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Re: July 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:39 pm
by user:null
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:33 pmI hear ya. Once the youngest graduates we are selling our Texas holdings and moving everything to Florida. I’m done.
I concur, the SE US in/adjacent to Florida is the last bastion of good climate in this country. Sea-level rise concerns must be dealt with though, or the US will no longer have any good climates (i.e. except the obvious Hawaii).
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 9:40 pm
by jasons2k
Side note: I was in the pool this afternoon listening to Q105 out of Tampa, an “all 80’s weekend” - and they gave the following weather report:
“It’s typical summer weather with a high of 90, mostly sunny and then a 50/50 chance of those afternoon thunderstorms.”
YES! That’s allI can say. That’s what it should be. I was thinking “add 10 degrees and lower the rain chances down to 20% (or less)” and that’s what we are cursed with.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:52 pm
by Cpv17
The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:03 pm
by DoctorMu
Only GEPS Ensemble has any rain near the end of the month. Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, GEFS have nada.
I'm so DONE with Texas weather. Hoping to become rich and move back to NC.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:48 pm
by jasons2k
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:03 pm
Only GEPS Ensemble has any rain near the end of the month. Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, GEFS have nada.
I'm so DONE with Texas weather. Hoping to become rich and move back to NC.
Like Srain! Haha!
Someday we will have a Texas expatriate thread- but not because of the politics - but because of the damn weather! Haha
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:03 am
by user:null
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:52 pm
The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air.
EML is a factor with westerly dominated regimes in Texas, true.
But in today's 18z run, the upper level winds were basically easterly the entire time, except some brief northerlies at times — and the model still refuses to generate much precip for Texas.
Actually, the vast majority of days this past summer still featured some sort of upper easterly wind component over SE Texas ... maybe some northeasterlies/northerlies some days at most. Often, the ridge center is never overhead. Still rainless many days.
And, honestly, now that I look, all the rain chances I see that affect the Southern states farther east receive lots of help from northern stream activity — if not outright direct with a cold front, then at least the effects of shortwaves/mean troughs in spewing vortices, height weaknesses, etc. Even FL peninsula is helped out by the northern stream tendencies — it's possible that the sea-breeze storms only happen because of the height weakness generated by them.
So that's a dead Gulf. Same for much of the Atlantic. Verified by 300-700mb moisture, as well as 200mb velocity potential (i.e. all the positive ascent anomalies are in the Eastern Hemisphere).
Of course, it's surely possible that tendencies with the upper levels can affect moisture depth within areas of the Gulf. But, nevertheless, a truly active Gulf would be an engine unto itself full of ascent. The ridging wouldn't even be able to sustain at all (if present to begin with) because it would be destroyed/eroded by the ascent. Lots of homegrown activity unto itself, without any reliance on decaying fronts.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:42 am
by Cpv17
user:null wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:03 am
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:52 pm
The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air.
EML is a factor with westerly dominated regimes in Texas, true.
But in today's 18z run, the upper level winds were basically easterly the entire time, except some brief northerlies at times — and the model still refuses to generate much precip for Texas.
Actually, the vast majority of days this past summer still featured some sort of upper easterly wind component over SE Texas ... maybe some northeasterlies/northerlies some days at most. Often, the ridge center is never overhead. Still rainless many days.
And, honestly, now that I look, all the rain chances I see that affect the Southern states farther east receive lots of help from northern stream activity — if not outright direct with a cold front, then at least the effects of shortwaves/mean troughs in spewing vortices, height weaknesses, etc. Even FL peninsula is helped out by the northern stream tendencies — it's possible that the sea-breeze storms only happen because of the height weakness generated by them.
So that's a dead Gulf. Same for much of the Atlantic. Verified by 300-700mb moisture, as well as 200mb velocity potential (i.e. all the positive ascent anomalies are in the Eastern Hemisphere).
Of course, it's surely possible that tendencies with the upper levels can affect moisture depth within areas of the Gulf. But, nevertheless, a truly active Gulf would be an engine unto itself full of ascent. The ridging wouldn't even be able to sustain at all (if present to begin with) because it would be destroyed/eroded by the ascent. Lots of homegrown activity unto itself, without any reliance on decaying fronts.
