Re: September 2023
Posted: Sun Sep 24, 2023 10:45 pm
The atmosphere over SE TX must not be very supportive of rain. Everything is going poof the closer it gets to us.
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.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
A slow moving, weak front will be moving through the area today
bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is
fairly diffuse, so we won`t be getting a line of activity like we
would with a more robust FROPA. The exact locations of the storms
will be driven by mesoscale features/boundary interactions, so
forecasting that more than an hour or two out is very tricky.
However, the best chance for precipitation will be north of Conroe
through the mid morning, then transitioning to the I-10 corridor by
noon, and then closer to the coast in the late afternoon as the sea
breeze gets to interact with remnant outflow boundaries. The storms
that develop today will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, hail, and strong to
even severe wind gusts. Coverage wanes by sunset, though could still
see some lingering coastal showers and storms into the overnight
hours.
The front that moves through the area will become more and more
diffuse as it does, but not totally wash out before stalling near
the coast through Tuesday (and beyond). So, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon hours on Tuesday along the coast moving inland through the
late afternoon - though would be shocked if areas north of the
Houston Metro were able to get any meaningful rainfall on Tuesday.
There will be a bit of a high temperature gradient today from north
to south as the weak front pushes through the area. Areas north of
Conroe may only climb into the mid to upper 80s or near 90 degrees
today while areas along and south of I-10 get a bit more time in the
pre-frontal airmass/daytime heating thus getting into the mid 90s.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be more uniform with most of the
area getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows tonight
will be in the low 70s for most of the region with the Houston Metro
and areas along the coast getting down into the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will generally be the same for the
majority of the area, but areas north of Huntsville may get a few
degrees cooler as they get some clearing skies with lows
potentially as cool as the mid to upper 60s.
Fowler
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 6:57 am Widespread rains? More like widespread bust.
I don't know whether to believe today's prediction either.
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
A slow moving, weak front will be moving through the area today
bringing with it scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front is
fairly diffuse, so we won`t be getting a line of activity like we
would with a more robust FROPA. The exact locations of the storms
will be driven by mesoscale features/boundary interactions, so
forecasting that more than an hour or two out is very tricky.
However, the best chance for precipitation will be north of Conroe
through the mid morning, then transitioning to the I-10 corridor by
noon, and then closer to the coast in the late afternoon as the sea
breeze gets to interact with remnant outflow boundaries. The storms
that develop today will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall with rain rates of 1 to 2" per hour, hail, and strong to
even severe wind gusts. Coverage wanes by sunset, though could still
see some lingering coastal showers and storms into the overnight
hours.
The front that moves through the area will become more and more
diffuse as it does, but not totally wash out before stalling near
the coast through Tuesday (and beyond). So, expect additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the late morning to early
afternoon hours on Tuesday along the coast moving inland through the
late afternoon - though would be shocked if areas north of the
Houston Metro were able to get any meaningful rainfall on Tuesday.
There will be a bit of a high temperature gradient today from north
to south as the weak front pushes through the area. Areas north of
Conroe may only climb into the mid to upper 80s or near 90 degrees
today while areas along and south of I-10 get a bit more time in the
pre-frontal airmass/daytime heating thus getting into the mid 90s.
High temperatures on Tuesday will be more uniform with most of the
area getting into the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows tonight
will be in the low 70s for most of the region with the Houston Metro
and areas along the coast getting down into the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will generally be the same for the
majority of the area, but areas north of Huntsville may get a few
degrees cooler as they get some clearing skies with lows
potentially as cool as the mid to upper 60s.
FowlerYesterday was never really supposed to be the day for most of us. Today has always been the day. The HRRR looks promising for later this afternoon into the evening hours. Could be some hail producers with gusty winds if it verifies.
El Nino or otherwise, I remember several falls where we don't notice much improvement till late October or even November some years.
Yeah. Late this afternoon and into the evening hours look interesting.captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2023 2:46 pmIt's late to the party. Looks like heating was needed to reach convective temperature. Could be interesting later this afternoon as maximum instability takes place.