December: Warm Days & Cool-Foggy Nights To End 2011

[wxman57]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFCENT_12z/f51.gif

Six inches of snow near Midland?

12Z NAM forecasts 1-3" near Midland:

[wxman57]

Those "twister" site maps only depict accumulated snow, not total precip that falls. So it could be that more snow falls than accumulates, and snow falls outside the area where it shows accumulation. If the NAM does turn out to be correct, and if I lived near Austin, then I might look to the sky as the precip ends for a flake or two. But as for us here in Houston, it would truly take a miracle to get snow here, as the air aloft appears to be way too warm.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS remains a bit too dry in W TX and also seems a bit too progressive. It also suggests a weak cut off H5 hanging back in Old Mexico. The Canadian is also drier for N TX, but suggests a stronger upper level feature near El Paso. The Canadian is on the slow side ejecting the upper low and suggests clouds and over running precip lingers into Christmas Day for SE TX as a coastal trough/low develops near or just S of Corpus. The Canadian, if correct, would keep us in the clouds until mid next week and additional rains Monday night into Tuesday when the upper level low finally ejects ENE. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

I'm not an anti-weenie. First hints the roof needs replacing with recent rains, a nice golf ball sized hail event and paying just the deductible to replace would be sweet.

Not baseball, I can handle some dings on a paid off 90,000 mile Impala, but replacement glass is never as good. The office, I park in a multi-level garage, and can see the top (uncovered) floor of the garage. Baseballs at work might be interesting.

And I''d love to see a legitimate 50 knot wind gust.

lol...my roof was replaced in October from the July 26th hail event here in NW Harris County. Personally I saw enough with that event to make me glad it doesn't happen like that down here all that often. Hail damage to A/C units, pool equipment, window screens ect...yikes...

[srainhoutx]

HPC says toss the GFS. Strong outlier. NAM/Euro blend is the current thinking prior to the 12Z Canadian/Euro evaluation via the model dignostic discussion.

[ticka1]

Can anyone give me a forecast for what the weather will be like near College Station Friday night around 7/8 o'clock?

[srainhoutx]

Confidence grows concerning wintry weather in W TX via the 12Z Euro. That model has made some changes today suggesting a strong upper air feature across W TX and a bit quicker ejection of the upper level trough throughout the Holiday Weekend. It appears borderline for parts of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and N TX appears to escape the wintry threat altogether.

For S Central and SE TX, chilly conditions with over running precip looks likely beginning late on Friday continuing on into Christmas morning as a coastal low/trough develops offshore of Corpus Christi.

[srainhoutx]

And with that, the HPC says not so fast re: Model Diagnostic Discussions...

...TROF PUSHING SWD THRU THE GRT BASIN/ROCKIES INTO THE SRN HI
PLNS...
MDLS ARE SIMILAR WITH DROPG ENERGY THRU THE ROCKIES INTO THE SWRN
U.S....THEN ALLOWING SOME ENERGY TO SHEAR NEWD AND PHASE WITH
ENERGY DIGG INTO THE GRT LKS ON DAY 3. MDLS ARE SHOWING VARIED
SOLUS AT 5H WITH THE NAM THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A 5H CENTER
INTO THE SRN PLNS...ECMWF SHOWING THE SAME CENTER OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE CAN/UKMET/GFS SHOWS THE MAIN CLOSED LOW
REMAINING OVER NRN MEXICO. WOULD LIKE TO REMOVE THE NAM FM THE MIX
DUE TO IT BEING A STG OUTLIER...ALSO THINK THE ECMWF MIGHT BE TOO
FAR NE WITH THE CLOSED LOW...MOSTLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THESE SYS
CONT TO DEVELOP OVER SRN AZ/NRN MEX REGION THE PAST MONTH OR SO
AND THE LRG SCALE PTRN HAS NOT CHANGED. THEY THEN HAVE BEEN
TENDING TO ONLY SLOWLY LIFT NEWD INTO THE SRN PLNS. ALSO...THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/NAM 5H SOLUS DO NOT FIT THE LATEST ECMWF/GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN PTRN THRU THIS REGION.

