We had a heat index of 109°F yesterday. Today's prediction of a 104°F heat index I think is a bit low.
Stay cool and the usual.
Just a few tenths of an inch of rain through the end of July per GFS
Hoping for a tropical gyre or lemon...nothing big or intense
Not sure if the underpinnings of the 10 year drought or even CC are raising a ghostly hand. After this week the upper level ridge appears to be centered around OK/Kansas...we might get lucky with some underside East-West flow. We'll see.
For now boring, hot, and high on the sprinkler system index.
July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 972
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
The Ridge is just not going to weaken or go far enough away to provide relief for the rest of the month and probably August too IMO. It is the Texas Summer pattern of recent years.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19673
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
The morning Updated GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs suggest heights rising across SE Canada as the Upper Ridge shifts a bit East in the longer ranger toward the end of July. It is also noteworthy that pressures begin to lower across the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sea during this timeframe and some of the Analog date/years suggest the potential of the Tropics becoming a bit active in the Western Atlantic Basin as compared with past years with a somewhat similar upper air pattern. I will not be surprised to see some increase in the rainfall potential, particularly along and S of I-10 as we fall beneath the Upper Ridge and an Easterly flow becomes established with perhaps less in the way of subsidence and African dust.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5271
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 151140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings have developed across parts of the
Brazos Valley early this morning and extend as far south as the
northern fringes of the Houston metro. Expect these ceilings to
persist through mid-morning before lifting/breaking up with
daytime heating with SCT-BKN VFR cumulus possible during the
afternoon. With Southeast Texas sitting on the eastern periphery
of an upper ridge and deeper moisture well to the east of the
terminals, think any SHRA that are able to develop today will be
too limited in coverage to include mention in the TAFs attm.
Otherwise, expect sustained southerly winds less than 12 knots
through the period (with a few isolated gusts approaching 20 knots
later this afternoon).
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Continued hot through the weekend and week but rain chances are
back though slim. Upper disturbance with storm cloud debris
moving down through LA and has pushed outflow into KPOE and
nearing KLCH which will have to watch to see if flow aloft could
steer any of this further SW into SETX. Have raised pops in the
east to account this slim probability with heating today may see
isolated storms mainly east of the I-45 corridor. Rain chances
increase Saturday and continue Sunday then start tapering down to
just the southern areas as upper ridging really firms up across
the northern CWA Mon-Thu so will be confining 20 pops or less to
the south as diurnally driven shra/tsra. Models prog 597-601dm
ridging firmly entrenched over KS/OK Mon-Fri drifting slowly west
next weekend.
Heat is on and yesterday had a few sites heat index cross the 108
mark. CLL hit 99 for a high temp. Today the models show a more
shallow ll moisture layer and hence we `should` end up drier
during the deep mixing this afternoon with peak heating. We could
also have some cloud cover from LA blow off this morning and again
possible with storms over LA this afternoon which would help to
lower temps below current forecast highs. CLL area may hit the 100
degree high temperature mark today though as cloud cover should be
lacking there this afternoon. So don`t expect heat index readings
above 107 today but moisture increases Saturday and depth does as
well and so heat index readings across the southern half of the
region will likely remain in the 104-107 throughout much of the
afternoon (barring rain cooling). Sunday more moisture and
continued hot July sun will probably push the heat index readings
up into the 108-110 degree range over the south. Then as drier air
thanks to the ridging mixes in Mon-Thu expect the heat index
numbers to come down a few degrees.
Saharan dust still over the area today but it should be thinning
noticeably by afternoon...will probably still have that hazy/brown
horizon but the air clarity should be improving throughout the
day. Next plume should thin and track into Mexico with little if
any impact here.
Drying has been going on for the last 30-45 days and soils and
vegetation showing it. Currently just one county (Grimes) with a
burn ban but through the next 7 days expect little if any drought
relieving rainfall to occur over the northern half of the region.
Texas Forest Service indicating KBDI to climb from the 400-630
range currently to 600-720 by the end of the month. The eastern
part of the state will likely be moving into a more wildfire prone
period.
