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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:22 am

txbear wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:57 am

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:07 pm

Literally just stole the words right out of my mouth. Our weather here is wack. It used to not be like this. And my intuition is telling me that the water hose has turned off and we’re about to enter one long hot and dry pattern.

Out of sheer curiosity, for the uninitiated (myself having lived here until a handful of years ago), what did it used to be like?

The renormed NWS averages are a clue. We're slightly over 1°F warmer and with more rain, and higher variance with rain. More tropical influenced weather.

Appreciate the context. So basically a touch warmer (still muggy as all get out) and more rain but over abundance vs. none at all rather than consistent.

Prior to the Houston area, my formative and post-college years were had from the western expanses of this state to the I-35 corridor. Growing up I remember it'd get hot, not a lot of rain except for when the dryline was active or troughs just happen to set up. But it'd cool off somewhat tolerably as the sun waned. August and September football were scorchers, but it really was a drier heat. Somewhat similar on the rain out there, but obviously on a much lesser scale and actually less rain and higher variance with rain.

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:05 pm Big uptake in support of tc development on the 12z Euro ensembles.

It would have to go in around Matagorda or south of there for most of southeast TX to see anything if it’s going to be east weighted.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:02 pm Harveyvallison wouldnt a stronger atorm tend to move more westward or Northwestward?

In this situation yes! A stronger more organized system would feel the ridge more moving NNW ! If this is weaker you’ll see reformations of the center to the north east.

I think track could be anywhere from the Mexico Texas border to lake Charles ! Can’t really narrow down track and intensity till we have a named storm.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:36 pm

don wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:05 pm Big uptake in support of tc development on the 12z Euro ensembles.

It would have to go in around Matagorda or south of there for most of southeast TX to see anything if it’s going to be east weighted.

That’s if it’s east-weighted

Have a small cell nearby. If we don't get a popcorn shower today or tomorrow, it could be dry through at least Friday.

Really nice rain west of us but moving west. Any chance new cells build in further east?

Looking like the heavier rainfall will be confined to locations E of Metro Houston from whatever becomes of 92L...

That looks like it includes the city of houston though( cant fully tell but its really close), granted I dont even know how accurate these charts are as I dont see many people posting them, we will see how this evolves, what an absolutely challenging forecast ahead

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:32 pm Looking like the heavier rainfall will be confined to locations E of Metro Houston from whatever becomes of 92L...

Galveston will take it.

Here is the latest from our HGX NWS regarding 92L

By Friday, our attention moves to the tropics. There is currently a
broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche which has
potential for tropical development in the next few days. This system
will meander around for the next few days before moving northwards
into the Central Gulf by Friday. While sea surface temperatures will
be favorable for tropical development, upper level shear will be
fairly high across the northern Gulf by the end of this week. So,
expect tropical development to be slow, if it occurs at all. As of
right now, the system (whether it is tropical or not) is expected to
approach the Lousiana coastline late Friday into Saturday afternoon
keeping the bulk of the moisture associated with it to east of
Southeast Texas. It is too early to talk about local impacts with
any high certainty, but the one impact we do have a bit of higher
certainty with is the increasing threat of rip currents starting as
early as Thursday. So, if you are planning on going down to the
beach to escape the heat, please pay attention to the beach
conditions for the day and to swim near a lifeguard. There is still
uncertainty on where, when, and even if a system will form, so
continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days.

Next...

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 4:54 pmNext...

I agree.

Im having a interesting conversation with Abc13 Travis Herzog on his facebook page regarding the system, he seems to believe that the GFS is trying to kill off the BOC system and form a new one from the tropical wave in the Caribbean but doesn't believe this is a realistic outcome, also says that the GFS has a bis of bias in terms of moving these system “too much “ Northeast” so what I am getting at this is that the GFS might not actually know what it wants to do with this system which would only make this forecast even harder

I think we can go ahead and assume this will be LA problem

Kingwood36 Assuming is never a good idea , never ever assume anything, especially since nothings formed yet. Until we see this system take a more Northeast turn away from us we are not oit of the woods

Especially us in Beaumont. Not at all safe yet to call this a LA storm. Plenty of days remain and watch, models will shift back again to TX. Windshield wiper effect. Id say anywhere from Corpus to New Orleans is at play. Possibly even further east.

The shear will be too much for 92L to overcome. This will be a slopfest with center reformations on the NE side, towards the convection.

Jasons2k Again like I said, we cant make any assumptions aboit this system, including wind shear, we hVe seen systems overcome wind shear before, not saying that will be the case with this system, but still we cant assume anything until we are certain it wont be a threat to us

Got a brief shower and 0.1 of an inch.

Excepting nada from 92L.