Long range model discussion

[Cpv17]

CMC puts us in the ICE age lol thats a brutally cold run for se texas

Damn crazy uncle! Lol it could happen though in all seriousness.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 and then the GFS barely shows anything I think we know who is fighting a losing battle here in the model world lol

[TexasBreeze]

That's the thing the cold is too cold- makes it a dry cold.
Until the models agree and settle, moods on s2k will be very unsettled! They were happy yesterday then sad this morning there!

[Cpv17]

That's the thing the cold is too cold- makes it a dry cold.
Until the models agree and settle, moods on s2k will be very unsettled! They were happy yesterday then sad this morning there!

Give me temps in the mid to upper 20’s with snow vs temps in the teens with no snow. That’s for dang sure lol

[Pas_Bon]

This is interesting…

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/174331348 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Not real sure how to perceive this…

With all the meteorological extremes we have seen in the last, say, 10-20 years, not much would shock me, but seeing a forecast calling for temps to be
FIFTY to SEVENTY degrees lower than climatological average (especially in the Rockies) has me very leery about the accuracy of said modeling in this particular case.

[Cpv17]

This is interesting…

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/174331348 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Not real sure how to perceive this…

With all the meteorological extremes we have seen in the last, say, 10-20 years, not much would shock me, but seeing a forecast calling for temps to be
FIFTY to SEVENTY degrees lower than climatological average (especially in the Rockies) has me very leery about the accuracy of said modeling in this particular case.

I think in this case it could be a possibility if a lobe of the PV actually does head that direction. But I know what you mean. It’s hard to believe. Some of the model runs I’ve seen have had parts of MT approaching -80°F.

[Cpv17]

The 6z GFS has wintry precip all the way down to the RGV in about 10-11 days. Interesting run.

[DoctorMu]

Look for an ULL or coastal low around Jan 18 to pull a potential surprise if the cold air lingers.

[DoctorMu]

Canadian still being Canadian...

[Ptarmigan]

Canadian still being Canadian...

If that was to happen, that would be on par with January 1886 or January 1930 freeze.

[DoctorMu]

Props to CMC for hanging in there until the bitter end.

[Stratton20]

The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well

[Cpv17]

The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well

I’ve been trying to tell y’all this lol

[DoctorMu]

The 21-22nd is looking interesting on guidance as well

I’ve been trying to tell y’all this lol

Mexican s/w surprise?

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 oh no ive been seeing it, i just figured we keep it quiet until the first event is over lol

[Stratton20]

Really aggressive signal from the GEPS lol

[Harp1]

Really aggressive signal from the GEPS lol

For which region?

[Stratton20]

Harp1 Texas, but take it with a grain of salt, its 8-9 days out lol

[Stratton20]

Brief relaxation period after this , pattern looks to reload as the ridge reestablishes itself over alaska in the 11-16 day period, looks like end of january into all of February looks very cold

[Cpv17]

Brief relaxation period after this , pattern looks to reload as the ridge reestablishes itself over alaska in the 11-16 day period, looks like end of january into all of February looks very cold

I’m already looking forward to that. This current system is dead boring news to me already.