[wxman57]

Can anyone give me a forecast for what the weather will be like near College Station Friday night around 7/8 o'clock?

Cloudy with a temperature around 50-52 degrees. Light NNE wind.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Haha, the NAM just keeps on churning out more moisture and colder temps with each run.

The 18Z NAM would be a dream come true for many.

[hlewis]

Hello again being out of the loop, i kindly ask you the chance of snow/wintery precip for SE Texas this weekend? do we have any type of chance at a white christmas??

[srainhoutx]

Rare afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Widespread wetting rains overnight with another chance of widespread rainfall this weekend.

Highly active split flow pattern continues to bring welcomed rains to TX helping with the ongoing exceptional drought. Overnight rainfall averaged 1-2 inches across nearly all of SE TX per radar and actual ground truth gage reports. Combination of Tuesday morning rains and last night rains have lead to rises on area watersheds not control by urban run-off suggesting that water is once again flowing in some of the creeks and rivers that feed our lakes and water supply.

Clouds have been slow to break up/erode from the west over much of the area today as moisture is trapped near the surface. Visible images show a slow wet to east erosion in the deck with sunny skies currently west of a line from College Station to Victoria. Slow clearing is likely this evening reaching I-45 by sunset.

Cold front over NW TX is clearly noted on the visible images as leading edge of thick stratus cloud deck expanding southward. Front should move southward across the region tonight as the next storm system over the four corners currently digs south in S AZ/N MX. Increasing northerly winds into Friday as the surface cold high pressure moves southward down the plains and into TX while aloft SW flow will develop with increasing clouds atop surface cold dome. Upper level storm digging into MX will help position the sub-tropical jet back toward TX by late Friday while at the surface another coastal trough/low begins to develop off the lower/middle TX coast. Combination of above mentioned features will result in another period of overrunning clouds/rainfall similar to the early Thursday morning event (minus the thunder and heavy rainfall). Temperatures will be colder also, but not cold enough for any but liquid across all of SE TX. Some chances for snow over W TX and possibly into the hill Country late Friday into Saturday, but amounts look to be on the light side given meager moisture that far north and west.

Clouds will lower and thicken Friday afternoon as Gulf air mass is forced up and over the surface cold dome by the developing coastal trough and sub-tropical jet aloft. Expect periods of light to moderate rainfall to develop and spread NNE to NE across the region starting early Saturday morning and continuing into Saturday night. NE surface winds, rain, and clouds will hold temperatures nearly steady in the 40’s on Saturday.

May see rainfall linger into early Sunday especially near the coast as the upper trough lags back over MX into early next week. Cold conditions will continue into Christmas Day with lows in the 40’s and highs in the lower 50’s under cloudy and mostly cloudy skies by afternoon.

Rainfall amounts Fri PM-Sun AM will average a widespread .25-.75 of an inch with a few isolated amounts of 1.0-1.5 inches especially near the coast. Current forecast models suggest this coastal low event will be displaced slightly more offshore and the heaviest rains will be closer to the coast and offshore compared to the Thursday AM storm. Will take what we can get as the wet pattern of late looks to be ending next week with more zonal flow aloft and closing of the southern US storm track.

[unome]

Can anyone give me a forecast for what the weather will be like near College Station Friday night around 7/8 o'clock?

you can get your local Hourly Weather Forecast Graph on NWS by choosing the "hourly weather graph" link under - the graph choices are editable, this one has all available options for College Station:



you can also get an hourly "tabular forecast" http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... pe=digital

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa issues Winter Storm Watches for the Guadalupe Mountians/Davis Mountains and the higher terrain along I-20 and I-10 including Midalnd/Odessa and Big Springs.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-230600-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
322 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS TOMORROW ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO
VALLEY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY
TOMORROW NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM SONORA...TO EDEN...TO BROWNWOOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM OZONA...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SWEETWATER. ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM. MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW
COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
RESIDENTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

TXZ021>044-230530-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
TULIA...SILVERTON...QUITAQUE...MEMPHIS...TURKEY...CHILDRESS...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...
MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...
LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...
SPUR...GUTHRIE...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...TAHOKA...
ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
320 PM CST THU DEC 22 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WEST TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE AREA THAT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL COULD POSSIBLY
BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO THREE INCHES.
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION WITH ANY POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS OR
ADVISORIES.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting discussion from San Angelo explaining all the uncertainties regard this complex and evolving situation...

