January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[wxman57]

We need to get something going Friday night into Saturday (in terms or moisture)

I think we've had quite enough rain in southwest Houston (Westbury) already. I measured 6.70" since 6am today. About 5" last month, too.

[jasons2k]

And I thought I scored with my measly .40" yesterday and 1.75" today for a total of 2.15"

[Snowman]

We need to get something going Friday night into Saturday (in terms or moisture)

I think we've had quite enough rain in southwest Houston (Westbury) already. I measured 6.70" since 6am today. About 5" last month, too.

Well we can certainly use some more rain in northwest harris county. Our rainfall totals were disappointing for this storm. Only .80 inches at my house in cypress

[Belmer]

I know some didn't see as much rain as we would have liked, but it put a dent in our drought. That's for sure! I'm liking how this new year has started and can only hope we stay in a wet pattern.

Now that today is pretty much over. Time to focus on this weekend. Sure is a tricky forecast. As much as it may look like just "cold rain", don't play any money on it. Things can change, which previous model runs earlier today looked just that. Though we'll see. Interesting how every thing keeps getting pushed back. A few days ago it was Thursday-Friday timeframe. Then Friday-Saturday timeframe. Now a Sunday-Monday timeframe.

Anyway, I'm on my phone so I'm not able to view much until I get home and get on my computer. What are the models/runs looking like right now? All I've seen were from late morning/early afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Andrew should be monitoring overnight. The 00Z NAM did suggest a progress 5H low with short wave energy diving S into the Great Basin behind it...

Oh, and Midland is @ 10.4 inches of snow and counting...

[wxman57]

Raining again here. Another .05" so far. Looks like the leading edge of the cold air.

[ticka1]

Andrew should be monitoring overnight. The 00Z NAM did suggest a progress 5H low with short wave energy diving S into the Great Basin behind it...

Oh, and Midland is @ 10.4 inches of snow and counting...

Srainhoutx - you finally going to get some rest and sleep tonight? I was up at 3:30 a.m. and you have been posting ever since!!!

GET SOME REST!

[Andrew]

Andrew should be monitoring overnight. The 00Z NAM did suggest a progress 5H low with short wave energy diving S into the Great Basin behind it...

I'll be here

NAM:

nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

Look at the ridge setting up over the pacific creating a large dive in the shortwave around California.

[srainhoutx]

Andrew should be monitoring overnight. The 00Z NAM did suggest a progress 5H low with short wave energy diving S into the Great Basin behind it...

Oh, and Midland is @ 10.4 inches of snow and counting...

Srainhoutx - you finally going to get some rest and sleep tonight? I was up at 3:30 a.m. and you have been posting ever since!!!

GET SOME REST!

No worries. I'm beat...

[MESOMAN]

Wow! 10.4 inches! If I could just get like 5 inches in Spring I would be good for years to come.

[skidog38]

i thought this low would be gone by now? more rain on the way? looks like it

[skidog38]

diving south?

[Andrew]

Well GFS shifts the trough up north a little farther west and south compared to previous runs. It also has it a little stronger compared to past runs but what happens after the trough shifts east two things happen. One the shortwave energy is farther east this run by a good bit which limits any moisture around here and two the ULL continues to stay in the pacific and pretty much stalls out there.

gfs_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif

gfs_namer_093_500_vort_ht.gif

[jasons2k]

It's not registering on radar, but I'm getting a steady light rain here again. It's nice for the weather to resemble Houston again

[redneckweather]

Wow! 10.4 inches! If I could just get like 5 inches in Spring I would be good for years to come.

No kidding!

[Andrew]

00z CMC is looking similar to the 00z GFS with keeping the ULL stationary for days out west in the pacific while the trough does look sharper the amount of shortwaves energy is dramatically decreased and shifted to the east giving relatively dry cold conditions for most of the south. Lets see if the Euro agrees.

[Andrew]

Euro continues the pattern that earlier models painted. The Euro shows the trough making its way through the area sometime between Thursday or Friday with little precipitation with the front or behind it. The euro continues to shear out the ULL over the pacific with a little piece of it finally ejecting east after hour 168. Most of the shortwave energy after the trough is pushed off to the east and stays around the ohio valley or to the north of it. The Euro keeps RH values around here in the 10-20% through 700mb and 850mb which would represent a bone dry atmosphere. The CMC on the other hand does have some more energy come down from the east of the Rockies and while the CMC does not actually produce any precip RH values are close to 100% in the 700mb range around central/ SE Texas. After that the CMC goes back to a more zonal pattern but in central Canada there is some serious energy and vorticity occurring around hour 240. If that could break off you could see some more cold weather later on in the month. The Euro is not as zonal and suggests a progressive pattern after this weekend's front. The GFS is similar to the CMC but has the shortwave energy off to the east of here but continues a zonal pattern after this weekend with a lot of activity up north in central Canada/ the artic. Now the models have been having trouble with this pattern lately (especially outside the 48 hour range). On top of everything we are currently under a sudden stratospheric warming with westerly winds reversing. This is throwing a huge "kink" in the models and is one of the reasons why we are getting so many different model runs. While we have seen some sort of loose agreement with the models tonight any shortwave energy the models are not picking up will be crucial down here. Keep an eye out and expect additional model swings with such a tricky pattern. Once again though I want to state how difficult of a pattern this is to predict and as we have seen models have been switching back and forth a lot. Look at the big picture for now and focus on the details as we get closer to actual events.

[Andrew]

Just to show the confusion models currently have look at the differences in NAO and AO values: (NAO is 12z AO is 00z from yesterday)

12zallnao.gif

00zallao.gif

[srainhoutx]

It is looking like a great forecast for the Olympic Trails Marathon on Saturday. Dry and cool conditions appear to be ahead. A strong Canadian front will pass Wednesday night/Thursday morning and should be well offshore mid day Thursday. The weak upper low well off California can be seen on water vapor imagery and should stay out of our hair allowing for near perfect conditions for the Marathon...

[tireman4]

Woo Hoo. Well, I am thinking it is Ryan Hall's to lose. Do not forget about Ritz or Meb, but I am thinking Hall.