January 2025

[TexasBreeze]

Not sure of why the change in terminology. The previous was ok to use in my opinion, but it is what it is!

[kyzsl51]

I think its just a simplification of terminology to get the point across.

[Stormlover2020]

Pay attention to nam, hrr, rgem runs for temps to still how they compare

[user:null]

So far, doesn't look like much for SE Texas beyond cold rain in the upper 30s/40s. Even the coldest ICON and CMC models trended warmer. CMC's H5 pattern will not work for snow — maybe wintry mix returns at most.

NAM and HRRR don't show anything extraordinary.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Never was sold on this one, but I'll take the step down as we enter a very nice 4-6 week period of actual Winter.

[user:null]

Never was sold on this one, but I'll take the step down as we enter a very nice 4-6 week period of actual Winter.

But Joe Bastardi mentioned something about the EPO switch, which caused the cold feed to dissipate?

[DoctorMu]

Down from 75°F to 49°F and 25°F by dawn. NW25 G35 Not too bad. Going out for some exercise.

[txsnowmaker]

FWIW, MSN Weather shows rain and snow in Houston on Thursday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/hourl ... source=day

[DoctorMu]

Never was sold on this one, but I'll take the step down as we enter a very nice 4-6 week period of actual Winter.

But Joe Bastardi mentioned something about the EPO switch, which caused the cold feed to dissipate?

There's going to be that tongue of warm air in the mid-levels. GFS, CMC, ICON, Euro all have a mixed precip mess in central Texas.

[DoctorMu]

The Euro shows the Pacific tongue at 700 hPa (mid level) that could ruin our chances of snow. The low moves down Baja and dips its beak in the Pacific near Cabo.

Mixed rain, frz rain, sleet is my guess now for CLL. Maybe a few flakes on the tail end. We'll see.

[Cpv17]

FWIW, MSN Weather shows rain and snow in Houston on Thursday.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/hourl ... source=day

Lack of snowpack up north modified the cold air. Once we get a better snowpack that should allow for less modification. Ensembles are lining up for a big dagger right down the heart of the nation in a couple weeks with a better snowpack up north.

[DoctorMu]

Don is looking at 1-6 inches of snow.

For us - It's not a cold-pack problem as much as a warm Pacific air in the mid level problem. Look at the 70 hPa temp. runs across the models.

If there was frozen precip with a cold mid level, the surface would cool the 1-2°F it needed pretty fast...especially after 3 days of cold temps.

[Cpv17]

Don is looking at 1-6 inches of snow.

For us - It's not a cold-pack problem as much as a warm Pacific air in the mid level problem. Look at the 70 hPa temp. runs across the models.

If there was frozen precip with a cold mid level, the surface would cool the 1-2°F it needed pretty fast...especially after 3 days of cold temps.

The coastal low that’s expected to form will be too close to the coast. If it was further out in the Gulf we’d have a better chance.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Never was sold on this one, but I'll take the step down as we enter a very nice 4-6 week period of actual Winter.

But Joe Bastardi mentioned something about the EPO switch, which caused the cold feed to dissipate?

Yes there was a quick crater that allowed this front to modify. That has zero affect on the next several weeks

[Stratton20]

That 18z GEFS is something else, you dont often see that aggressive of a cold signal 14 days out , big big potential late month

[Stormlover2020]

Hrr is about 3-4 degrees colder than gfs and euro on Tuesday night

[tireman4]

Be aware tonight

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Still think some surprise icing could hit parts of the viewing area

[Stratton20]

00z NAM is very interesting

[Cpv17]

00z NAM is very interesting

The NAM nailed the December 2017 snow. I went back and read the 2017 winter thread earlier today on S2K. That was the last time I saw snow.