45
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to persist
through the weekend with high pressure over the eastern
Gulf/southeastern CONUS and lee troughing over the High Plains.
Winds will gradually become easterly at the beginning of next week
and persist through late week as the surface high over the
southeastern CONUS builds west. A few showers will also be possible
across the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours
over the next few days. Otherwise, tide levels within one half foot
of normal are expected through the weekend and increasing to
slightly above normal next week as easterly flow becomes established
with no significant impacts anticipated.
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 76 98 77 98 / 10 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 98 78 96 79 97 / 10 0 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 92 82 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
FXUS64 KHGX 151140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016
.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings have developed across parts of the
Brazos Valley early this morning and extend as far south as the
northern fringes of the Houston metro. Expect these ceilings to
persist through mid-morning before lifting/breaking up with
daytime heating with SCT-BKN VFR cumulus possible during the
afternoon. With Southeast Texas sitting on the eastern periphery
of an upper ridge and deeper moisture well to the east of the
terminals, think any SHRA that are able to develop today will be
too limited in coverage to include mention in the TAFs attm.
Otherwise, expect sustained southerly winds less than 12 knots
through the period (with a few isolated gusts approaching 20 knots
later this afternoon).
Huffman
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Continued hot through the weekend and week but rain chances are
back though slim. Upper disturbance with storm cloud debris
moving down through LA and has pushed outflow into KPOE and
nearing KLCH which will have to watch to see if flow aloft could
steer any of this further SW into SETX. Have raised pops in the
east to account this slim probability with heating today may see
isolated storms mainly east of the I-45 corridor. Rain chances
increase Saturday and continue Sunday then start tapering down to
just the southern areas as upper ridging really firms up across
the northern CWA Mon-Thu so will be confining 20 pops or less to
the south as diurnally driven shra/tsra. Models prog 597-601dm
ridging firmly entrenched over KS/OK Mon-Fri drifting slowly west
next weekend.
Heat is on and yesterday had a few sites heat index cross the 108
mark. CLL hit 99 for a high temp. Today the models show a more
shallow ll moisture layer and hence we `should` end up drier
during the deep mixing this afternoon with peak heating. We could
also have some cloud cover from LA blow off this morning and again
possible with storms over LA this afternoon which would help to
lower temps below current forecast highs. CLL area may hit the 100
degree high temperature mark today though as cloud cover should be
lacking there this afternoon. So don`t expect heat index readings
above 107 today but moisture increases Saturday and depth does as
well and so heat index readings across the southern half of the
region will likely remain in the 104-107 throughout much of the
afternoon (barring rain cooling). Sunday more moisture and
continued hot July sun will probably push the heat index readings
up into the 108-110 degree range over the south. Then as drier air
thanks to the ridging mixes in Mon-Thu expect the heat index
numbers to come down a few degrees.
Saharan dust still over the area today but it should be thinning
noticeably by afternoon...will probably still have that hazy/brown
horizon but the air clarity should be improving throughout the
day. Next plume should thin and track into Mexico with little if
any impact here.
Drying has been going on for the last 30-45 days and soils and
vegetation showing it. Currently just one county (Grimes) with a
burn ban but through the next 7 days expect little if any drought
relieving rainfall to occur over the northern half of the region.
Texas Forest Service indicating KBDI to climb from the 400-630
range currently to 600-720 by the end of the month. The eastern
part of the state will likely be moving into a more wildfire prone
period.
45
MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to persist
through the weekend with high pressure over the eastern
Gulf/southeastern CONUS and lee troughing over the High Plains.
Winds will gradually become easterly at the beginning of next week
and persist through late week as the surface high over the
southeastern CONUS builds west. A few showers will also be possible
across the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours
over the next few days. Otherwise, tide levels within one half foot
of normal are expected through the weekend and increasing to
slightly above normal next week as easterly flow becomes established
with no significant impacts anticipated.
Huffman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 76 98 77 98 / 10 0 10 10 20
Houston (IAH) 98 78 96 79 97 / 10 0 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 92 82 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20
to 60 NM.
