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong
trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras into Thu
night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except
light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave will move into the E
Caribbean late tonight and cross the central Caribbean during
midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves northeastward from the NE Gulf at 25N85W
across central Florida to just east of Georgia coast at 31N79W.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up over
central Florida and westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere,
high pressure ridging dominates the basin anchored by a 1030 mb
high center over the Azores near 38N28W, extending west-southwest
through 31N47W to the northeastern Caribbean and the southeast
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds are found under the ridge axis,
with moderate to fresh winds north of 27N and west of 60W, as well
as south of 20N and west of 40W, and east of 50W. An upper-level
low near 30N50W is triggering scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 23N between 42W and 51W. Tightening
pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressure over
northern Africa is producing fresh to strong northeast winds
south of 28N and east of 27W near and south of the Canary Islands
with seas at 6 to 8 ft. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft east of the
Bahamas across the open waters of the tropical Atlantic.

A large area of Sahara dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward
to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and Sahara
Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward today. Winds will fresh north of 28N through
the early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of
the area, except locally strong Tue through Wed.

$$

GR/PC

Cromagnum I know I made my walk short, under 10 minutes around the mailbox, cant stand being in heat, but yeah im definitely keeping my doggo out of this awful heat

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:03 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:02 pm Cromagnum 100 % agree with you on that, just got back from a walk with my dog and it feels like an oven outside, hoping we get some showers to pop up

As the spouse of a veterinarian, please do not take your dogs out in this. She unfortunately makes a lot of money trying to save heat stroke pets.

Early am or I wait until evening. Dogs/ wolves body temp is normally 102°F, ideal temperature for skeletal muscle contractions, performance. However, Texas sun and heat can drive their already high body temps to dangerous levels quickly.

"Mad dogs and Englishmen, go out in the midday sun" per Noel Coward.

Feels like the end of July out there instead of mid June. 96° with a feels like of 108°. Just flat out unbearable.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:07 pm Cromagnum I know I made my walk short, under 10 minutes around the mailbox, cant stand being in heat, but yeah im definitely keeping my doggo out of this awful heat

You'd be surprised. She actually deals with this more when it's warm to borderline hot in the 80s when it's not too unbearable for us humans. Usually when it's like today, nobody is doing anything outside.

Euro ensembles show mostly Texas for 92L

Cromagnum man it's going to be hard to walk my doggo considering this unbearable weather will be lasting at least the next 3 months, unfortunately my dog most likely wont be alive by then, has an incurable cancer

Harveyvallison yeah they do, Operational models are favoring SE Lousiana, other spaghetti models take this back into mexico, this is just an absolute mess of a forecast

The reason why spaghetti models take 92L into Mexico is because the center marked right now is not the same low the models show forming into a storm later this week.There are multiple vorticities rotating around the gyre, and the one currently marked by the NHC is not what models have forming. The current vorticity will move inland or dissipate over the next couple of days, and when that happens that's when the models show another piece of energy rotating around the gyre and undergoing tropical genesis.Expect more flip flops until there is an established system.

And while I would lean more towards a dry weekend being in the cards for us at this time. I still wouldn't write this system off quite yet as the models are showing a track very close to a landfall along the Texas coast and even slight deviations in track or organization will make a big difference on rather we have sunny and dry conditions or a windy washout.Especially considering we don't have a defined center yet and the average forecast error in models in this range.

I’m up at Texas Motor Speedway (just NW of Ft Worth) for the Nascar race this evening and it’s absolutely miserable with the heat.

Hopefully us here in Beaumont at the TX/LA border will see some beneficial cooling rains from this system. Most will be east Im assuming but with us so close to LA, possible wrap around moisture for us IF it heads more for SW/Central LA.

Hit 100F here today. The neighborhood pool was great packed!

It was hot today! Just the beginning of it dries out and we don’t get some rain