Wx Infinity Forums

Meh this looks to be a non event for me, maybe next year

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:18 am Meh this looks to be a non event for me, maybe next year

Looking like the chances are better the further south you are..go figure I thought it would be the opposite

Yup, hoping for a surprise, but Im anticipating disappointment lol

Storm may over preform you never know..it could be colder then what the models are saying..it's all a guessing game till it falls from the sky

Kingwood36 thats a good point, we have seen some storm systems over performing in the past, ill keep some optimism that we will get something from this

Jeff said Matagorda Bay may go under a winter storm watch..hell I'm only 65 Mille from there..if they go then so should brazoria county

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:34 am Jeff said Matagorda Bay may go under a winter storm watch..hell I'm only 65 Mille from there..if they go then so should brazoria county

Jackson, Matagorda and Wharton counties will likely go under either a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory.

I just looked up NWS Beaumont which forecasts 30% freezing rain and then looked up Lake Charles forecast and they have 40-50% freezing wintry mix. How can they have a better chance? Im to the point its anyones guess on what will transpire. Although we have seen events over perform so I guess we will see as its falling.

mcheer23 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:37 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 9:34 am Jeff said Matagorda Bay may go under a winter storm watch..hell I'm only 65 Mille from there..if they go then so should brazoria county

Jackson, Matagorda and Wharton counties will likely go under either a Winter Storm Watch or Winter Weather Advisory.

They wouldn't include brazoria county in that?I don't see why it wouldn't

I'm off Galveston Bay they said Hurricane Nicholas wouldn't affect us until the last minute and we got wiped out around here.
I do believe we will see sleet. LOL.

Whenever you're dealing with a "noisy" sub tropical jet with disturbances coming out of Mexico.Due to a lack of data over there in the desert/mountains, theirs always the chance that the disturbances may be more vigorous than expected.I've seen that happen several times through the years.Its always a coin toss though when it comes to winter weather events down here.Sometimes they over perform and other times they under perform.We'll just have to continue to watch the trends.It will also be important to watch the temps during the day tomorrow,the colder they are during the afternoon before the sunsets and disturbances start moving through overnight, the greater the chances of frozen precip.Most winter events here tend to be nowcasting situations.

HGX

Can some explain to me why college station is in a higher chance for wintry precip when the model guidance keeps it south of here?

Wind Chill Watch in effect for Southern Texas

Starting to see higher precipitation percentage. Accuweather 85% at night.
Ive seen 1 forecast from date and time 1.5 inches snow.
All forecasts are all over the place.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:32 am I'm suprised they issued a special weather statement and said mainly from a line from Brenham to Conroe to the south..I figured it would be more towards the north not south

lol SOUTH of Hwy 1*5!

Some of those forecasts are computer generated, so be mindful. They can vary day to day, as well as hour to hour. They do not have a "human" element to them, as it were.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:41 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:32 am I'm suprised they issued a special weather statement and said mainly from a line from Brenham to Conroe to the south..I figured it would be more towards the north not south

lol SOUTH of Hwy 1*5!

I know! Screen shot this..we will NEVER see that again

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:42 am

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 10:41 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:32 am I'm suprised they issued a special weather statement and said mainly from a line from Brenham to Conroe to the south..I figured it would be more towards the north not south

lol SOUTH of Hwy 1*5!

I know! Screen shot this..we will NEVER see that again

Ironic, but not unprecedented. My prediction is a sleet event similar in coverage to the 2004 Christmas Eve snow miracle. It's my Avatar.

My kids had never seen snow before, and we drove down to Houston in anticipation. We were on Hwy 290 in NW Harris Co. when the snow began. By the time we got near my wife's brother's house off Gessner Rd. there was 3 in. of snow on the ground. A few blocks away the thermostat stuck on the Dodge minivan and the vehicle overheated! In the snow. Cracked the #1 cylinder and I cruised in neutral into the only service station that was open. We walked to their uncle's house from there through the snow. Massive flakes! After getting the van fixed, I traded it in 2 weeks later. True story!

Gotta love those dodge mini vans!