Page 4 of 91
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:24 pm
by mckinne63
We are getting in on some of the rain action in Stafford today! We missed out here the last few days. Hearing rumblings of thunder.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 12:32 pm
by srainhoutx
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017
Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-
1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORT BEND AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...
At 1226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
northern Sugar Land, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place,
Richmond, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point
Village, Town West, Pecan Grove, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area,
Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West, First Colony, Addicks Park
Ten, Spring Valley, Mission Bend, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area and
Neartown / Montrose.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:12 pm
by srainhoutx
We are getting a nice thundershower here in NW Harris County. Meanwhile, 90L continues to organize and the NHC has raised the chances for Tropical Development. Personally I believe the chances should have been higher with reports of near Tropical Storm strength already being indicated within the squalls. That would require Pre Tropical Cyclone Advisories and we remember how confusing that was with Cindy.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea are beginning to show some signs of organization, and satellite wind data indicate that the wave is producing a small area of winds that are just below tropical storm force. Additional development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends more than a thousand miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system has failed to consolidate so far, environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support some development while this system moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Berg
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:00 pm
by Rip76
Man we've had a lot of Mexico riders the last few years.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:07 pm
by srainhoutx
TropicsWatch @TropicsWatch · 45m45 minutes ago
Our Disturbance 23 (#90L) is looking like a wave that's in the process of developing an LLC. I'd say development chances 90%+.
08052017 TropicsWatch DGfgF13UAAA4JLK.jpg
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:56 pm
by DoctorMu
srainhoutx wrote:Mike Ventrice of WSI via Twitter allows us to visually see the various 51 individual members of the ECMWF EPS. Clearly The Mexico Gulf Coast is the most likely scenario for eventual landfall, but you cane see a few members keep the system over water a little longer and into South Texas.
08052017 00Z EC EPS Members DGdm0LAUIAADtzO.jpg
Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Invest 99L losing steam in the recent ECMWF EPS run- 90L still likely to spin up into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche.
That's a consensus.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:40 pm
by davidiowx
DoctorMu wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Mike Ventrice of WSI via Twitter allows us to visually see the various 51 individual members of the ECMWF EPS. Clearly The Mexico Gulf Coast is the most likely scenario for eventual landfall, but you cane see a few members keep the system over water a little longer and into South Texas.
08052017 00Z EC EPS Members DGdm0LAUIAADtzO.jpg
Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Invest 99L losing steam in the recent ECMWF EPS run- 90L still likely to spin up into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche.
That's a consensus.
Way to early to call any model runs a consensus. A center reformation would change a lot of things. It sure has gotten its act together today.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:34 pm
by DoctorMu
davidiowx wrote:DoctorMu wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Mike Ventrice of WSI via Twitter allows us to visually see the various 51 individual members of the ECMWF EPS. Clearly The Mexico Gulf Coast is the most likely scenario for eventual landfall, but you cane see a few members keep the system over water a little longer and into South Texas.
08052017 00Z EC EPS Members DGdm0LAUIAADtzO.jpg
Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice · 2h2 hours ago
Invest 99L losing steam in the recent ECMWF EPS run- 90L still likely to spin up into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche.
That's a consensus.
Way to early to call any model runs a consensus. A center reformation would change a lot of things. It sure has gotten its act together today.
You mean "accurate." It's a "consensus," by definition because multiple models say the same thing - unusually bunched. It does not mean the vast majority will be correct. There's no irony emoticon.
Having said that chances are that a ridge will move into mid to east Texas block northward movement. We'll see.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:35 am
by srainhoutx
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:04 am
by srainhoutx
Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice · 15m15 minutes ago
Growing support for #90L to reach Hurricane intensity later this week, putting Mexico at a higher risk for a landfalling hurricane.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:12 pm
by Rip76
srainhoutx wrote:It looks like a relatively quiet day ahead for SE Texas with some mid level capping I place that likely will inhibit thunderstorm development. There is a possibility that areas to our SW along Matagorda, Jackson and Wharton Counties my have a better chance for some storms to fire off later today.
