December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[Ptarmigan]

Wow - the radar just lit up like a christmas tree!

Very fitting. The Doppler radar is like a Christmas tree. Ho! Ho! Ho!

[svrwx0503]

Locally heavy rain threat looks to be on the increase across areas along and southeast of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line. The latest IR satellite imagery shows rapidly cooling cloud tops (cooler than -60 C) associated with increasing elevated convection across central sections of southeast Texas extending into the western and northwestern sections of Houston/Harris county. Additional showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms continue to stream NNE merging with the main area of rain across Matagorda and Wharton counties.

SPC mesoanalysis indicates that 110 kt + jet now coming to bear on the region which is really helping to induce strong lift and low level moisture feed into the developing system. Have already experienced 2''/hr+ rain rates with the heavier convection across the western side of Harris county and I would expect to see these type of rain rates become more common in the heavier showers over the next few hours.

[svrwx0503]

The area where the heaviest rainfall rates are most likely to occur over the next hour look to be across central Montgomery county where IR imagery indicates cloud tops have cooled to -68C over the past 30 min with increasing lightning strikes and convection. Lot's of light to moderate rain extending all the way back to the I-35 corridor...looks like a good soaking through the morning hours!

[Katdaddy]

Rain is pouring down with gusty winds in League City. No lightning but very heavy rains.

Now we have lightning. Picked up .48" in 10 minutes

[biggerbyte]

Lots of rain tonight. Porter has been hammered.

Now this is an event.

[djjordan]

Getting some steady downpours with lightning and thunder ...... this is just what the doctor ordered ...... I like it!!!!!

[Belmer]

Here in Pasadena. Wind was quiet scary earlier. Some of the strongest winds since IKE. Feared there might have been a tornado near by. It has calmed down a little now. Got a good soaker for about 30 minutes. I would say we've easily picked up .50+ inches of rain so far here on the SE side of Harris County. Loving the rain AND thunder.

[Katdaddy]

1.43" and a steady rain continuing across N Galveston County. A very messy rush hour ahead. Thankfully many people are alread off of work for the Christmas Holiday. Be safe out there this morning.

[srainhoutx]

It appears all areas saw some beneficial rains overnight and even some thunder as well as gusty winds as a coastal low developed about 30 miles offshore of Galveston. Rains should tapper off W to E by mid/late morning and quieter conditions should settle in before the arrival of a cold front late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

An upper low is sagging S into New Mexico this morning setting the stage for a Winter Storm in W Texas. The overnight guidance is in better agreement regarding wintery mischief, but some questions still remain. Austin/San Antonio is now mentioning a wintry mix for Friday night into Saturday for some Hill Country locations. The fly in the ointment is just how fast and how far W the H5 features become established. The trends have been to cut off an upper low over Old Mexico and eject disturbances in pieces before the main low moves E early next week. The other area of interest is any developing coastal trough/low Friday night into Saturday. Those with travel plans N and W of Houston should continue monitoring for further updates in this changeable forecast.

[ticka1]

Lightning too as I drove into work.

[wxman57]

Rain will be ending from west to east over the next few hours, then we'll have a break until early Saturday morning when the next upper-level impulse moves across Texas. That should result in a wave forming on the front in the Gulf. How much rain we get Saturday depends on how close to the coast the wave forms.

Models haven't changed much since yesterday. Only the Euro predicts any snow in Texas on Saturday, and only in west Texas. Too little moisture in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area by the time the temps aloft cool down. Nothing but rain indicated in San Antonio and Austin. GFS and Canadian are much drier, indicating only a bit of light rain along the mid to upper coast. NAM is similar to the Euro, indicating a bit of light snow out near Midland but nothing east of there.

So I'd say there might be a little snow out in west TX (Midland area) on Saturday. East of there would be cold rain. Heaviest precip would be along the coast closer to the frontal wave, where temps aloft support nothing but rain (that would include Houston).

[srainhoutx]

Special Weather Statements being issued for this Friday into Saturday to our W and N...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-222100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
708 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...A LIGHT MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TEXAS FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOME OF THE RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...OR GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL
RIO TO COMFORT TO GEORGETOWN LINE. DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO FALL AND GROUND TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING...NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
639 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-222200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
639 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MARKEDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OZONA...TO PAINT
ROCK...TO CROSS PLAINS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM
SWEETWATER...TO ROBERT LEE...TO MERTZON. LIGHT RAIN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING IN THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM. MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. RESIDENTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
448 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-222300-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...
RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...
MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...
MARATHON...SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
448 AM CST THU DEC 22 2011 /348 AM MST THU DEC 22 2011/

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FURTHER EXPANSION
INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY...JUST AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. LIFT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
COULD BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

THIS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH
INTO THE TRANS PECOS INCLUDING THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SO LOCATIONS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
COULD CHANGE. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY
BE ISSUED. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
INCLUDING ALTERNATE TRAVEL PLANS.

[srainhoutx]

Harris County Flood Control District rain gauges suggest a general 1 inch + with some locations receiving 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. As of yesterday, Harris County lifted the burn ban that has been in place since before the 4th of July.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

1.9 inches in Conroe at the house... Loving it.... I know its going to be too warm here to get any wintry weather, so let it pour on Christmas Eve...

I'm heading West and North to go and try to get a touch of wintry weather.

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting trends this morning via the 12Z WRF/NMM. That guidance is suggesting a bit stronger coastal low developing Saturday (Christmas Eve) and abundant moisture with over running precip for Coastal TX and inland into Central TX/SE TX and a bit closer to the TX Coast. That model also suggests a bit strong upper air feature crossing W and N Central TX as well.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is diving S through the Panhandle this morning as a potent winter storm drops S into New Mexico. Winds are gusting from the N/NW into the upper 20's-low 30's near Amarillo and clouds are spilling S as the front advances...

[djmike]

0.70" here in Beaumont! Can't complain! Looking forward to Saturdays rain!

[redneckweather]

I got absolutely pounded here at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam in Mongtomery County....I mean it was intense rainfall! I can't even remember how long it has been since I have seen rain come down that hard. My son accidentally (yeah right) shattered my rain gauge with his pellet gun so not quite sure how much we got here at the house but 2+ easy.


wxman, I was hoping for some better news on the snowfall chances across Texas Friday evening and into Saturday. I was planning on driving up towards Abilene/Big Spring area to see some accumulating snow but it doesn't look like it will be worth it? Maybe I should sit this one out also.

[jasons2k]

I had 1.68" here - best rain in a long time

[srainhoutx]

12Z 4kn NAM for hour 60 suggests snow in Midland/Odessa and perhaps nearing San Angelo...