Just need to get La Niña out of here and we need to have a major crash of the SOI.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:02 am
by Cromagnum
We need this blocking pattern in September, not the first half of the summer when there are practically no hurricanes anyways.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:41 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:48 pm
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 11:03 pm
Only GEPS Ensemble has any rain near the end of the month. Euro, GFS, CMC, ICON, GEFS have nada.
I'm so DONE with Texas weather. Hoping to become rich and move back to NC.
Like Srain! Haha!
Someday we will have a Texas expatriate thread- but not because of the politics - but because of the damn weather! Haha
NC is now the #1 state for business. Unfortunately, I'm in academia.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:22 pm
by Cromagnum
Am hearing that El Nino is unlikely to return until late 2023, so we can look forward to another year of no spring and boilerplate dry summer.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:35 pm
by DoctorMu
Last July we had 7 days in the 80s and 10 days with measurable precipitation in CLL Two days in the 80s in August!
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:48 pm
by user:null
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:42 amJust need to get La Niña out of here and we need to have a major crash of the SOI.
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 1:22 pm
Am hearing that El Nino is unlikely to return until late 2023, so we can look forward to another year of no spring and boilerplate dry summer.
I don't know, it's conflicting — Larry Cosgrove says that lots of El Nino tendencies are showing up later this year, whereas others say that it's a La Nina three-peat.
Personally, I'm not the biggest fan of El Nino — too much winter gloominess/sogginess if the storm systems are too excessive, which carries into spring, and still doesn't prevent ridging during summer (see, summer of 2009, 2019, as well as the July flash drought of 2015). But certainly, the antecedent winter, spring rains do help in keeping water supplies and such high to ride through any summer dry spell.
Regardless of ENSO, we just need whatever patterns will force the ridge someplace else. I've heard that the NAO is a huge factor, will have to look that up.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 2:50 pm
by user:null
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 12:42 amJust need to get La Niña out of here and we need to have a major crash of the SOI.
I've noticed trends in models taking the ridge to more of a "Bermuda" dominance later this week starting Friday/Saturday, rather than centered out in the Southwest/Intermountains like it has been the past few days. The Bermuda dominance is better for cooler, wet summer weather in Texas, so fingers crossed.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 4:28 pm
by user:null
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 16, 2022 10:52 pm
The Gulf isn’t really dead. It provides plenty of wet weather from LA through FL. It’s just the way the jet stream and upper level winds are steered, the higher pwats are east of us more consistently and we get stuck with arid Mexican desert like air.
Also forgot to mention — I do agree with you upper level flow can create mid-upper layer dry air over Texas that inhibits storms.
Of course, this dry air could just be general ridge-induced subsidence (i.e. which seems higher on eastern sides, corresponding to western sides of troughs), or the EML, or a combination of both.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:16 pm
by Cromagnum
I worry about the rocket fuel in the gulf that's just sitting and cooking, biding it's time until September.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:10 pm
by davidiowx
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 5:16 pm
I worry about the rocket fuel in the gulf that's just sitting and cooking, biding it's time until September.
Just got back from Bolivar with the family and the water is Hot. It’s crazy when the temps down there are 87-88 and the water is hotter than that.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 6:13 pm
by Stratton20
yup and without any disturbed weather in the GOM, the oceanic heat energy will continue to build, definitely could be scary when its peak season and a disturbance taps into that energy available
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:16 pm
by DoctorMu
El Nino summers are what we want. Shearing tropical systems and more likely to see lemon-ade showers and relief without having homes and refineries destroyed.
Neutral winters are fine.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:35 pm
by Cromagnum
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Jul 17, 2022 8:16 pm
El Nino summers are what we want. Shearing tropical systems and more likely to see lemon-ade showers and relief without having homes and refineries destroyed.
Neutral winters are fine.
It so rarely snows down here that I couldn't care less if we ever see it again. I would trade that in a heartbeat over the devastating droughts we get.
Re: July 2022
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2022 12:02 pm
by Stratton20
Euro and CMC sniffing out a back door front around the 27/28th, GFS not enthused though