.LONG TERM...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS WEST TEXAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY THEN TOWARDS NORTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MUCH FASTER TRACK OF
THIS AFOREMENTIONED LOW...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS
PRECIPITATION. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED
IN THIS FORECAST...WITH MOST OF THE GRIDS FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF/NAM.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...LIFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AND FORECAST 850/700MB TEMPERATURES...BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER TO THE EAST...FROM ABILENE...TO SAN
ANGELO...TO OZONA...AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION...WITH PREDOMINATELY SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE
HEARTLAND...WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND INCH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF AN OZONA...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SWEETWATER
LINE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN HEARTLAND. AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN HEARTLAND. AN
ADDITIONAL 1...TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AFTER
12Z...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF AN OZONA...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
SWEETWATER LINE. AS THE LOW TREKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY...AND HAVE ADDED LIGHT SNOW TO THE GRIDS...WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION ENDING BY 06 SUNDAY. THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION...TO NEAR 40 AT JUNCTION AND
HASKELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY IS FORECAST ON MONDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW KICKS OUT ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOW WARM UP WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1
AND 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...BIG COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ON
FUTURE SHIFTS. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY TYPE OF
WATCH OR ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FUTURE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN
ANGELO...AS WINTER WEATHER MAY AFFECT HOLIDAY PLANS AND TRAVEL THIS
WEEKEND.

[JackCruz]

Since our "wet pattern" is about to come to an end next week...what is going to happen next?

[srainhoutx]

Since our "wet pattern" is about to come to an end next week...what is going to happen next?

Cool days and cold nights with a NW flow aloft. A lot will depend on what happen over the Holiday Weekend. If we see a stronger more wintry event closer to SE TX to our N and W, then temps may need to be adjusted a bit.

Interesting discussion from Dallas/Ft Worth. I think we can all see this situation is still rather uncertain and evolving...

LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SLOWLY GRIND SOUTHWARD...REACHING
EL PASO AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SOME LINGERING
INCONSISTENCIES AMONG THE MODELS THEREAFTER...A CONSENSUS REMAINS.
BUT UNLIKE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE INITIAL
SPOKE OF ENERGY TO BEHAVE MORE LIKE A CUT-OFF. ALTHOUGH AN OUTLIER
YESTERDAY...THE NAM HAS APPROPRIATELY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FIRST IMPULSE.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL ENSUE IN WESTERN ZONES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED...BUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD OCCUR BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. AS THE LIFT
EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA...LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WOULD
SPREAD EASTWARD. HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN/SNOW LINE GENERALLY WEST
OF THE METROPLEX. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TEMP/TD FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING AND THE LARGELY UNSATURATED PROFILE ALOFT...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING ELSEWHERE. BUT WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THIS EFFECT WOULD BE MINIMAL. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND RATHER MEAGER LIFT...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT. WHERE SNOW IS FORECAST...THE COLUMN IS SUB-
FREEZING...BUT THE BULK OF THE LIFT IS BENEATH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AS SUCH...CURRENT THINKING WOULD PUT ONE-INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN ZONES ON THE UPPER END OF LIKELY
OUTCOMES. LIFT WILL LIKELY EXHAUST LATE CHRISTMAS EVE...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A SLOWER EASTWARD EXIT OF PRECIP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

CURRENTLY...THE DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY
MORNING MIGHT IMPLY THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IF NOT
SNOW...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
PROFILES THE PRECIP ENCOUNTERS. AS SUCH...A FLAKE OF SNOW CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

[JackCruz]

Cool days and cold nights with a NW flow aloft. A lot will depend on what happen over the Holiday Weekend. If we see a stronger more wintry event closer to SE TX to our N and W, then temps may need to be adjusted a bit.

Exciting