&&
$$
Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
-
A.V.
Thank you.tireman4 wrote:Welcome. Glad to you have you. We love our board here and make yourself at home!A.V. wrote:New member here. I will post periodically, and do all I can to contribute.
-
A.V.
Houston NWS is way too pessimistic!!!!
Just compare the forecast discussions for Austin/San Antonio NWS to that of Houston/Galveston NWS, and look at how optimistic the former NWS region is compared to the latter (despite being more at risk for summer drought):
Austin/San Antonio:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2#p2512482
Houston/Galveston:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 5#p2512485
These Houston/Galveston forecasters will have egg on their faces come next week. Just watch.
Just compare the forecast discussions for Austin/San Antonio NWS to that of Houston/Galveston NWS, and look at how optimistic the former NWS region is compared to the latter (despite being more at risk for summer drought):
Austin/San Antonio:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2#p2512482
Houston/Galveston:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 5#p2512485
These Houston/Galveston forecasters will have egg on their faces come next week. Just watch.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... nd-houston
Two Flavors of Record Heat: Deadhorse and Houston
~By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 4:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Hot nights in Houston
The eye-opener this month in southeast Texas isn’t that it got up into the 80s—it’s that the temperature has had trouble getting below that range. Last week, on July 5, Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport tied its all-time warm minimum with a steamy low of just 83°F. This came midway through a five-day stretch of lows at or above 80°F, all of them setting daily records. Weather records at the airport began only in 1969, but the 83°F also tied the all-time record for the entire Houston area for any daily low in July. The only higher daily minimum in the city’s official record is the 84°F low notched more than a century ago, on July 29, 1895. For this month through Wednesday, July 13, Houston has scored a remarkable nine days with low temperatures at or above 80°F. The most such lows in a single month is 14, in August 1964, so the city has a reasonable shot at breaking that record, as noted by Eric Berger at Space City Weather. Houston’s average temperature for the month through Wednesday (counting both highs and lows) is a sweltering 88.3°F, which is running almost a degree higher than the warmest July on record (87.5°F, set in 1980).
Two Flavors of Record Heat: Deadhorse and Houston
~By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 4:38 PM GMT on July 14, 2016
Hot nights in Houston
The eye-opener this month in southeast Texas isn’t that it got up into the 80s—it’s that the temperature has had trouble getting below that range. Last week, on July 5, Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport tied its all-time warm minimum with a steamy low of just 83°F. This came midway through a five-day stretch of lows at or above 80°F, all of them setting daily records. Weather records at the airport began only in 1969, but the 83°F also tied the all-time record for the entire Houston area for any daily low in July. The only higher daily minimum in the city’s official record is the 84°F low notched more than a century ago, on July 29, 1895. For this month through Wednesday, July 13, Houston has scored a remarkable nine days with low temperatures at or above 80°F. The most such lows in a single month is 14, in August 1964, so the city has a reasonable shot at breaking that record, as noted by Eric Berger at Space City Weather. Houston’s average temperature for the month through Wednesday (counting both highs and lows) is a sweltering 88.3°F, which is running almost a degree higher than the warmest July on record (87.5°F, set in 1980).
Yeah, the high DPs have taken their toll on the low temps
Some scattered storms under the building ridge with easterly flow Sun - Thursday. I don't expect them to survive N and W of Hempstead
GFS has the potential isolated showers through Aug 1: ≤ 1 in of rain through on average expected.
Reality sets in for the Hill Country. GFS now has nada rain through August 1. Things look kinda grim long term.
The Trump Card this time of year with ridging becoming stubborn is some tropical mischief riding under the ridge...hoping for a wave.
Austin - San Antonio
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Skies are beginning to become mostly cloudy across the eastern
half of the area overnight as persistent morning clouds develop.
