May 2021:

[Scott747]

Sounds like they may start advisories this afternoon.

And it would likely be 'potential' cyclone advisories...

[don]

Up to 60% now.

2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[jasons2k]

Wxman 57:

I had figured NHC would go 50-70% for 91L at 18Z and they're 60%. They will almost certainly start PTC advisories at 4pm. Inland near Mataorda Bay by early tomorrow morning. Not much time.

[Texashawk]

Maybe time to change the thread name??

[Rip76]

Pretty decent rain bands coming through

Good one in Pearland right now.

[Stratton20]

Seems like models are delaying the landfall time until sometime Tomorrow morning instead of tonight

[mcheer23]

Maybe time to change the thread name??

If I had mod privilege's, I would go ahead and do that lol

[tireman4]

Well, I am not sure how..LOL

[TexasBreeze]

Go to the very first post in this thread and change the subject line.

[jasons2k]

The leading edge is almost here and it's starting to backbuild behind it to towards the Gulf.

The rain cometh...

Just ran outside and emptied 2.61" which was since Tuesday, or whenever I posted totals last. I'll have to go back later and add them up. But I've had over 5" in the last week. All the lowlands around our running trails are a swamp right now. Anything that falls at this point will just run off.

[Stratton20]

Can someone tell me what made the NHC raised formation chances to 60%? I understand the circulation has become better defined, but the lack of thunderstorms has me puzzled as it doesnt look like to me that its organizing?

[don]

Can someone tell me what made the NHC raised formation chances to 60%? I understand the circulation has become better defined, but the lack of thunderstorms has me puzzled as it doesnt look like to me that its organizing?

The NHC has designated tropical systems many times if an LLC has formed and winds meet the criteria, even if convection is displaced away from the center.(especially when close to land) Tropical storm Cindy of 2017 comes to mind as an example.

[jasons2k]

Can someone tell me what made the NHC raised formation chances to 60%? I understand the circulation has become better defined, but the lack of thunderstorms has me puzzled as it doesnt look like to me that its organizing?

A tropical depression is by definition a tropical cyclone, and the threshold is pretty low. That's the criteria for "formation." It's likely to achieve TD status, if it's not one already. The dry air, modest shear, short time over water, and relatively cool gulf waters will likely keep it from getting upgraded to a TS though.

[don]

I also thinks its probably already a Tropical Depression.

[sau27]

Looks like it’s starting to moisten up some of that dry air around the circulation.

[Stratton20]

Sau27 yeah noticed that, definitely look like the system is trying to moisten up around the center as well as cutting off that dry air into its circulation, we may be seeing a trend with storms starting to fill in on its eastern and southern side

[don]

Models seem to be underestimating rainfall coverage today,as they sometimes do with tropical cyclones (Tropical storm Beta of last year as an example) there's a lot more moisture moving in than models were showing today.

[Stratton20]

Im keeping my eye on the eastern side of this system, seems like the center is starting to get more moisture around it, have to watch to see if it develops any convection

[davidiowx]

Definitely has the features for a low end TD. Convection is getting cut off by shear as soon as any tries to form though. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, builds off Galveston Bay behind the line that is already pushing through Galveston and Brazoria County.

[davidiowx]

Rick Knabb seems to think convection won't grow any more than what is already there. May not have much rain out of this after all if that ends up happening.

Just looking at it throughout the day on satellite, I tend to agree with him as of now. Of course anything can change as time goes on.