June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[srainhoutx]

HGX is a bit more hopeful today. Visible imagery does suggest an expanding CU field to our N and E as well as Central Texas. Just perhaps with more availble moisture today and tomorrow we can manage to squeeze out a storm or two. Fingers crossed.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1211 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

.AVIATION...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE ONGOING TAFS. WILL BE WATCHING E/NE PARTS OF
SE TX THIS AFTN FOR SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT AS DAYTIME HEATING
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WORK
THEIR MAGIC. HARD TO PIN POINT ONE AREA OVER ANOTHER BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-10 SHOULD BE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
INVERTED V SIGNATURE SO STRONGER STORMS COULD PUT OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP MSTR HANGING AROUND ON THURSDAY
AND SHRAS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SCATTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING.

[weatherguy425]

Kind of depressing going from what we were hoping a few days ago to maybe a storm or two over the next few days. However, models are acting like they want to being the low back down south of the DFW by Thursday evening. Also, the GFS is showing more of a rain threat from the gulf on Saturday, kind of agreeing with the 12z NAM in that respect.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro caved to the GFS... Who knows what tomorrow will bring in model world. These mid levels lows that meander are a forecasting nightmare...

HPC:

...UPPER LOWS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: GFS/UKMET
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS IN THE NAM WHICH IS AMONGST THE FASTEST TO
PULL THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A AMPLIFYING RIDGE/HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN U.S....WEAKENING THE UPPER LOW NOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ITS ENERGY DROPPING TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THE NAM MAINTAINS A MORE DEFINED UPPER LOW ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOW SHOWING TRENDS TOWARD
THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS OF SHEARING MORE ENERGY TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...RATHER THAN
MAINTAINING THE COMPACT WELL-DEFINED CENTER THAT THE 00Z RUN
CARRIED INTO ARKANSAS.

Edit to add: storms are developing in Liberty County. The CU field draped along the outflow boundary (SW sagging frontal boundary) to our N and E is beginning to fire with the heat of the day and higher dewpoint. Also of note the mid level low is starting its slow trek ESE from the TX/OK Panhandle and strong storms with very heavy rainfall are just W of the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

TXZ179-062115-
POLK TX-
323 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON OR
JUST WEST OF SEGNO. THIS STORM WAS JUST DEVELOPING AND IS
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY....BUT EXPANDING IS SIZE.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
POLK COUNTY AND IN THE SEGNO AREA.

[srainhoutx]

A bit closer examination of satellite and radar imagery suggest the mid level low is sagging ESE along the creeping frontal boundary.

[jasons2k]

This is like watching an overtime football game - I almost can't bear to.

[srainhoutx]

SAN JANCINTO TX-POLK TX-TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-
HOUSTON TX-
544 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAN JANCINTO...POLK...TRINITY...
NORTHEASTERN WALKER...NORTH CENTRAL CHAMBERS...LIBERTY AND HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS TRACKING
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE LAKE
LIVINGSTON REGION.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...CROCKETT...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...LIVINGSTON...TRINITY...
SHEPHERD...CORRIGAN...GRAPELAND...ONALASKA...GROVETON...DAISETTA...
AMES...HARDIN...COLDSPRING...KENEFICK...LOVELADY...RIVERSIDE...
POINT BLANK AND DEVERS.

[jasons2k]

I don't want to jinx it, but that outflow line is getting close. It's hitting Cleveland now....still hot outside....moving pretty fast...cloud tops are crisp....you know, I think it just mi.....NOPE, I need to stop right here before I say something I regret later.

-- I can already see it now. The outflow boundary is moving so fast, the storms are going-up in little waves. It's not a solid squall line. Some places get a big storm while other areas get hardly a drop. So, I'll probably get caught right in-between two big cells as the whole thing rushes right past me. Any takers on that bet?

[weatherguy425]

I can see some towering CU now beginning to develop along the seabreeze to my southwest. The outflow boundary also has tons of healthy CU and Cumulonimbus growth along it to my northeast. Could be an interesting interaction over the next hour or two...

[txflagwaver]

OK..gonna wait to water...with my fingers crossed

[jasons2k]

I only need to wait about 45 minutes to find out, so I'm waiting as well, fingers and toes crossed

[CAK]

And it's done... watch the radar, lack of heating killing this thing fast. Looks like it's retrograding back East.

[srainhoutx]

WWUS84 KHGX 062345
SPSHGX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 641 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

TXZ163-164-177>179-200-070045-
SAN JANCINTO TX-POLK TX-TRINITY TX-WALKER TX-LIBERTY TX-HOUSTON TX-
641 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAN JACINTO...POLK...TRINITY...
EASTERN WALKER...LIBERTY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELKHART
TO 11 MILES EAST OF HUNTSVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF DAISETTA...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRAPELAND TO OAKHURST TO AROUND 10
MILES NORTH OF DAYTON LAKES...AND DRIFTING WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...CROCKETT...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...LIVINGSTON...TRINITY...
SHEPHERD...CORRIGAN...GRAPELAND...ONALASKA...GROVETON...DAISETTA...
AMES...HARDIN...COLDSPRING...KENEFICK...LOVELADY...RIVERSIDE...
POINT BLANK AND DEVERS.

[jasons2k]

Outflow just blew by here - dark clouds above me too. I can't see 'out' so it's hard to tell but maybe, just maybe, a tower is going-up right above me...

[srainhoutx]

I may have heard thunder...

Yep. Nice TCU over your way with a great view from my back yard. Sea breeze just went past on the W side of Harris County. Hoping tomorrow will be a better day for those of us that need rain...~sigh~

[jasons2k]

It's trying to get going south of me towards the airport and merge with that cell towards Ed. Unfortunately for me, that's the wrong direction - it blew by me again. About to turn the sprinklers on.

[srainhoutx]

WWUS84 KHGX 070019
SPSHGX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 718 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

TXZ176-070100-
MADISON TX-
718 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF MADISONVILLE...
MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTY.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is the mid level low is dropping SE now and is just NW of Abilene. With boundaries around perhaps we can see a bit more wide spread action as the sea breeze kicks in tomorrow and frontal boundary sags a bit closer to us. Fingers crossed.

[jasons2k]

Wow - massive multi-cell storm to my south, southwest, and west. I am about 5 miles too far NE to get anything now. Skipped right over me again - hopefully tomorrow will be better.

Update - and it just started to sprinkle as the storm expanded some, but at the same time the eastern side is collapsing and falling apart. Painfully close.

[singlemom]

It's sitting and pouring right on top of my house near 45 and Splash Town. For all the times a storm has come upon my street and done a U-Turn, I'll take it.