Southerly flow continues with speeds around 5 to 15 mph with
temperatures in the 70s. An upper level ridge can be seen on water
vapor satellite imagery centered near southern New Mexico and a
shortwave on the northeast periphery moving through southern
Oklahoma. This disturbance sparked some convection, but all
activity should remain well north of South-Central Texas. For
today, highs will reach the upper 90s to 103 degrees with clearing
skies by this afternoon. Dewpoints mixed out a bit more yesterday
and should do so again today. This should keep heat indices below
105 degrees across most of the area. The ridge will continue to
build and encompass most of the southern CONUS by tomorrow
afternoon. High-res models are showing isolated showers or a
thunderstorm in the Coastal Plains tomorrow and will continue the
20 pop for tomorrow.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
The ridge is expected to strengthen as it becomes centered in the
central plains on Monday. This will allow onshore flow to continue
across the region with east/southeast winds from the surface
extending up to 500 mb. This will continue to support isolated sea
breeze activity possibly making it into the coastal plains in the
afternoon hours Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be
persistent throughout the long-term with highs mainly in the upper
90s to 102 degrees and lows in the lower to upper 70s. Heat index
values should remain below 107 degrees for most locations over the
next week.
Some scattered storms under the building ridge with easterly flow Sun - Thursday. I don't expect them to survive N and W of Hempstead
GFS has the potential isolated showers through Aug 1: ≤ 1 in of rain through on average expected.
Reality sets in for the Hill Country. GFS now has nada rain through August 1. Things look kinda grim long term.
The Trump Card this time of year with ridging becoming stubborn is some tropical mischief riding under the ridge...hoping for a wave.
Austin - San Antonio
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Skies are beginning to become mostly cloudy across the eastern
half of the area overnight as persistent morning clouds develop.
Southerly flow continues with speeds around 5 to 15 mph with
temperatures in the 70s. An upper level ridge can be seen on water
vapor satellite imagery centered near southern New Mexico and a
shortwave on the northeast periphery moving through southern
Oklahoma. This disturbance sparked some convection, but all
activity should remain well north of South-Central Texas. For
today, highs will reach the upper 90s to 103 degrees with clearing
skies by this afternoon. Dewpoints mixed out a bit more yesterday
and should do so again today. This should keep heat indices below
105 degrees across most of the area. The ridge will continue to
build and encompass most of the southern CONUS by tomorrow
afternoon. High-res models are showing isolated showers or a
thunderstorm in the Coastal Plains tomorrow and will continue the
20 pop for tomorrow.
LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
The ridge is expected to strengthen as it becomes centered in the
central plains on Monday. This will allow onshore flow to continue
across the region with east/southeast winds from the surface
extending up to 500 mb. This will continue to support isolated sea
breeze activity possibly making it into the coastal plains in the
afternoon hours Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will be
persistent throughout the long-term with highs mainly in the upper
90s to 102 degrees and lows in the lower to upper 70s. Heat index
values should remain below 107 degrees for most locations over the
next week.
be still my heart...
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para/#
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdspd
Meanwhile, moisture rich air along the Gulf Coast States along with daytime heating will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Western Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Monday evening.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx ... p_ndfd.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/para/#
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdspd
Meanwhile, moisture rich air along the Gulf Coast States along with daytime heating will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Western Gulf Coast to the Southeast through Monday evening.
http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx ... p_ndfd.gif
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 900 AM CDT
* AT 824 AM CDT...A WATERSPOUT IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO GALVESTON
ISLAND BETWEEN 61ST STREET AND 91ST STREET. ALL PERSONS SHOULD
EXIT THE BEACH AND TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. WATERSPOUTS
CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. SPOTTER CONFIRMATION OF
WATERSPOUT.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...
LA MARQUE...HITCHCOCK...GALVESTON PIER 21...BAYOU VISTA...
TIKI ISLAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...PELICAN ISLAND...
SCHLITTERBAHN...GALVESTON STATE PARK...THE STRAND...
SCHOLES FIELD...MOODY GARDENS AND OFFATTS BAYOU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 900 AM CDT
* AT 824 AM CDT...A WATERSPOUT IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO GALVESTON
ISLAND BETWEEN 61ST STREET AND 91ST STREET. ALL PERSONS SHOULD
EXIT THE BEACH AND TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. WATERSPOUTS
CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. SPOTTER CONFIRMATION OF
WATERSPOUT.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...
