Re: May 2021:
Posted: Sat May 22, 2021 12:26 am
Yeah definitely need to keep an eye on those feeder banda for sure
Lol right! It looks like some rains will be moving in later today though. A lot of moisture offshore and we will see what the sun can do to help.
Greatest moisture values are displaced well east and southeast of the primary low - that’ll be dragged in over the next few days. It may not be widespread and could focus southwest of the Metro... but greater coverage than today. Technically, isn’t a tropical system.
But, when it comes to rainfall production and efficiency, there are some differences. That was my only note.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:28 am I call a spade a spade. Technically it didn't get the official upgrade by the NHC but that's splitting hairs. That thing wound-up before landfall. They could have designated it and nobody would have disagreed on the merits. Meteorologically speaking, this is no different than any other landfalling weak TD.
But the difference is because a boatload of dry-air mixed-in, not because the NHC held-off on the designation, right?weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:34 amBut, when it comes to rainfall production and efficiency, there are some differences. That was my only note.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:28 am I call a spade a spade. Technically it didn't get the official upgrade by the NHC but that's splitting hairs. That thing wound-up before landfall. They could have designated it and nobody would have disagreed on the merits. Meteorologically speaking, this is no different than any other landfalling weak TD.![]()
I’m not just referring to the national hurricane center and the lack of an upgrade. Structurally, this system remains a bit different regardless of dry air ingestion; Distribution of impacts,. The national hurricane center has an amazing group of meteorologists and upgrades and downgrades are made off of data.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:51 amBut the difference is because a boatload of dry-air mixed-in, not because the NHC held-off on the designation, right?weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:34 amBut, when it comes to rainfall production and efficiency, there are some differences. That was my only note.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:28 am I call a spade a spade. Technically it didn't get the official upgrade by the NHC but that's splitting hairs. That thing wound-up before landfall. They could have designated it and nobody would have disagreed on the merits. Meteorologically speaking, this is no different than any other landfalling weak TD.![]()
From a physics and meteorological standpoint, how is this different than a 'designated' system that has entrained a ton of dry air and is basically falling apart at landfall? This thing will bring more rain to Texas than TS Don did. It has more efficient rainfall production now than TS Don did during its last advisory. Not a great comparison because there is no doubt that TS Don was indeed officially a designated tropical cyclone out over the Gulf....but I use it to illustrate that the NHC's designation of something doesn't always accurately align 100% with what is happening from a meteorological standpoint. That's why we have post-analysis. That's why Josh Morgerman did a fantastic research paper concluding that TS Don was no longer a TS well before the NHC officially dropped the designation.
If the NHC had designated this system as TD on the landfalling advisory as TD#2 I don't think we'd be having this debate at all. I don't think you'd see any pro-mets wringing their fists saying "that's not a TD!" I know Bastardi wouldn't be in this case. We'd be simply discussing how the dry air, shear and cool waters prevented this "TD#2" from getting upgraded to Bill.
I see what you're saying now. And I was more focused on the short-term and what is happening now. I think a case could be made either way. Is it on the cusp of having a true 'warm core' versus not, etc. - I think it's still debatable. When I look at current obs, satellite, radar - to me - that feature is not a typical mid-latitude MCS or MCV or anything like that.....it's a dying tropical cyclone.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 11:02 amI’m not just referring to the national hurricane center and the lack of an upgrade. Structurally, this system remains a bit different regardless of dry air ingestion; Distribution of impacts,. The national hurricane center has an amazing group of meteorologists and upgrades and downgrades are made off of data.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:51 amBut the difference is because a boatload of dry-air mixed-in, not because the NHC held-off on the designation, right?weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 10:34 am
But, when it comes to rainfall production and efficiency, there are some differences. That was my only note.![]()
From a physics and meteorological standpoint, how is this different than a 'designated' system that has entrained a ton of dry air and is basically falling apart at landfall? This thing will bring more rain to Texas than TS Don did. It has more efficient rainfall production now than TS Don did during its last advisory. Not a great comparison because there is no doubt that TS Don was indeed officially a designated tropical cyclone out over the Gulf....but I use it to illustrate that the NHC's designation of something doesn't always accurately align 100% with what is happening from a meteorological standpoint. That's why we have post-analysis. That's why Josh Morgerman did a fantastic research paper concluding that TS Don was no longer a TS well before the NHC officially dropped the designation.
If the NHC had designated this system as TD on the landfalling advisory as TD#2 I don't think we'd be having this debate at all. I don't think you'd see any pro-mets wringing their fists saying "that's not a TD!" I know Bastardi wouldn't be in this case. We'd be simply discussing how the dry air, shear and cool waters prevented this "TD#2" from getting upgraded to Bill.
I’m saying that this “is not the only place on Earth” where you’ll be rainless on the east side of a landfalling tropical system. Haha. I’n only pointing out that there are some reasons why more rain can be expected over the next few days... partially because of structural differences between a true tropical system and this one.
this - thank youweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 11:02 am I’m not just referring to the national hurricane center and the lack of an upgrade. Structurally, this system remains a bit different regardless of dry air ingestion; Distribution of impacts,. The national hurricane center has an amazing group of meteorologists and upgrades and downgrades are made off of data.
This is true, but even they admit they don't always get it right in real-time. That's why we have post-analysis.unome wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 2:58 pmthis - thank youweatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 11:02 am I’m not just referring to the national hurricane center and the lack of an upgrade. Structurally, this system remains a bit different regardless of dry air ingestion; Distribution of impacts,. The national hurricane center has an amazing group of meteorologists and upgrades and downgrades are made off of data.![]()