Looks like it may be our area today. (SE Texas/Houston)
Looking out at these towers building, I just sat and thought about 2009-2013(ish), where we didn't see many storms at all.
It was so strange.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:12 pm
by mckinne63
We had a brief shower late morning here in Stafford. Skies are looking very cloudy and gloomy. It looks like it is missing a good chance to rain!
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:22 pm
by Texaspirate11
NHC will be initiating advisories by 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Re: August 2017: Tracking The Tropics/INVEST 90L Caribbean S
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:34 pm
by srainhoutx
Getting our second thunderstorm of the day in NW Harris County.
The National Hurricane Center will begin issuing Advisories for TD 7 at 5:00 PM EDT.
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ PTC #7 NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:59 pm
by srainhoutx
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017
Surface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of
low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. However, this system is
likely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated
to enable the issuance of a tropical storm warning and watch for
Yucatan and Belize respectively. The scatterometer pass and NOAA
data buoy observations indicate that the maximum winds are near
30 kt. The disturbance has been experiencing westerly vertical
shear due to a nearby upper-level low and this has been inhibiting
development. Global model predictions show that this low will soon
dissipate and an upper-level anticyclone will become established
over the area. Therefore, strengthening is likely with the main
impediment being interaction with land. The official intensity
forecast is a little above the model consensus. It should be
noted that the system could become a hurricane between 72 and 96
hours, i.e. prior to reaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.
Since the center lacks definition, the initial location and motion
are quite uncertain, and my best guess for the current motion is
290/10. The steering pattern for the disturbance/tropical cyclone
is expected to be fairly straightforward and persistent for the
next few days. A general west-northwestward track is expected to
continue until landfall in mainland Mexico. The official track
forecast is generally a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 15.6N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 16.6N 83.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 19.0N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/1800Z 19.9N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/1800Z 21.2N 97.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ PTC #7 NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 6:31 pm
by srainhoutx
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ PTC #7 NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:07 pm
by brooksgarner
Brooks here:
wg8dlm5-1.GIF
Waiting for Franklin to form... No threat to Houston, according to every computer model I can conjure, thanks to the steering currents around that subtropical ridge centered over the Bahamas.
potential_7.png
See you at 10pm on KHOU...
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ PTC #7 NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 9:34 pm
by brooksgarner
Capture.JPG
Good evening guys... I'm tracking the chance for morning rain/storms tomorrow, if a thunderstorm complex south of Dallas survives its trip 190 miles southeast... HRRR says yes.
5987d13a64f72685453794.gif
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ PTC #7 NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:41 pm
by Texaspirate11
HGX NWS DISCO TONIGHT
Despite the buzz on social media, sharknado threat for Southeast
Texas will be nil tonight.
Re: August 2017: Rain Chances/ TS Franklin NW Caribbean Sea
Posted: Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:14 am
by srainhoutx
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0640 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 223 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE VALID 070622Z - 071222Z SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL TX. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 2.5" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...A WEST-NORTHWEST/EAST- SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL TX, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~15 KTS, WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME BROADENING IN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ON NON-OPERATIONAL GOES-16 INFRARED IMAGERY. THIS IS OCCURRING NORTH OF WHAT HAS BEEN A PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF SAN ANGELO. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS INCREASING IN THIS AREA, NOW UP TO 20 KTS PER THE DEL RIO TX VAD WIND PROFILE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ~20 KTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.6-2.1" EXIST IN THIS AREA PER GPS VALUES. RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE INFLOW AT 850 HPA INCREASES TOWARDS 35 KTS AND BEGINS TO VEER. AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TX, THE RAINFALL/ THUNDERSTORM BAND COULD BROADEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS 79F DEWPOINTS NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON TX. FORWARD PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY SHOULD TRY TO PROGRESS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KTS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS. SOME BACKBUILDING AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS EXPECTED WITH TIME. THE GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY THE BEST RIGHT NOW IS THE 00Z WRF NSSL, WHICH SHOWS LOCAL MAXIMA OF 5-6", WHICH COULD BE A TOUCH HIGH. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR MERGE ALONG WITH LOCAL MAXIMA AROUND 5" OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH COULD EXCEED THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE REGION. ROTH ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...