LA MARQUE...HITCHCOCK...GALVESTON PIER 21...BAYOU VISTA...
TIKI ISLAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...PELICAN ISLAND...
SCHLITTERBAHN...GALVESTON STATE PARK...THE STRAND...
SCHOLES FIELD...MOODY GARDENS AND OFFATTS BAYOU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
- Attachments
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19673
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Subtle changes in our sensible weather are expected today and tomorrow as a weak upper low has moved inland across NE Mexico and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A shear axis is analyzed just offshore of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast in SW Louisiana suggesting some increase in tropical moisture moving inland and as we have already seen in Galveston, tropical funnels are possible the next several days.
The longer range GFS Super Ensembles Day 11+ Analogs are hinting at an impressive heat wave developing across the Central/Northern Plains into the NE and the Mid Atlantic where temperatures may hit or exceed 100F in Cities such as New York City, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington DC and possibly Boston. We here in Texas and the Gulf Coast appear to be well beneath this expanding Heat Ridge, so expect increasing chances of heat of the day seabreeze showers and storms to develop. It appears the African dust is aimed more toward Central America and Mexico during the next week to 10 days which typically leads to less subsidence and greater chances for showers and storms to develop with the moistening of the mid levels of the atmosphere. It is interesting to note that pressures are trending lower in the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico as a bit more in the way of rising air and instability replace the Saharan Arid Layer. We will need to monitor any tropical waves moving across Africa as we end July and begin August as it appears conditions across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico may become somewhat more conducive for tropical development in about 2 weeks or so. We will continue to Update in our Hurricane Central Section for any potential Tropical Waves that may be worth monitoring as we march toward Peak Hurricane Season around Mid August to Mid September.
The longer range GFS Super Ensembles Day 11+ Analogs are hinting at an impressive heat wave developing across the Central/Northern Plains into the NE and the Mid Atlantic where temperatures may hit or exceed 100F in Cities such as New York City, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Washington DC and possibly Boston. We here in Texas and the Gulf Coast appear to be well beneath this expanding Heat Ridge, so expect increasing chances of heat of the day seabreeze showers and storms to develop. It appears the African dust is aimed more toward Central America and Mexico during the next week to 10 days which typically leads to less subsidence and greater chances for showers and storms to develop with the moistening of the mid levels of the atmosphere. It is interesting to note that pressures are trending lower in the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico as a bit more in the way of rising air and instability replace the Saharan Arid Layer. We will need to monitor any tropical waves moving across Africa as we end July and begin August as it appears conditions across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico may become somewhat more conducive for tropical development in about 2 weeks or so. We will continue to Update in our Hurricane Central Section for any potential Tropical Waves that may be worth monitoring as we march toward Peak Hurricane Season around Mid August to Mid September.
- Attachments
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksUCZE_2cS0
Katdaddy wrote:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 900 AM CDT
* AT 824 AM CDT...A WATERSPOUT IS ABOUT TO MOVE ONTO GALVESTON
ISLAND BETWEEN 61ST STREET AND 91ST STREET. ALL PERSONS SHOULD
EXIT THE BEACH AND TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. WATERSPOUTS
CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.
HAZARD...TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. SPOTTER CONFIRMATION OF
WATERSPOUT.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...
LA MARQUE...HITCHCOCK...GALVESTON PIER 21...BAYOU VISTA...
TIKI ISLAND...GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...PELICAN ISLAND...
SCHLITTERBAHN...GALVESTON STATE PARK...THE STRAND...
SCHOLES FIELD...MOODY GARDENS AND OFFATTS BAYOU.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx/status/7 ... 2638304256
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191700-
SAN JACINTO-POLK-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...
PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...
ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
...FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE REGION AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUD AND WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
FUNNELS IN THIS TYPE AIRMASS USUALLY ARE SHORT LASTING RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SHELTER AS THEY CAN AND SOMETIMES DO BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN
AND PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
WATERSPOUTS TYPICALLY FORM IN THE MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE COAST. DESPITE ANY MYTHS...THEY ARE HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS AND
AND BEACH GOERS AS THEY CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. IF
SUCH A FEATURE IS OBSERVED...MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS
APPARENT MOTION AND DO NOT TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH ONE. THOSE ON
THE BEACH...SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL IT HAS PASSED OR DISSIPATES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191700-
SAN JACINTO-POLK-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...
PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...
ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
...FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE REGION AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUD AND WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
FUNNELS IN THIS TYPE AIRMASS USUALLY ARE SHORT LASTING RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SHELTER AS THEY CAN AND SOMETIMES DO BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN
AND PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.
WATERSPOUTS TYPICALLY FORM IN THE MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE AND ALONG
THE COAST. DESPITE ANY MYTHS...THEY ARE HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS AND
AND BEACH GOERS AS THEY CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. IF
SUCH A FEATURE IS OBSERVED...MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS
APPARENT MOTION AND DO NOT TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH ONE. THOSE ON
THE BEACH...SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL IT HAS PASSED OR DISSIPATES.
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
TXZ213-172145-
HARRIS TX-
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREATER INWOOD...OR NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
IF OUTDOORS, SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM COMES TO AN END OR SAFELY PASSES. REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES FROM
A STORM - IF YOU CAN SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE… PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...
AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...SPRING BRANCH WEST...
SPRING BRANCH NORTH...MEMORIAL PARK...GREATER HEIGHTS… NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...NORTHEASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...
CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...ACRES HOME AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
TXZ213-172145-
HARRIS TX-
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREATER INWOOD...OR NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
IF OUTDOORS, SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM COMES TO AN END OR SAFELY PASSES. REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES FROM
A STORM - IF YOU CAN SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE… PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...
AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...SPRING BRANCH WEST...
SPRING BRANCH NORTH...MEMORIAL PARK...GREATER HEIGHTS… NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...NORTHEASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...
CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...ACRES HOME AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.
Yeah, there was a nice little seabreeze...but it slammed into the "Aggiedome" around Navasota per the usual summer Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football scenario... We could get an outflow boundary gust or two.
The underbelly of the ridge is a bit weak tomorrow. Hoping for better rain fishing then!
The underbelly of the ridge is a bit weak tomorrow. Hoping for better rain fishing then!
Katdaddy wrote:SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
TXZ213-172145-
HARRIS TX-
422 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...
AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GREATER INWOOD...OR NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
IF OUTDOORS, SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM COMES TO AN END OR SAFELY PASSES. REMEMBER THAT LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES FROM
A STORM - IF YOU CAN SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE… PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...
AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...SPRING BRANCH WEST...
SPRING BRANCH NORTH...MEMORIAL PARK...GREATER HEIGHTS… NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY AREA...NORTHEASTERN ADDICKS PARK TEN...HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...
CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...ACRES HOME AND FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING.
On cue - a cool breeze from the ghost of a collapsed storm.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19673
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Another day with a chance of scattered showers and storms as additional tropical moisture surges inland associated with a shear axis across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Rain chances decreasing the rest of the workweek as a stout Upper Ridge builds across the Central United States and expands East.
Interestingly the ECMWF for the past couple of cycles is suggesting a fairly decent weakness with lowering pressures rounding the Eastern flank of the Upper Ridge and moving West across the Gulf around the 26th to 28th of July. The GFS does show this Easterly wave, but is not as aggressive as the ECMWF...but it does merit monitoring as the general Hemispheric Pattern may favor such a feature in the longer range. We will continue monitoring just in case the computer models trend are a possibility as we near the end of the month.
Interestingly the ECMWF for the past couple of cycles is suggesting a fairly decent weakness with lowering pressures rounding the Eastern flank of the Upper Ridge and moving West across the Gulf around the 26th to 28th of July. The GFS does show this Easterly wave, but is not as aggressive as the ECMWF...but it does merit monitoring as the general Hemispheric Pattern may favor such a feature in the longer range. We will continue monitoring just in case the computer models trend are a possibility as we near the end of the month.
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